The Five: Presidents Cup check-in

Nick Taylor’s clinching putt at last year’s RBC Canadian Open will shine brightly in Canadian golf lore for decades. The return to Hamilton Golf and Country Club, where Rory McIlroy won five years ago, for this week’s iteration of Canada’s national open offers the potential for more histrionics.

Then, of course, there’s the impending Presidents Cup, which Royal Montreal Golf Club will host in September. Suffice it to say that Canadian golf will have an extended moment in the spotlight. With the TOUR in Canada this week and the Presidents Cup now just four months away, let’s check in on the projected teams and the biggest questions as the Presidents Cup draws closer.

Each team will include six automatic qualifiers and six captain’s picks. The automatic qualifiers for the U.S. Team are determined by a weighted FedExCup points system from the last two years. The International Team’s automatic qualifiers are determined by the top six eligible golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking.

U.S. Team standings (through the Charles Schwab Challenge)

1. Scottie Scheffler, 10,601 points

2. Xander Schauffele, 6,170 points

3. Wyndham Clark, 4,843 points

4. Collin Morikawa, 4,443 points

5. Sahith Theegala, 3,945 points

6. Max Homa, 3,640 points

7. Patrick Cantlay, 3,288 points

8. Brian Harman, 3,199 points

9. Chris Kirk, 3,139 points

10. Keegan Bradley, 2,761 points

11. Russell Henley, 2,662 points

12. J.T. Poston, 2,654 points

International Team standings (through the Charles Schwab Challenge)

1. Hideki Matsuyama

2. Jason Day

3. Byeong Hun An

4. Tom Kim

5. Nick Taylor

6. Sungjae Im

7. Min Woo Lee

8. Si Woo Kim

9. Corey Conners

10. Emiliano Grillo

11. Adam Hadwin

12. Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Here are five storylines to follow as the countdown to the Presidents Cup continues.

1. Can the Canadians make a charge?

Currently, only Taylor is projected to qualify automatically, leaving International Team captain and fellow Canadian Mike Weir with a difficult decision: how many more Canadians should make the team? Weir will have to analyze current form and the potential advantages and pitfalls of choosing a Canadian-heavy roster for an event with a Canadian-heavy crowd.

There is a large crop of players to choose from. Corey Conners is ninth in the standings and played in the last Presidents Cup. Taylor Pendrith was also part of that losing International Team at Quail Hollow in 2022 and jumped to 14th in the standings after his win earlier this spring at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. Then there’s Adam Hadwin and Mackenzie Hughes, 11th and 18th in the standings, respectively. Hadwin has played in two Presidents Cups, while Hughes has yet to compete in the event.

There’s a world where half the International Team’s roster is Canadian, particularly if someone like Adam Svensson can also find form this summer. That would set up a historic Presidents Cup in their home country, with a healthy dose of camaraderie, a priority that has recently increased in importance for the Internationals. But Weir must think with his head, not just his heart. If there are golfers playing better and more suitable to the course, he may have to bypass a Canadian player(s) to give the team a better chance to finally defeat the Americans. The next few months will decide just how hard of a decision Weir will have,

2. Are Spieth and Thomas’ spots in jeopardy?

Over the last decade of American team events, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas have emerged as quasi-player captains with their strong on-course play and off-course leadership. They set the tone for the team room and have remained constants as other players have come and gone from the team room.

Yet there’s a conceivable reality where neither player wears red, white and blue this fall. Thomas is 16th in the Presidents Cup standings; Spieth is 24th. If that holds, it’s fair to wonder whether their leadership roles and team-event cache are enough to justify spots on the roster.

