The Five: Tracking top-50 FedExCup bubble in Houston

Mackenzie Hughes arrived at the 18th hole Sunday at the Valspar Championship knowing he wouldn’t win. Two bogeys on his back nine kept him in neutral while behind him, Peter Malnati and Cameron Young raced past with birdies.

So when Hughes birdied the 72nd hole, sinking a 9-foot curler to close his tournament, there was no celebratory fist pump or tearful interview. Hughes would have to wait for his third TOUR win. But the putt had a critical impact. It moved Hughes to 9-under and into a tie for third. The difference in that stroke was worth nearly $200,000 and 58.5 FedExCup points.

Three hours earlier, Sami Valimaki finished his round. The TOUR rookie entered the week 50th in the FedExCup standings. Thanks to three birdies on the back nine, Valimaki moved from T61 to T45 on the leaderboard and accumulated enough FedExCup points to hold onto the No. 50 spot.

Still in the early stages of the year, these lesser-discussed moments don’t hold much weight. In three months, one putt or a string of late birdies will be crucial. As the 2024 PGA TOUR season rolls on, the intrigue of the new schedule and format, and its ramifications, will grow. Securing a spot in the top 125 of the FedExCup remains the baseline for status. That locks up a place in all Full-Field Events and THE PLAYERS Championship for the following season. But it’s the top-50 distinction that most TOUR pros are chasing. The introduction of Signature Events, and its qualification system, has added a new wrinkle for fans and another carrot to chase for pros. Finishing inside the top 50 guarantees players a spot in every Signature Event for the following year. The players who finished inside the top 50 a year ago don’t want to drop off, while the rest of the TOUR membership aims to grab one of those coveted spots. Hughes represents the former; Valimaki represents the latter. Hughes finished 50th in the 2022-23 standings while Valimaki is holding down that final spot in this year’s standings.

The PGA TOUR projected a 34-38% turnover in the top-50 FedExCup standings year-over-year. In other words, between 17-19 players are expected to cycle out of the 2022-23 top 50, with a new crop of players taking their place. Through 13 events, that projection is holding. There are currently 19 players in the top 50 of the FedExCup that didn’t finish inside the top 50 a year ago. They are listed below:

This list will change in the coming months. Top players on the outside will work their way back into the top 50 while other surprise stories will break through.

This week's edition of The Five takes stock of the current FedExCup landscape, highlighting five players on the top 50 bubble and setting the stage for the drama to come later this season.

Keith Mitchell

Current FedExCup position: 58th
2022-23 FedExCup position: 69th

It was a costly Sunday at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club for Mitchell. He entered the day with a two-shot lead, in prime position to claim his second PGA TOUR win. But the final round of the Valspar Championship went south quickly for the Chattanooga, Tennessee, native. Mitchell made four bogeys on his front nine and carded a Sunday 77 to fall back into a tie for 16th. That was enough to improve his position in the FedExCup from 62nd to 58th, but it could have been much better. A top-10 finish would have moved Mitchell inside the top 50. A victory likely would have locked up a top-50 spot for the rest of the season. Instead, he remains on the outside.

Mitchell has put together a solid season. He’s missed just one cut and is on pace to set a career-low in missed weekends. He has five top-25s in nine starts with two top-10s but lacks that top result needed to vault himself in the standings.

If Mitchell can maintain his approach play, where he currently ranks inside the top 10 in strokes gained, it’s likely just a matter of time before it all comes together. Mitchell prioritized that area of his game this offseason, particularly distance control. Mitchell had not finished inside the top 100 in SG: Approach in his career.

“I was technically losing my card almost every year in Strokes Gained: Approach,” Mitchell said last week. “That's just unacceptable out here. Especially when I feel like I have the technique to do it if I can hit my driver like I do. So it was all distance control. I learned that, fortunately. I hate that it took this long, but it's better late than never.”

Shane Lowry

Current FedExCup position: 30th
2022-23 FedExCup position: 96th

Justin Thomas received much of the attention for his lackluster 2022-23 PGA TOUR season, but Lowry was in the same situation. The Irishman missed the FedExCup Playoffs and did not play any FedExCup Fall events. That hasn’t hindered him much in 2024.

At No. 30 in the current FedExCup standings, Lowry would qualify for the TOUR Championship if the season ended today. He has two top-fives this season (a T4 at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches and third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard) and finished T19 at THE PLAYERS Championship. Lowry had only one top 10 all of last season.

Lowry is third in SG: Approach, fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green and sixth in SG: Total. That’s a recipe for success. Lowry is quickly distancing himself from the anxiety of life on the top 50 bubble.

Tony Finau

Current FedExCup position: 57th
2022-23 FedExCup position: 19th

Finau is one of the 19 golfers who were inside of the top 50 last year but are outside of that benchmark in the current standings. Here’s a full list of those golfers:

The list includes a bevy of notable players, including Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland, though both find themselves inside the top 10 in the Official World Golf Ranking. Eligible PGA TOUR members inside the top 30 of the OWGR earn exemptions into Signature Events. McIlroy and Hovland would need to sustain long stretches of poor performance before falling outside the top 30.

Finau, however, is No. 30 in the world. He’s fallen 10 spots since the start of 2024 and could conceivably fall further if he doesn’t finish inside the top 50 of the FedExCup. His results this season have been solid but he’s lacking the top finishes that accumulate the most points. The six-time PGA TOUR winner has one top 10 this season (T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open) but has missed just one cut in eight starts. He is 57th in the FedExCup.

Finau can get back into the top 50 as soon as this week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He is the defending champion of the event, though his win came when the tournament was hosted in the fall, not the spring. Memorial Park Golf Course is expected to play slightly differently with the changing conditions, but Finau’s good vibes will remain.

Nicolai Højgaard

Current FedExCup position: 48th
2022-23 FedExCup position: N/A

Højgaard made a big initial splash, finishing runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open in his first start as a PGA TOUR member. That result has buoyed the young Dane’s start to the year, which has been a bit underwhelming since. He hasn’t registered a top 30 in his last five starts and has missed the cut in his previous two events. But the talent remains undeniable.

Højgaard, 23, was the youngest participant in last year’s Ryder Cup. He won the DP World Tour Championship, the European circuit’s flagship event, to earn his PGA TOUR card. That Højgaard, a first-year member, has hit a few snags to begin the year is understandable. But that early season result at Torrey Pines will only carry him so far. Højgaard is 48th in the FedExCup standings and will soon be surpassed if he doesn’t find his form.

Doug Ghim

Current FedExCup position: 49th
2022-23 FedExCup position: 123rd

As I wrote last week, Doug Ghim is in a rather peculiar position. At No. 49 in the standings, Ghim is the only player in the top 50 who has not played in a Signature Event this season.

Ghim’s situation is a learning lesson, illustrative of the new hierarchy on the PGA TOUR. To get into next year’s Signature Events automatically, you’ll likely need to play yourself into a few this season. Or you'll need to play consistently good golf, like Ghim has. Until the Valspar, where Ghim finished T67, the 27-year-old had rattled off five consecutive top-20 finishes. He is seventh in SG: Total and improved in every strokes gained category from last year.

Ghim is not projected to qualify for the RBC Heritage via the Aon Swing 5 or Aon Next 10, but the American is in the field at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. If he can continue his strong play, it’s only a matter of time before he finds his way into a Signature Event.