The Five: Storylines to follow at THE PLAYERS

A historic edition of THE PLAYERS Championship is upon us.

With the PGA TOUR’s flagship event celebrating its 50th anniversary, this week will be a celebration of both the tournament’s rich history and today’s best players. TPC Sawgrass is one of the game’s most recognizable venues, providing a plethora of memorable moments over the previous five decades.

It is a course that thoroughly examines all aspects of a player’s game. The field of contenders for this year’s title is headlined by Scottie Scheffler, who arrives not only as the defending champion but also the TOUR’s most recent winner after a dominant performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. He’s seeking to be the first player to successfully defend his title at THE PLAYERS.

As the tournament approaches, here are five storylines to keep an eye on this week at TPC Sawgrass.

Is Scottie Scheffler’s putting sustainable?

It doesn’t get more dominant than Scheffler’s performance at Bay Hill last week. The No. 1 player in the world led the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and SG: Around-the-Green and was second in Greens in Regulation. Most notably, he finished fifth in SG: Putting and led the field in that metric in the final round.

Combining his record-setting ball-striking with a hot putter resulted in a dominant five-shot victory that was never in doubt. Now the question is if the mallet will lead to a long-lasting improvement that will allow Scheffler to go on another dominant run. He is the unquestioned favorite this week and will likely hold that distinction in every tournament he plays. If the improvement with his putter proves to be sustainable, he could be in line for a third consecutive PGA TOUR Player of the Year Award and more major championships.

While there is reason for optimism, it’s worth remembering that we saw a similar display just a few months ago. Scheffler won the Hero World Challenge last December and seemingly corrected his putting problems then. He debuted a new flatstick that week in the Bahamas and finished sixth in putting for the week. Scheffler also touted a refined mental mindset as the bedrock for the display. His caddie Ted Scott told PGATOUR.COM, “I don’t see (the putting) being a problem going forward.”

Instead, the putter was the only thing holding him back from an even better start to 2024. He started the year with five consecutive top-10s despite ranking 144th in SG: Putting. Scheffler was spotted on camera angrily throwing his ball into the trees at The Genesis Invitational as frustration about his putting grew.

We may look back on Scheffler’s win at Bay Hill as the turning point. In addition to his move to the mallet, he credited an improved mindset, too. It was another parallel to his win at the Hero.

Will this time be different? Despite the similarities to the Hero World Challenge, it feels different. And unlike his victory in The Bahamas, there is no offseason to wait out the answer to that question. It will come immediately at THE PLAYERS this week, where Scheffler hopes to become the first to defend in the tournament’s history. Soon after that, Scheffler will head to the Masters and the rest of the loaded golf calendar.

All eyes will be on Scheffler’s putter. That’s nothing new. He’s hoping it will finally be for all the right reasons.

If Scheffler is No. 1, who is No. 2? And is it close?

The Official World Golf Ranking says Rory McIlroy is the second-best player on the planet. According to the FedExCup, it’s Wyndham Clark. Change the metrics, emotions and accolades, and there could be more than a half-dozen players vying to be second-best on the PGA TOUR.

Scheffler has clearly established a gap between himself and the rest of the TOUR. How big is that gulf? It remains to be seen. When he’s got it going on the greens, there’s nobody better – and everyone seems to know it.

“There's probably only a couple of players in the world that can live with him playing like that,” said Shane Lowry on Sunday afternoon after playing alongside Scheffler in the final group at Bay Hill. “Not sure I'm one of them.”

Added Rory McIlroy, “(Scheffler’s) ball striking is, honestly, on another level compared to everyone else right now. We knew if he started to hole putts, then this sort of stuff would happen.”

Even go back to that win at the Hero. The sentiment was building there.

“I don’t think anyone’s surprised he figured it out, probably just a little bit scared because you don’t really want him to putt too good,” Max Homa told PGATOUR.COM. “So that will be a bummer for a while.”

But the muddled nature of the TOUR hierarchy is partially about what the other top players are, and aren’t, doing. Viktor Hovland, who won the FedExCup and dominated during the Ryder Cup, has not logged a top-15 finish in four starts. McIlroy won and finished second in a two-week tune-up on the DP World Tour to begin 2024 but hasn’t maintained that form stateside. Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Homa have yet to hit their stride.

If the season's first two months have been the PGA TOUR’s formation lap, Scheffler is way out in front, with many cars piled up off in the distance. Clark may be the front-runner as the winningest top-10 player over the past year. He’s won a major and two Signature Events in the last 12 months and was in the hunt for three days at Bay Hill before Scheffler ran away with the trophy. Will Zalatoris and Hideki Matsuyama are capturing old form after recovering from injuries. But nobody has separated from the group.

Winning THE PLAYERS, and doing it while Scheffler is in form, would clarify this discussion. But for now, it’s just Scheffler and then everybody else.

