The Five: Tiger's return, other intriguing storylines ahead of West Coast Swing

From the Aloha State to the Golden State, the PGA TOUR is on the move for the first time this season. The TOUR will spend the next four weeks soaking up the California sun before spending a week in Arizona for the WM Phoenix Open.

The West Coast Swing is traditionally when players buckle down and get ready for the meat of the PGA TOUR schedule that runs through the FedExCup Playoffs. That’s the case again this year, though it’s preceded by just two events as the TOUR shifted back to a calendar year schedule. That leaves us with more unknowns than ever as the entire PGA TOUR membership is trying to make valuable headway that will set them up nicely for the season ahead.

The settings are familiar despite the changing schedule structure. The TOUR will travel to PGA WEST, Torrey Pines Golf Course, Pebble Beach Golf Links, The Riviera Country Club and TPC Scottsdale, among the best stretch of venues on the golf calendar.

“The Five” this week looks at the most intriguing questions that will be answered over the next five weeks.

1. Will Justin Thomas rebound?

As the top players in the world were teeing it up at The Sentry, the 2024 PGA TOUR season opener, Justin Thomas was on the driving range back in Florida.

“Some quality range time the last few days so I’m not watching (The Sentry) from my couch next year,” he wrote in an Instagram post.

It was a striking reminder of the implications Thomas faces after a disappointing 2022-23 season in which he missed the FedExCup Playoffs for the first time. He has no guaranteed spots in any of the Signature Events this season, and he wasn’t in Hawaii, where he’s had a dominating presence. He won The Sentry twice (2017, 2020) and the Sony Open in Hawaii once (2017). He’s carded an additional four top-10s between the two tournaments.

Instead, he will make his 2024 PGA TOUR season debut at The American Express this week, hoping the extra practice time manifests into a fast start.

There are signs that Thomas was already turning his game around. He played three stroke-play events over the final four months of 2023 and finished fifth (Fortinet Championship), fourth (DP World Tour’s Nedbank Challenge) and third (Hero World Challenge).

That coincided with Thomas’ renewed focus on owning his own game. He felt he was becoming too reliant on those in his camp to help work through on-course issues instead of putting the onus on himself. He dropped to 35th in Strokes Gained: Approach, just the second time in nine seasons that he finished outside the top 10. His performance off-the-tee also deteriorated. He ranked 65th in driving.

With the decks cleared and a new season underway, the West Coast Swing will be Thomas’ proving grounds for a brighter 2024. And it necessitates quick success.

Thomas is currently projected to get into the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the next Signature Event, based on his top-30 world ranking (all OWGR top-30 eligible members on the Monday of tournament week earn an exemption), but that is not set in stone. He is currently No. 28 and could get bumped out by solid performances from closely ranked competitors. A top result at The American Express would alleviate those concerns. A win would guarantee he plays in every remaining Signature Event this season.

Those are the expectations that Thomas puts on himself. He went winless in 2023 for the first time in eight seasons. There’s a small sample size that indicates better golf could be coming. But until it happens, Thomas remains a big question.

2. Can a TOUR newcomer separate from the pack?

Every season, there’s at least one. One rookie/first-year member that stands out immediately upon getting to the PGA TOUR.

Last year, it was Taylor Montgomery. He carded eight top-15s in his first nine starts and held a top-20 spot in the FedExCup for the first 20 weeks of the season.

But with the season following a calendar year instead of beginning in the fall, TOUR newcomers enter with a smaller buffer than years prior. That makes the West Coast Swing crucial to setting up a successful season.

But who will it be? Matthieu Pavon was the only rookie to finish in the top 25 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, the season's first Full-Field Event. Highly anticipated rookies Adrien Dumont de Chassart and Pierceson Coody missed the cut.

That sets up an intriguing month ahead. The American Express will feature 30 of the 36 rookies/first-year members. Notably, a member of that group is Min Woo Lee, who will make his first PGA TOUR start as a member. The affable young Australian won twice internationally this fall, including the Australian PGA Championship, and has high expectations for his first full season on the PGA TOUR. He finished T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship and was in the final group on Sunday alongside Scottie Scheffler. His T5 at the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club is the only cut he made in four PGA TOUR starts in California. He has never played the WM Phoenix Open.

