The Five: Post-PLAYERS storylines to follow

THE PLAYERS Championship is a pivotal point in the cadence of the PGA TOUR FedExCup Season. Split the season into three segments and both by calendar and by feel, THE PLAYERS serves as the conclusion of the opening third.

In a season that features 31 weeks and 36 events, THE PLAYERS is the 11th week and 12th event. It puts a bow on the TOUR’s opening 10-week run and culminates at TPC Sawgrass, one of the best courses on TOUR in the backyard of the TOUR’s headquarters.

While major championships and Signature Events define the middle third of the schedule and the final third encompasses the run into the FedExCup Playoffs, the beginning of the schedule provides the context needed to follow along for the rest of the year.

With so much of the season left to play, it’s a time to take stock of what’s happened and look to the future. This week’s Valspar Championship is the last in the Florida Swing, with a short two-week stint in Texas to follow. Then, the major championship season begins, and the schedule kicks into gear.

So as a bit of a primer of what’s to come, The Five looks at the biggest storylines to follow as the PGA TOUR season takes its next turn.

How dominant will Scottie become?

Scottie Scheffler has entered a stratosphere few golfers have found over the last 20 years, where dominance is expected and greatness is ordinary. After winning back-to-back events and back-to-back PLAYERS Championships, the conversations will occur every time Scheffler tees it up, “Scottie or the field?”

It reached its heyday with Tiger Woods, a peak nobody will reach for a very long time, if ever. As Scheffler put it, “11 more years to go” and “14 more majors and 70-some PGA TOUR events to catch up.” But in a golf landscape that is as competitive as present-day, Scheffler’s dominance is as convincing as any we’ve seen in a long time. And golf loves a dominant figure.

In recent memory, those dominant figures include Justin Thomas in 2017 (five wins), Jason Day in 2014 (five wins) and Jordan Spieth in 2015 (five wins). Scheffler amassed better statistical profiles than them with his 2022-23 season. He was just missing the wins. The dam has broken there. Scheffler has convincingly won his last two starts, the first in runaway fashion by five shots at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The next was a different type of dominance that felt inevitable despite the obstacles. Scheffler came back from a five-shot deficit in the final round, battling significant neck pain and tracking down two of the top-five players in the world to win THE PLAYERS.

Scheffler is far and away the No. 1 player in the world right now. While everyone else is trying to catch him, he’s trying to catch the all-time greats. Scheffler is laying the groundwork for one of the most impressive seasons in the sport’s modern era. How history views it will depend on how many big events he wins.

What’s next for slumping stars?

Let’s start by saying there are levels of slump, dependent on a player’s stature. What’s disappointing for one player could be great for another. The determining factor is how a player talks about their game.

Rory McIlroy has four consecutive top 25s, but none were better than T19, which came at this week’s PLAYERS. Even that was disappointing, considering he fired a 7-under 65 in the first round and held the co-lead. He played the last three rounds in just 2-under. After notching 10 consecutive finishes inside the top 11 to close out the 2022-23 season, McIlroy is still searching for his first this season.

“Just a lot of volatility in my game,” said McIlroy. “The good is good. The bad is still quite destructive. … I honestly expect a lot more from myself.”

McIlroy is playing whack-a-mole with his swing. At different points in the early season, he struggled with iron play and putting. He fixed those at TPC Sawgrass, but it came at the expense of his off-the-tee performance.

“Golf is a very fickle game. It gives you one thing and then takes away something else from you,” he said.

McIlroy and his close friend Viktor Hovland sit outside the top 50 in the FedExCup. Hovland has only two top-30 finishes in five starts and is also battling swing struggles. Arguably the hottest player in the sport last fall — when he won back-to-back Playoffs events and the FedExCup — Hovland has struggled to replicate any semblance of that success.

“I feel like I've gotten a little bit off track and I just need to start working in the right way again,” Hovland said at THE PLAYERS. “I think things are going to fall into place a little bit more, but it's not, I wish it was as simple as just kind of an overnight, one feel and then we're back on it. This is kind of a little bit of a project, but gives me something to work on and I believe that when this starts to get easier and easier to do, it's going to be right back to where we were.”

Neither player has lived up to their billing as an elite force in the game. There is still plenty of time to get back on track, but we said the same about Justin Thomas last year. The questions will only grow until one of them puts four great rounds together.

Can early-season performers keep pace?

The top of the FedExCup standings is littered with names you would expect, like Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Hideki Matsuyama and Xander Schauffele. Several new faces, though, are on pace for career-best seasons. Can they keep it up? Here’s a look at a few.

• Sahith Theegala: Currently No. 5 in the FedExCup, Theegala is on pace to make his first TOUR Championship appearance. The 26-year-old has already notched four top 10s this season, including a runner-up at The Sentry. The driver of his heightened success is his driver. Theegala ranks 26th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee this season, a marked improvement from his previous two seasons on TOUR (his best finish was 91st). He’s also putting better than at any point in his career. That’s a formidable combo for Theegala, who was already one of the best short-game players in the entire sport. If the driving success keeps up, Theegala can hold down a spot in the top 10.