Is McIlroy's start concerning?

In the final seven months of 2023 (and first two weeks of 2024), McIlroy finished outside the top 20 just once. He hasn’t finished inside the top 20 in four starts on the PGA TOUR this season, and he hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since the Genesis Scottish Open in July.

It’s likely just a blip on the radar that will be smoothed out by season’s end. McIlroy’s 15 years of consistently elite play drown out the infrequent rough stretches. But as the TOUR calendar turns toward the meat of the schedule with THE PLAYERS and the Masters upcoming, it bears wondering whether McIlroy’s game is currently in a place to contend at the tournaments he most wants to win.

It’s not an issue off the tee. McIlroy has been one of the best drivers of the golf ball since joining the PGA TOUR and that has continued this season. He leads the TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee (+1.25) and is gaining more strokes in that category than any season of his career since 2014.

Everything else has been a struggle, though. He ranks outside the top 120 in SG: Approach, Around the Green and Putting. He believes he “found a good feeling” on Bay Hill’s greens that should set him up for success with the flatstick. The other areas? He’s still searching.

“Just the iron play's let me down," he said. "It's sort of been the same story the last few weeks, sort of struggling with a left miss with the irons and it's hard because the longer clubs, the woods, feel so good and then the irons don't really feel that good, so I feel like I'm having to put like two different swings on the woods and the irons at the minute, which is a struggle. But everything else feels pretty good, so if I can get the irons tightened up, I feel like I'll be in a good spot.”

He will face another demanding approach play test at TPC Sawgrass, which sports small, undulating greens.

“You got to hit it on the right levels, and you have to be pretty precise with your approach play as well,” McIlroy said of the Stadium Course. “Yeah, I guess for me, in my head at the minute, it's all about the approach play because that's the thing that I'm struggling with.”

History would point to McIlroy figuring it out. While putting can be fickle for even the best players, his approach play seldom is. For years, he’s been an elite ball-striker, particularly with his long irons. He ranked sixth in approach play last year, with three other top-20 statistical seasons over the last five years.

Can Min Woo Lee repeat the madness?

Lee mania may have begun at last year’s PLAYERS. The eccentric Australian captured the golf world’s attention with his flashy game and getup. Equipped with Oakley wraparound sunglasses, a willowy mustache and scraggly mullet, Lee played his way into Sunday’s final group alongside Scheffler. Lee stumbled in that final round and finished T6, but it was his formal introduction to the American golf audience.

Plenty has changed since Lee last visited the property. He’s won twice worldwide, also finished in the top 10 at the U.S. Open and earned his PGA TOUR card. He’s also enchanted a new generation of golf fans— his generation.

He arrives this week with something relatively new: expectations. Lee gushed about TPC Sawgrass in his first spin around it a year ago, with its doglegs and land movement favoring Lee’s creativity. It’s a place where he can hit his patented stinger with regularity and the tournament’s significance provides ample justification for Lee to rise to the occasion and display his endearing cockiness. He knows he can impress the crowd and he wants to.

“I like to have fun and interact with the fans when I can. Unlike others, you know, they're very serious,” Lee said at THE PLAYERS last year. “So, yeah, I'm just out here enjoying my time.”

It’s an easier feat when expectations are low. External and internal expectations have heightened for Lee, who expects to contend at every tournament, particularly here, where he’s already succeeded. He’s up to No. 32 in the world, finished runner-up at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches earlier this month and is ready for his breakthrough victory.

The debut album was a hit. Can Lee follow it with another success?

Who are the Horses?

Golf’s fickleness makes predictions almost futile. That’s especially true at THE PLAYERS, where trouble lurks at every turn and weather often plays a factor. But this is a tournament that has favored past performance, both previously at TPC Sawgrass and in the tournaments leading up to it. So recent performance is a good place to start. Here are the top-10 golfers in SG: Total over their last five starts.

It’s no surprise recent winners Scheffler, Jake Knapp and Clark are featured, but there are unheralded surprises that have performed well. Doug Ghim has four consecutive finishes inside the top 20. Tom Hoge has made nine starts this season, including top-12 finishes in the last three Signature Events. Adam Scott has only played four events but has amassed three top-20s.

THE PLAYERS hasn’t traditionally favored the first-timers. Only twice in the tournament’s 50-year history has a golfer won in his first appearance (Hal Sutton in 1983 and Craig Perks in 2002. Here are the top-10 performers in the last five years of this event.

Scheffler and Hoge are the only players on both lists, signaling another strong week could be on the horizon for both. Matsuyama’s inclusion is also notable, given his recent win at The Genesis Invitational and contention at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Past performance isn’t indicative of future success, but it provides early-week context clues as everyone tries to predict who will be holding THE PLAYERS trophy come Sunday evening.