The same situation arose leading into the Ryder Cup a year ago. Thomas’ form dropped precipitously over the summer, but he still earned a captain’s pick and a vote of confidence from Zach Johnson. Thomas played solid but unremarkable golf, finishing 1-2-1 over the week. He was one of six Americans to earn more than one point. Spieth went 0-2-2. Would captain Jim Fuyrk opt for the status quo and bank on Thomas and Spieth returning to their winning ways? Spieth and Thomas are a combined 22-7-3 in Presidents Cup competition, after all. Or is it fair to wonder whether they can still conjure that same magic and should instead heed a strong pipeline of Americans raring to go?

If Spieth and Thomas elevate their play this summer, it’s likely a moot point. But if they remain inconsistent, Furyk and his assistant captains face a fascinating decision: Should they embrace a new wave of players or return to what has worked before?

3. Predicting the rising star for each roster…

At the 2022 Presidents Cup, it was Max Homa and Tom Kim who sparked their teams in their rookie appearance. Homa went a perfect 4-0-0 in the U.S. Team’s victory, while Kim’s infectious energy inspired the rest of the Internationals.

Every team event seems to produce these stories. At the Ryder Cup last fall, it was Ludvig Åberg for the Europeans and Homa again for the Americans.

So who are the top candidates for a Presidents Cup breakthrough?

Sahith Theegala should be at the top of the list for the Americans. He is projected to automatically qualify and appear in his first team event as a professional. His short game touch and putting prowess forecast as an ideal playing partner in every format, and his endearing personality could be a fruitful rallying cry. Theegala is the only American projected to auto-qualify who has not appeared in a team event before, making him the favorite for this exercise. Akshay Bhatia could also be a candidate, though he likely needs another win or a string of excellent golf to garner consideration. He is currently 20th on the points list.

The pool is larger for the Internationals, primed for another year of roster turnover. Min Woo Lee is seventh in the standings and offers a similar emotional template to Kim in 2022: a confident, competitive and eccentric young player who isn’t afraid of an American team that has dominated for decades. However, his game is much different than Kim’s, as Lee heavily relies on his prowess off the tee. The International team hasn’t given much away about Royal Montreal and how it might set up, but if distance has an outsized advantage, expect Lee to thrive.

4. Can former International standouts find form?

Adam Scott hasn’t missed a Presidents Cup since 2001, and he’s almost assuredly going to play for the Internationals this fall, barring injury or a complete loss of form. But count Scott among the players captain Weir is hoping will kick it into gear before the end of the PGA TOUR season.

Scott is currently 13th in the Presidents Cup standings and one of four players who earned at least two points for the Internationals at Quail Hollow Club but is not currently projected to qualify for this year’s event on merit.

Scott, Si Woo Kim, Cam Davis and K.H. Lee were four of the most successful performers on a spunky 2022 International squad that put a scare into the Americans, earning six of the team’s 12.5 total points. None of those four are inside the top-six and only Si Woo Kim is inside the top-12. Tom Kim and Im are the only players who earned two or more points and project to return.

The International Team enters this year’s Presidents Cup with good mojo, but part of that disappears if some of those top performers don’t return. Weir will be rooting for many players to have strong summers, but put those four at the top of the list. They’ve shown they can compete on the big stage, and that experience is an asset.

5. Ryder Cup hangover?

Will the U.S. Team’s dispiriting loss to Europe at the 2023 Ryder Cup linger into another team event? It’s an open question that won’t be answered until the Presidents Cup begins. The U.S. hasn’t lost a Presidents Cup for more than a quarter-century, but they have hardly looked as vulnerable as they did in Italy last fall.

Their confidence undoubtedly took a hit, and with the Internationals seemingly gaining momentum with every passing Presidents Cup, are the Americans finally ripe for the picking? Maybe, but it’s hard to predict that when the Americans have Scottie Scheffler, far-and-away the best player in the world, alongside reigning PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele and reigning U.S. Open winner Wyndham Clark.

Scheffler was one of three Americans who didn’t win the 2023 Ryder Cup match. Schauffele, Clark and Morikawa combined for a 3-7-1 record. Given their current form, don’t expect a repeat.