• Byeong Hun An: Currently No. 7 in the standings, An’s best two weeks came in Hawaii. He finished fourth at The Sentry and lost in a playoff to Grayson Murray at the Sony Open. An added top-20s at The Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. His statistical profile looks similar to his 2019 season, which was his best on TOUR, and he’s not overperforming in one general area. That signals An’s start is sustainable.
• Erik van Rooyen: Outside the top 125 at the start of the FedExCup Fall, van Rooyen won the World Wide Technology Championship last November and has parlayed that momentum into a solid start to 2024. Van Rooyen is 23rd in the FedExCup behind a string of uncharacteristic consistency. The South African made just 53% of his cuts in his first three seasons on TOUR. He’s made seven of nine cuts thus far and has already notched as many top 25s (6) as he did all of last season. He’s improved every aspect of his game compared to last season and ranks inside the top 40 in both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Putting.

Intriguing Rookie of the Year race building

Last year’s Rookie of the Year race wasn’t much of a race. Eric Cole spent the summer distancing himself from his competitors by the sheer force of his consistency. He didn’t win, but no rookie played better week after week than Cole. It wasn’t until a late charge by Ludvig Åberg that the race even became a toss-up.

The 2024 race is on a much different trajectory. Three rookies won in the season's first two months, while several others knocked on the doorstep. The race could get even more crowded as the summer progresses, and there’s an argument that the TOUR’s new structure could produce one of the deepest rookie classes in recent memory.

The introduction of 10 DP World Tour players has already proven worthwhile with Matthieu Pavon’s victory at the Farmers Insurance Open. Sami Valimaki and Ryo Hisatsune have contended as well. At least one college phenom will join the PGA TOUR this summer. Stanford’s Michael Thorbjornsen and Georgia Tech’s Christo Lamprecht are in a tight battle for the No. 1 spot in the PGA TOUR University rankings, which will be finalized after the college season.

Then there’s Gordon Sargent, the Vanderbilt junior, who has already locked up his card through the PGA TOUR University Accelerated program. He can join the TOUR at the end of his college season but could also opt to play his senior year at Vanderbilt. Sargent hasn’t made a decision. Any of those collegiate players have the talent to do what Åberg and Dunlap have done, adding another layer of intrigue to the season’s final months.

With all that said, there are currently three frontrunners for Rookie of the Year:

• Matthieu Pavon: With his victory at the Farmers Insurance Open, Pavon became the first Frenchman to win on the PGA TOUR. He followed it up with a solo third at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and currently leads all rookies with 987 FedExCup points (No. 6 overall). He’s also No. 27 in the Official World Golf Ranking, the highest of any PGA TOUR rookie.
• Jake Knapp: He’s got Rory McIlroy’s stamp of approval, who said Knapp “could definitely be a star. It looks like he’s got the full package.” Knapp, the sweet-swinging bomber, won the Mexico Open at Vidanta and has two other top-10s, including at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches when he played with McIlroy. Knapp is 12th in the FedExCup and 46th in the OWG.
• Nick Dunlap: His consistency isn’t comparable to Pavon or Knapp. For now, Dunlap’s breakthrough victory at The American Express is the only bright star on his resume. But it’s brighter than anything the other rookies have done this season. There’s something to be said for history, especially when it’s three decades in the making. Dunlap’s victory as an amateur was a seismic victory in the golf world. It’s something none of the modern stars in the game have done – not Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas or Scottie Scheffler.

Will one of these three break ahead of the pack? Or will a surprise name insert itself into the conversation? We will find out.

Paving a path to the Signature Events

Doug Ghim is an outlier in the FedExCup. The 27-year-old American is No. 47 in the FedExCup standings. And through the first 11 events of the season, he is the only player in this season’s top 50 who has not played in a Signature Event.

Ghim’s situation is a learning lesson, illustrative of the new hierarchy on the PGA TOUR. To get into next year’s Signature Events automatically (a top-50 finish in the FedExCup), you’ll likely need to play yourself into a few this season. Or you'll need to rattle off five consecutive top-20 finishes, like Ghim, to sneak in.

It’s a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. As players rack up strong finishes in Full-Field Events, they will rise both the Aon Next 10 and Aon Swing 5 standings and likely earn their way in. That Ghim hasn’t gotten into any Signature Events of his strong play is a bit of a fluke.

So, here’s an update on the Aon Next 10 and Aon Swing 5.

The Aon Next 10 is the top 10 FedExCup points earners through the Masters Tournament. They will earn spots in the RBC Heritage.

1. Matthieu Pavon, 986.6 points
2. Ludvig Åberg, 892.7 points
3. Jake Knapp, 799.2 points
4. Will Zalatoris, 760.6 points
5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout, 627.6 points
6. Austin Eckroat, 605.9 points
7. Erik van Rooyen, 593.6 points
8. Grayson Murray, 589.4 points
9. Shane Lowry, 578.9 points
10. Justin Thomas, 575.7 points

The top five FedExCup points earners in the Puerto Rico Open, Valspar Championship, Texas Children’s Houston Open and Valero Texas Open will earn spots in the RBC Heritage via the Aon Swing 5.

It’s the longest stretch — four events — of any this season, meaning it will take sustained strong play to qualify. After a week off for THE PLAYERS, the Aon Swing 5 race picks back up with the Valspar Championship. The standings will likely feature a much different top-five at the end of the week. With more FedExCup points on the line at the Valspar Championship compared to the Puerto Rico Open, a strong finish means more this week.

1. Brice Garnett, 300 points
2. Erik Barnes, 165 points
3. Victor Perez, 83.3 points
4. Hayden Springer, 83.3 points
5. Jimmy Stanger, 83.3 points