The Five: Absurd stats that explain Scottie Scheffler’s dominance

HILTON HEAD ISLAND, S.C. – A sly smile emerged as Brian Harman sat Tuesday for his pre-tournament press conference at the RBC Heritage. A reporter was starting to ask about Scottie Scheffler, the hottest golfer in the world.

“Is any part of you surprised that Scottie is playing this week with everything going on, and is there a part of you that hopes he doesn't?” the report asked.

Harman chuckled. “Yeah, there's lots of parts of me that hope he doesn't play,” he said.

Scheffler is the new benchmark with which the rest of the PGA TOUR measures itself. The rest of the TOUR knows it. Harman’s response was part joke, part honest admission. Scheffler only needs his “B” game to contend and win, Harman continued. That’s a scary proposition.

Scheffler has won three times this year, including THE PLAYERS Championship and the Masters. He’s the first since Tiger Woods to win those two high-profile tournaments in the same season and the first since Woods to win them both multiple times.

The Scheffler-Woods comparisons are growing more frequent with every tournament Scheffler wins. It’s not that Scheffler is as dominant as Woods. He’s just the most dominant since Woods.

And it doesn’t seem to be slowing down. As Scheffler looks to build on his historic season with more victories at Signature Events and major championships, it’s an excellent time to take stock of the history in the making. Here are The Five stats that explain Scheffler’s dominance.

1. Locked at the top of the world ranking

Scheffler has already spent the last 47 weeks atop the Official World Golf Ranking, and he’s not going anywhere anytime soon.

With his win at the Masters, Scheffler further stretched his lead to a point that is likely insurmountable in 2024. The win elevated Scheffler’s average point total to 13.99, with more than a six-point lead over No. 2 Rory McIlroy.

The minutiae of the point totals are hard to follow, so here’s the necessary context to understand the feat: Scheffler’s gap over No. 2 is larger than any world No. 1 has had since Tiger Woods in 2009 when Woods held an eight-point lead. Woods amassed that lead during his record 281 consecutive weeks at world No. 1.

Scheffler has a long way to go to reach that sustained level of dominance, but what he’s doing right now is on par with any stretch of golf played in the modern era.

Calculating OWGR projections can be a bit fickle. There are so many variables week-to-week about field strength and eventual outcomes, but world ranking expert Nosferatu put it in the context of what is needed to dethrone Scheffler. Nosferatu wrote on social media this week that McIlroy would need to win “three majors plus some extra” to overtake Scheffler. That also assumes Scheffler isn’t playing well.

So, get used to Scheffler at the top. It’s going to stay that way for a long time.

2. It’s been years since Scheffler’s last poor iron performance… literally

Scheffler’s ball-striking is his superpower on the golf course. There have been weeks when the putter has failed him or his driver has been wayward. Finding a week when Scheffler’s iron play has abandoned him is nearly impossible.

It’s what makes him special. Every top player has a superpower, but Scheffler’s is more consistent than any other player’s.

In fact, the last time Scheffler lost strokes to the field with his approach play was the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. That’s a streak of 36 events spanning more than 600 days.

To put it in perspective, McIlroy is widely considered the best off-the-tee game on TOUR. He lost strokes off-the-tee at THE PLAYERS last month. Collin Morikawa, one of the players thought to rival Scheffler’s approach play, has lost strokes with his approach play in three events this season. Hideki Matsuyama, the TOUR leader in SG: Around the Green, has lost strokes in that category twice this year. Taylor Montgomery, the TOUR leader in SG: Putting, has had two weeks where he lost strokes on the green.

No player more consistently gets more out of their best skill than Scheffler. It’s the reason he has such an incredibly high floor.

3. Best of both worlds

Scheffler leads the PGA TOUR in both birdie average (5.43 per round) and bogey avoidance (1.6 per round). It’s a lethal combo that further explains why Scheffler’s scoring average (68.8) is a full shot lower than No. 2 Xander Schauffele (69.9).

It’s made possible because of the specific type of dominance Scheffler deploys. He is the best iron player in the world. He also has one of the best short games, a borderline unfair combination. Scheffler hardly ever puts himself in a spot of bother. When he does, he is better equipped than any to get up and down for par.

Scheffler upends the widely accepted notion that a byproduct of making birdies is running into bogeys along the way. Scheffler is the only player on TOUR inside the top 10 in both birdie average and bogey avoidance. While others need to be aggressive to notch five birdies a round, Scheffler runs into birdies by the sheer, consistent force of his ball-striking.

Sure, Scheffler could attack pins that others don’t dare take on. That happens occasionally, but Scheffler is making the smart play more often than not. He’s hitting the fat sides of greens, keeping the ball underneath the hole and assuring he doesn’t hit it near the trouble. It is death by 1000 paper cuts. He leads the PGA TOUR in Greens in Regulation and is sixth in Proximity to the hole. Putting statistics be damned, with those numbers Scheffler finds birdies regardless of whether the putter is cooperating.

4. Always in the red

The Masters cumulatively played 568 over-par across four rounds. Scheffler didn’t contribute. He hasn’t at any point this season, not for a tournament or a round. Scheffler has carded zero over-par rounds this season. His second-round 72 at Augusta National Golf Club was his worst score of his season. He has more wins (three) than rounds over par (zero).

Here’s how Scheffler stacks up to some of his peers:

McIlroy – Eight rounds over par

Schauffele – Four rounds over par

Wyndham Clark – Six rounds over par

Hovland – Five rounds over par

It’s an encapsulation of the Scheffler experience. He doesn’t have bad rounds often and when he does, by his standards, he knows how to manage them.

5. FedExCup frontrunner

Scheffler finished second in the 2022-23 FedExCup Regular Season standings, amassing 3,146 points before the Playoffs last August. Second only to Jon Rahm, Scheffler held an 800-point advantage over McIlroy in third. That was unquestionably a dominant season, and somehow, it’s not even close to as impressive as this season.

Scheffler has already outpaced his 2022-23 season-long points total. After his Masters victory, Scheffler has amassed 3,215 points. He’s accumulated in nine events what it took him 20 events to do a year ago. Then there’s how it looks compared to the rest of the FedExCup. Scheffler has more than double the FedExCup points than No. 2 Clark. Scheffler has more than triple the points of No. 8 Byeong Hun An.

Clark would need to win multiple more Signature Events (and then some) to reach Scheffler’s current point total.

At this pace, it won’t be the race to the FedExCup; it will be a slow march to King Scheffler's coronation.