The Five: Biggest storylines to follow at the TOUR Championship

ATLANTA – It’s on nearly every player’s list of goals.

Make it to East Lake.

It’s the culmination of a long, arduous and competitive season. Playing in the TOUR Championship means you’ve had a successful year. You made the FedExCup Playoffs, qualified for next year’s Signature Events, secured a two-year exemption on TOUR and earned your way into all four major championships next year.

What remains is a chance at the FedExCup and a record $18 million prize purse.

Here are the five biggest storylines to follow this week at the TOUR Championship.

Can Scottie Scheffler avenge last year’s final-round blunder?

Scottie Scheffler is used to getting questions about being No. 1. For 20 weeks this season, that’s where he has stood in the Official World Golf Ranking.

His typical answer when asked how that feels? “You don't get any extra strokes (for being No. 1)."

He does at East Lake – not for being No. 1 in the world, but for being No. 1 in the FedExCup. When he tees off Thursday at 2 p.m. ET, Scheffler will be 10 under for the tournament, two shots better than his playing partner and FedExCup No. 2 Viktor Hovland.

Now in the fifth year of the FedExCup Starting Strokes format, the No. 1 entering the TOUR Championship has won the FedExCup twice before – Dustin Johnson in 2020 and Patrick Cantlay in 2021.

It’s better odds than the No. 1 player had prior – from 2010 to 2018, no player entering No. 1 went on to win the FedExCup – but it’s hardly a foregone conclusion.

Scheffler knows that more than most. He entered East Lake last year as the No. 1 player and held a six-stroke lead entering Sunday before bogeying three of his first six holes.

“I remember walking down No. 8 and kind of just having a talk with myself about, you know, this is why you practice, this is why you prepare, just kind of give yourself a little pump-up speech, and then after that I snapped right back in,” said Scheffler, who played even-par over his last 12 holes.

Scheffler shot 73 to Rory McIlroy’s 66 to lose by one stroke.

Scheffler has a major championship (2022 Masters) and added THE PLAYERS Championship to his mantle earlier this season. The FedExCup still evades him. Could it come this week? If so, it could have significant implications for another award…

Player of the Year up for grabs

Nobody is ready to make a choice. A decision looms about the Player of the Year Award, and while there are several potential options, the race is mainly down to two – Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm. It will be on their peers to decide.

“I really don't know,” said Xander Schauffele.

“I certainly wouldn't want to make one of 'em mad before I have to play against them this week, so I'll refrain,” Brian Harman said.

“It depends what you value,” said McIlroy.

Interesting. Go on…

“I think Scottie's won twice this year, Jon's won four times, Jon's won the Masters, Scottie's won THE PLAYERS,” McIlroy continued. “If you go on total wins – it's hard because how can you not – it's going to be really difficult because Scottie's had – he could end up with the best ball-striking season of all time. He's hit the ball as good, if not better, than Tiger hit it in 2000. Which is the benchmark for all of us.”

OK, so he’s leaning toward Scheffler.

“But I think Jon probably has a little more to show for his year,” he added.

So, Rahm, then?

“But I think it could come down to this week and who performs,” he finished.

In answers that strayed far from the definitive, that was the one throughline all could agree on: This week at East Lake will be pivotal in the final outcome.

Scheffler will start 10 under to Rahm’s 6 under, giving the Texan the upper hand. But Rahm fancies the golf course, three times finishing in the top five. He called it “one of the favorite tournaments that we play all year.”

Here’s hoping it will produce one of the best finishes of the year, with Scheffler and Rahm dueling it out.

Rory chasing history

If there’s one golfer who could get in the way of a Scheffler and Rahm showdown, it’s likely McIlroy. He’s played spoiler before. He entered the 2016 TOUR Championship sixth in the standings before winning the event and the FedExCup. In 2019, the first year of the FedExCup Starting Strokes format, McIlroy began the week fifth, five shots back of the lead and went on to win. He started six shots behind Scheffler a year ago en route to his victory.

That makes his starting position this year, No. 3 in the FedExCup and 7 under when he tees off Thursday, his best since the new format was implemented.

Tiger and Rory are the only to win multiple FedExCups. Rory already owns the record on his own with three and a fourth would only further extend the record.

“This has been a good place to me over the years,” he said.

McIlroy will look to rekindle some of those good vibes this week. He’s been close throughout the Playoffs, finishing third at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and fourth at the BMW Championship. Hoping to get over the hump, and he made the switch back to his Taylormade Spider Hydro Blast putter ahead of this week. It’s the putter he’s used for the bulk of the last several years, but he replaced it before the first Playoffs event. After two weeks with it in the closet, McIlroy is pulling it back out. He won his last two FedExCups with the putter in the bag.

“I've had some of my best putting weeks of my career at this golf course on these greens with that putter, so hopefully I can rekindle that again,” he said.

Ryder Cup implications

Less than 48 hours after the conclusion of the TOUR Championship, the U.S. Ryder Cup roster will be finalized.

Six golfers have already automatically qualified: Scheffler, Schauffele, Wyndham Clark, Brian Harman, Patrick Cantlay and Max Homa. Captain Zach Johnson will officially select the other six on Tuesday.

That leaves East Lake as the last event for many Americans to prove they deserve to go to Rome this September.

The list of potential candidates that will play this week is long: Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Collin Morikawa, Keegan Bradley, Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Lucas Glover and Russell Henley are all potential picks.

Notably, others are not in Atlanta, including Justin Thomas and Cameron Young.

The result of one week won’t be the end-all be-all for Johnson’s decision, but leaving one last good/bad impression could swing things in a tight race. Johnson has kept his cards close to the chest about what he favors – current form over experience – and he’s enlisted his six automatic qualifiers to help with his decision.

None of them have spoken in definite ways either. Asked how he leans on the current form vs. experience, course fit or anything else, Harman said they are all important.

“The Ryder Cup, you know, coming up, it's, what, two months away almost? That's a lifetime in golf. It's a complete lifetime,” he said. “I think form is important, but I don't think it's the end-all be-all. Because I've seen guys at Walker Cups and different places that have shown up, and it looks like they have got no game and then they go out into the singles match and beat a guy 7 and 6. It's just, having the attitude to rise to the occasion is probably the most important thing.”

Who rises to the occasion at East Lake this week could make the difference.

Heat will play a factor again

The heat snuck up on the field at the FedEx St. Jude Championship two weeks ago, Brian Harman said.

There will be no surprises this week in Atlanta.

After enduring a week of temperatures in the upper 90s with heat indexes well above 100 in Memphis, Tennessee, at the Playoffs opener, players are prepping for much of the same for this week’s TOUR Championship.

Thursday’s high of 94 degrees is the coolest it's forecasted to be all week.

“So we'll be a little bit more prepared than we were in Memphis,” said Harman.

Most players played nine holes at most on Tuesday and Wednesday, with limited time on the range and practice green. Efficiency is vital this week. Do your work, then get out.

Per the PGA TOUR extended forecast, the heat index will be highest on Friday and Saturday, with anticipated peak values of 102-104 degrees, while Thursday and Sunday should see 98-100 degrees. Thunderstorms are possible on Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

If winning the TOUR Championship wasn’t hard enough, the heat will only add to the intensity of the feat.

“There's no way to hide around it,” Rahm said.