The Five: Meet rookies vying for Rookie of the Year honors

With the FedExCup Playoffs on the horizon, the race for end-of-season awards will start to enter the forefront of the conversation. The Player of the Year conversation is all but wrapped up as Scottie Scheffler continues to run through the rest of the TOUR, but there’s another race very much up for grabs: the Arnold Palmer Award, given to the top rookie every season.

Eric Cole won Rookie of the Year last season, edging out a late-year charge from Ludvig Åberg. Cole, 35, was the second-oldest player to earn that honor (Todd Hamilton was 38 when he won in 2004).

The race is much more robust this season. Cole did not win in his rookie campaign and didn’t have a real challenger until Åberg’s run during the FedExCup Fall. Three rookies have already won on the PGA TOUR this season, matching the most Full-Field Event victories from a rookie class since 2018-19.

That sets the stage for an intriguing second half of 2024. Will the award go to one of those three? Or could another rookie step into the limelight?

Here are five rookies vying for the Arnold Palmer Award.

1. Matthieu Pavon

The Frenchman is the presumed favorite in the Rookie of the Year race. His win at the Farmers Insurance Open put him on the map, but what he’s done since has solidified him as a legit contender.

Pavon finished third the following week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, briefly moving to No. 1 in the FedExCup. He finished T12 at the Masters, an impressive feat on a course famous for dispatching rookies. Then he played in the final pairing in the final round of the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2, clearly the underdog as he battled Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay.

End-of-season FedExCup rank is often a determining factor for Rookie of the Year, especially during a tight race. Pavon is the frontrunner, 13th in the season-long standings. With a trio of rookie winners, that could prove to be the difference.

2. Nick Dunlap

No singular performance from a rookie has been as impressive as Dunlap’s win at The American Express.

Then an amateur, Dunlap shot a third-round 60 (tying the lowest round ever by an amateur) and outlasted Sam Burns and Christiaan Bezuidenhout on Sunday to become the first amateur to win on TOUR in more than 30 years. He wasn’t even considered a rookie until he turned pro days later. Life quickly changed for the college sophomore as he turned pro days later, swapping class time for range time.

He’s spent the last several months adjusting to TOUR life, racking up mixed results. He carded his first top-10 since the victory at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Because of Dunlap’s amateur status, he didn’t receive the 500 FedExCup points given out to a winner. It’s necessary context, considering Dunlap is currently 87th in the standings. He’d be safely inside the top 50 if he were eligible to earn those points for his win.

It’s important to remember Rookie of the Year is voted on by TOUR members, who are often wooed more by talent than pure results. That should play in Dunlap’s favor down the stretch. The 20-year-old did something no amateur had done in decades. That will go a long way in the voting process, but will it be enough?

3. Jake Knapp

There’s no TOUR player more popular than Knapp, whose vibes are universally loved and his swing is admired daily on social media.

He won earlier this year at the Mexico Open at Vidanta and finished T4 the next week at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, where he drew praise from McIlroy.

“He could definitely be a star,” McIlroy said. “It looks like he’s got the full package.”

Knapp had another chance to win at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson but shot 70 in the final round to drop to eighth. But he’s proven hot and cold through much of the season. That showing in Texas was his most recent top-30 finish. Still 44th in the FedExCup, Knapp projects to make the Playoffs and give Pavon a run for the top rookie in the standings. He will need a few more results to challenge Pavon, but Knapp’s promise is captivating.

It would also mark the second consecutive season that the Rookie of the Year is 30 or older. Knapp turned 30 in May.

4. Michael Thorbjornsen

At first glance, it's understandable to say it’s outrageous that Thorbjornsen is in contention for this year’s Rookie of the Year race, but you don’t have to look far for an example of the possibility.

Ludvig Åberg nearly unseated Eric Cole as last year’s Rookie of the Year despite joining the TOUR midway through the year after finishing No. 1 in PGA TOUR University. Thorbjornsen is in the same situation and boasts the pedigree to believe it’s possible.

Thorbjornsen won a Drive, Chip & Putt title at Augusta National and then the U.S. Junior at another major venue, Baltusrol Golf Club; he beat a future PGA TOUR winner, Akshay Bhatia, in the final match. Five years ago, he made a U.S. Open cut at Pebble Beach, the second-youngest to do so since World War II. He also contended at a PGA TOUR event two years ago but was not eligible to collect the prize money for his fourth-place finish.

Thorbjornsen finished T39 in his pro debut at the Travelers Championship, highlighted by a second-round 64. He missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week but is in the field at the John Deere Classic.

At last year’s John Deere, Åberg broke through with his first top-10, carding a final-round 63 to finish T4. Thorbjornsen also played the event as an amateur and finished T17.

It will only take one top finish from Thorbjornsen to elevate into the Rookie of the Year conversation. He also benefits from the awards running through the end of the calendar year, so Thorbjornsen will have the entire fall schedule to catch up.

5. Alejandro Tosti

This year’s Rookie of the Year race is currently a three-horse race. Outside of Pavon, Knapp and Dunlap, another formidable contender has not emerged. Tosti’s argument centers more around what he could do than what he’s already done.

It was at this point last year that Tosti caught fire on the Korn Ferry Tour to earn his TOUR card. Tosti carded six top 10s in eight events from June to August, capitalized with a win at the Pinnacle Bank Championship presented by Aetna that confirmed his elevation to the TOUR.

Tosti has the runway to make a similar move this year.

He’s come close to winning already this season. He finished T2 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, one shot shy of Stephan Jaeger.

The tournament is remembered for Scottie Scheffler’s missed putt on the 18th hole, but Tosti was right in the thick of contention through the 72nd hole. He bogeyed the 18th to fall out of a possible playoff.