Despite his inexperience, Lee remains the favorite to emerge from the pack of newcomers. Can he live up to the hype? Or will an under-the-radar emerge as the biggest winner following the next month out west?

3. How will Tiger Woods look, on and off the course?

One tournament every month. That’s the cadence Tiger Woods hopes to follow with his 2024 PGA TOUR schedule. And if everything goes according to plan, that first start will be at The Genesis Invitational in February.

Woods made his first start in eight months when he teed it up at the Hero World Challenge last December and offered that insight into his schedule. It was a positive week overall despite finishing 18th in a 20-man field. Woods walked 72 holes without severe pain in his surgically repaired right ankle, a revelation far from guaranteed when he withdrew from the Masters in April due to the pain.

“I feel like my game’s not that far off, but I need to get in better shape,” Woods said after his final round in the Bahamas.

Presumably, that’s what Woods has spent the last three months doing. He has played just seven official PGA TOUR events in the previous three seasons. Is once a month truly feasible? Will that yield enough competitive reps to lead to contention in some of golf’s biggest events? Or is he bound to play rusty consistently because his body won’t fully allow him to reach peak form?

The test of walking and playing Riviera will certainly give Woods a better idea of whether he can play every month on demanding courses against top-tier fields.

Woods will also garner plenty of attention for what he will wear while playing. Woods and Nike ended a 27-year relationship earlier this month, with Woods offering a coy statement about what apparel brand he might wear next. What replaces the iconic Nike swoosh on his chest will undoubtedly be a storyline once the PGA TOUR heads to Riviera.

4. Who will play their way into the Signature Events?

With three Full-Field Events and two Signature Events on the West Coast swing, the next month of PGA TOUR golf will provide an apt encapsulation of the new schedule structure. Fifty players have already guaranteed themselves coveted spots in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational, but the remaining 20-30 spots are up for grabs based on performance in the Full-Field Events.

There are several ways golfers who are not yet exempt into the Signature Events can gain access. The most straightforward path is to win a PGA TOUR event, though it’s not the only way.

Players can get into the Signature Events through the Aon Next 10 and the Aon Swing 5. The Aon Next 10 has already been decided for the first two Signature Events. Those spots were earned by Nos. 51-60 in the 2022-23 FedExCup Fall standings. They will go to the top-10 players on the current FedExCup point list, not otherwise exempt, for the final five Signature Events.

The Aon Swing 5 is still up for grabs, though. Those five spots for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am will go to the players who have earned the most FedExCup points in the preceding three PGA TOUR events. A lot will change over the next two weeks, but here are the standings through one Full-Field Event.

Justin Thomas, Adam Scott, Shane Lowry and Billy Horschel are notable names not yet exempt into Pebble Beach.

5. How will Pebble play as a Signature Event?

The announcement that the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was being elevated to a Signature Event was widely praised by players and fans alike, more than any other change that was announced with the 2024 PGA TOUR schedule.

It might be the most anticipated tournament for that reason. Rory McIlroy has played the event once, but not since 2018. Scottie Scheffler has never played the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Max Homa has played it six times but has not appeared since 2021.

That will all change this year with the elevated stakes at Pebble Beach. It will allow fans to see the best collection of players on one of the most iconic venues in golf.

Will the same trends apply to the tournament this year? Pebble Beach has historically proven to be a “Horses for Courses” venue, with many of the same players finding success year after year. Jordan Spieth is the poster child with a win and five top-10s in his 11 appearances.

It was a mixed bag for the “Horses for Courses” trend at the 2023 Signature Events. Wyndham Clark, winner of the Wells Fargo Championship, and Viktor Hovland, winner of the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, had not played those venues well previously. Meanwhile, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Keegan Bradley all had significant success at the site of their victories.