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The Five: Biggest storylines at the Wyndham Championship

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The Five: Biggest storylines at the Wyndham Championship
    Written by Paul Hodowanic @PaulHodowanic

    There is always hope.

    After 43 events and 11 months of jockeying, the PGA TOUR’s tightest FedExCup Playoffs race culminates this week at the Wyndham Championship with much still to be determined.

    The top 70 is far from locked into place and there could be a miraculous finish around the corner. Tom Kim wasn’t eligible for the Playoffs until he came to Sedgefield Country Club a year ago and fired a final-round 61 to run away with his first PGA TOUR win. Jim Herman entered this tournament in 2020 at No. 192 in the FedExCup Standings and catapulted himself to No. 54 with an improbable victory.

    Your season isn’t over until it’s over. And this week presents many with the final opportunity to extend theirs.

    “It's what I love about our sport,” said Kevin Streelman. “I think it would be depressing to be on a bad baseball team and like at the end of the season, you know you can't get to the Playoffs.”

    While 56 players know they have mathematically locked themselves in the top 70, the rest of the TOUR has work to do. The Five this week explores the biggest storylines that will be resolved in Greensboro, N.C.

    Justin Thomas’ last chance

    If Thomas fails to make the Playoffs, it won’t be for lack of trying. He is in uncharted territory, ranked 79th in the FedExCup, and he’s done nearly everything he can to find safe haven in the standings.

    When he tees it up at the Wyndham Championship on Thursday, it will be the first time he’s played four straight weeks on the PGA TOUR since June 2019. His appearance at Sedgefield Country Club is his first since 2016. At that time, his resume included just one TOUR win and zero appearances in the Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup. He’s amassed 13 TOUR wins, five national team appearances and an Olympic Games since.

    He made tournament debuts at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 3M Open, hoping to pick up valuable points and keep himself from this tenuous position. He’s even looked at equipment changes, swapping to a new counter-balanced putter last week in Minnesota with hopes of sparking something.

    It’s all to make the Playoffs and, hopefully, the Ryder Cup. Both of those goals hang in the balance this week.

    “I know I'm really, really close to playing some really, really good golf,” said Thomas, who has missed five of his last seven cuts. “The reality is, you know, I need to play well this week to give that an opportunity to come out. That's the unfortunate but also realistic part of where I'm at right now.”


    Justin Thomas on outside of FedExCup Playoffs bubble entering Wyndham


    The 30-year-old stressed it’s just a few shots here or there that are keeping those missed cuts from becoming fruitful weekends. At the 3M Open, it was a pair of shots that found the water on the fourth and 18th holes of the second round that led to double bogeys. He made nine birdies over two days, but those big numbers left him two shots off the cut.

    The margins of great and sub-par golf are thin, but Thomas’ summer performance has left him little wiggle room. He needs a minimum finish of 18th to sneak into the top 70, but, based on historical trends, will likely need to finish in a three-way tie for fourth to secure his spot in next week’s Playoffs. He is 48 FedExCup points behind No. 70 Austin Eckroat.

    All it takes is one good week – Thomas has preached that fact throughout his struggles. He is confident it can be this week.

    “I've been in a lot better head space of just feeling like really good things are coming, but not as much expecting or saying, you know, when's this going to be over,” he said. “... That's where I'm at, so we'll see.”

    The other big names on the bubble

    Thomas isn’t the only FedExCup Playoffs mainstay in danger of missing out. With the field reduced to 70, several stalwarts of Playoffs past are at risk.

    Shane Lowry (currently 76th) – Lowry needs, at minimum, a two-way tie for 23rd, though a two-way tie for fifth is likely what will help the Irishman clinch his spot. Lowry has a 14% chance of making it through.

    Adam Scott (81st) – Hovering around a 5% chance of making it to Memphis, Scott likely needs a two-way tie for third to advance, though a top-9 finish might be enough. Scott and Matt Kuchar are the only two golfers to make the FedExCup Playoffs every season since its inception in 2007. Kuchar is 59th in the FedExCup standings.

    Joel Dahmen (82nd) – Inside the top 25 earlier this season, Dahmen has limped to the finish line, missing six of his last seven cuts. Like Scott, a top-9 finish is the bare minimum to have a chance at the Playoffs, though he’s likely to need at least a three-way tie for third.

    Akshay Bhatia (99th) – A winner in his last start at the Barracuda Championship, Bhatia will need to threaten another victory if he wants to play in the Playoffs. His minimum finish required is a two-way tie for third.

    Billy Horschel (116th) – It’s basically win or go home for Horschel, who has made the Playoffs 10 straight seasons. The 2014 FedExCup champion has a good track record at Sedgefield Country Club, with three top 15s in the last five years.

    How much movement will there be?

    The scenarios are plentiful. Forty-one players currently outside the top 70 are likely to qualify for the Playoffs if they can muster a solo second finish. Another 66 will likely qualify if they win.

    For Justin Suh, it’s a three-way tie for fourth that will likely get him into next week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. For Ben Taylor, it's solo 11th place. Vincent Norrman needs a two-way tie for 29th. Cam Davis is eyeing anything better than a two-way tie for 14th. From No. 57 down to No. 188, the Wyndham Championship gives every golfer something to aim for.

    The reality, though, is only two or three will likely change their fortunes. Gary Woodland needs a two-way tie for second. So do 11 others. There are simply not enough spots in the top 70 up for grabs for widespread upheaval in the standings.

    According to Justin Ray of Twenty First Group, 68 players have a 94% probability or higher of qualifying for the FedExCup Playoffs. That leaves two spots realistically up in the air – and No. 69 Cam Davis has a 71.4% chance of holding his spot.

    It’s consistent with the history of the Wyndham Championship. Although a different threshold of the top 125, none of the last five years at Sedgefield Country Club have yielded more than three changes for the Playoffs.

    In 2022, Max McGreevy and Tom Kim played their way in and forced out Matt Wallace and Austin Smotherman. In 2021, Chesson Hadley, Roger Sloan and Scott Piercy punched their ticket. Jim Herman, Zach Johnson and Shane Lowry booked their trip in 2020 with solid performances that vaulted them up the standings.

    With the Playoffs reduced to the top 70 this year, the battle for positioning at the Wyndham Championship is tighter than ever, but that still may not yield drastic changes. Last week’s 3M Open saw two players move into the top 70 – Cam Davis and Lee Hodges.

    That doesn’t make it any less enticing. Or any more maddening to predict who will rise from the pack to claim their spot.

    Is a longshot lingering?

    The most likely scenarios at the Wyndham Championship involve movement right around the top 70 bubble. At a minimum, No. 71 Ben Taylor needs a top 75 finish, while No. 72 Garrick Higgo might be able to sneak in with a top 70 at the Wyndham Championship, depending on how the rest of the leaderboard shakes out. Those outcomes are much more likely than someone outside the top 100 leapfrogging several dozen players to make the Playoffs. But it’s certainly possible.

    Winning solves many issues – we’ve seen it at this tournament before.

    Herman won the 2020 Wyndham Championship without warning that it was on the horizon. He had missed 11 of 18 cuts with only one top-30 finish. But in one week, he went from thinking about the Korn Ferry Tour to locking up his card for two more years.

    It’s a story many will hope to replicate this year. Herman showed it could be anyone, current form be damned. However, that’s entirely too hard to predict. So, here’s a look at some potential longshots that could threaten at the Wyndham Championship.

    Lucas Glover – Currently 112th, the four-time TOUR winner has put together a late-season charge. He missed the cut at the 3M Open but had notched three consecutive top-6 finishes leading up to it.

    Webb Simpson – His form is spotty entering the week, but Simpson has not finished worse than T7 at this tournament since 2018. He is twice a runner-up and has led the field in Strokes Gained: Total at this event over the last five years.

    Taylor Pendrith – It’s been boom or bust for the Canadian. He’s made the cut twice in his last five starts, but both have yielded top-15 placings. Of those in the field, he ranks seventh in SG: Total over the last five starts.

    Doc Redman – One better than Pendrith in the SG: Total rankings, Redman scored his first top 10 at the Barbasol three weeks ago and put together a solid final-round 65 at the 3M Open to finish inside the top 30.

    Watching the incentives

    While the FedExCup Playoffs bubble will take center stage this weekend, several significant incentives are still up for grabs for the golfers who have already clinched a spot in next week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship.

    Six players in the Wyndham Championship field can crack the Comcast Business TOUR TOP 10 with a victory: Si Woo Kim (currently 18th), Sam Burns (19th), Adam Schenk (23rd), Denny McCarthy (25th), Chris Kirk (26th) and Taylor Moore (27th). Current No. 10 in the standings, Tony Finau is more than 300 FedExCup points ahead of all six players, meaning anything short of a win will keep them outside the top 10.

    Kim and Burns would move to No. 9 with a win, though, while Schenk, McCarthy, Kirk and Moore can only get to No. 10. Rickie Fowler, currently ninth, would drop to 10th if Kim or Burns win.

    The No. 10 finisher earns a $1 million bonus; No. 9 receives $1.25 million. The payouts will be finalized after this week’s Wyndham Championship.

    Meanwhile, the AON Risk Reward Challenge also hangs in the balance, and it’s down to three possible winners for the $1 million prize: Adam Scott, Stephan Jaeger or Tyrrell Hatton.

    This week’s AON Risk Reward Challenge hole is the 545-yard par-5 15th at Sedgefield Country Club.

    Here are the scenarios:

    • If Scott records a combined score of 4 under across his final two scores (two best rounds out of a possible four are scored), he will win.

    • If Scott isn’t successful and Jaeger records a combined 3 under across any two rounds on No. 15, he will win.

    • If neither Scott (4 under) nor Jaeger (3 under) are successful, then Hatton, who isn’t playing this week, will win.