The Five: Big names on the FedExCup Playoffs bubble

If the FedExCup Playoffs began this week, more than a dozen major champions would find themselves on the outside looking in. While annual turnover is inherent to the PGA TOUR, a reduction in the number of Playoffs spots means even the game’s biggest names are not guaranteed postseason berths.

Only the top 70 in the FedExCup after the Wyndham Championship will advance to the Playoffs, a reduction from the 125 players who’ve qualified in years past. The top 50 after the FedEx St. Jude Championship will advance to the BMW Championship and 30 men will qualify for the season-ending TOUR Championship.

JUSTIN THOMAS

FedExCup ranking: 66th

Thomas’ torment is one of expectation. Ranking 66th in the FedExCup is hardly a position to scoff at, unless of course you’ve spent months atop the Official World Golf Ranking, won every year on TOUR since 2016 and only failed to miss out on the TOUR Championship once in your career. He’s never finished lower than 32nd in the FedExCup, and that was in his rookie season of 2015.

Thomas is rightfully judged by lofty standards. Most would be happy with his performance this season – 12 of 15 made cuts, nine top 25s and three top 10s – but not Thomas. He has thrived on golf’s biggest stages throughout his career but has struggled in those moments this year. Of his three missed cuts, two have come at major championships, the only time in his career he’s missed in multiple majors in the same season. His other MC came at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday.

“It’s definitely the lowest I’ve felt,” Thomas said after a second-round 81 shot him out of the U.S. Open. “It’s pretty humiliating and embarrassing shooting scores like that.”

Fighting for a Playoffs spot has never been a concern for the 15-time TOUR winner. There are signs of light as the Regular Season enters its home stretch, however. Eight days after shooting 81 to miss the cut at the U.S. Open, Thomas fired a third-round 62 at the Travelers Championship. The T9 finish at TPC River Highlands lifted him 12 spots in the FedExCup standings, his biggest jump since February.

He is playing this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic for the first time in his career, too, meaning another strong performance could give him the much-needed breathing room he craves. If he gets it, Thomas could carve out one of his most impressive seasons to date. One of resolve and perseverance, digging himself out of a hole that looked mighty deep just weeks ago.

Considering his record in the FedExCup Playoffs – particularly at the FedExCup St. Jude Championship, where he has six top 15s in eight appearances – any version of JT is a dangerous JT come the end of the year. Thomas also is a past champion at TPC Southwind, the venue for the Playoffs opener, having won the 2020 World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.

SHANE LOWRY

FedExCup ranking: 74th

Measuring by consistency alone, Lowry’s season has looked like many of his others. He’s made 13 of 15 cuts and cracked the top 25 eight times (including in all three majors). That’s right on the pace of his last two seasons, which have been amongst his best on TOUR.

The issue has only been with Lowry’s high-end performances, or lack thereof. After eight top 10s over the previous two seasons, Lowry’s amassed only one this season, a T5 at The Honda Classic in February. Last week’s T19 at the Travelers Championship was only the second time in three months that he’s carded at least two rounds in the 60s in the same event.

That’s resulted in a slower, but still positive, rise up the FedExCup standings after starting his season on the DP World Tour. His second start of the season didn’t come until the WM Phoenix Open, where he missed the cut and fell to 180th in the standings. It’s been a chase ever since for the Irishman, who at No. 74 is in his best spot all season.

With the PGA TOUR headed over to the United Kingdom later this month, that may be the perfect time for the 2019 Open Champion to solidify a Playoffs spot.

ADAM SCOTT

FedExCup ranking: 76th

Like Lowry, Scott’s standing is influenced by a low number of starts. Other than Rory McIlroy, who’s played 13 times, nobody inside the top 100 has fewer starts than Scott (14) this season. Combine that with some disappointing results earlier this year at events he has won (65th at The Genesis Invitational, 71st at THE PLAYERS Championship and T39 at the Masters) and it left the Australian fighting to get back into the Playoffs conversation.

“It's been hard not to be frustrated because there isn't one thing that I can really put my finger on why I'm not getting better results,” Scott said during the Wells Fargo Championship. “I play OK every week and OK kind of sucks on the PGA TOUR, so I'm nowhere with anything.”

That didn’t turn out to be entirely true. Later that week he registered his best result of the season, a T5 at Quail Hollow Club and he has carded two more top 10s since. He ranks inside the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Total over the last three months and has missed one cut. He shot a season-best 62 in the first round of the Travelers Championship and now holds his best FedExCup rank of the season. His mid-season resurrection has brought him back into Playoffs contention and only 20 points behind No. 70 Matt Wallace.

BILLY HORSCHEL

FedExCup ranking: 109th

Horschel famously finished 2014 in a flurry, closing the season T2-Win-Win to claim the FedExCup. Four years later, he finished T3 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, T3 at the BMW Championship and solo second at the TOUR Championship.

But the orchestrator of two of the best Playoffs runs in FedExCup history is on the brink of missing the postseason entirely. He’s missed more cuts this season (8) than he has the two prior seasons combined (6), including four missed cuts in his last eight starts.

The struggles stem from a failed swing change this offseason. Hoping to improve on his 20th-place finish in last year’s FedExCup, Horschel made slight tweaks to his mechanics. While they worked in practice, he couldn’t get them to show up consistently once competition started. Understanding it was doing more harm than good, Horschel and his team reverted to old swing feels – the ones that led to seven TOUR wins. He can see the progress, but the margins in professional golf are small. The 36-year-old said he’s struggling to get the ball starting left for his go-to cut shot, which penalized him a great deal at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. After shooting an opening-round 84, an emotional Horschel said his confidence “is the lowest it’s been in (his) entire golf career.”

“So it's funny, as low as it feels, it feels like I'm not that far off at the same time,” he added. “Which is insane to see when you see me shoot 84 today. It doesn't, it wouldn't make sense to a lot of people. But I don't think I'm that far off.”

Horschel made the cut two weeks later at the U.S. Open, highlighted by a second-round 67 in tough conditions. He missed the cut last week at the Travelers Championship. Horschel is 221 points behind 70th place and will need more than mixed results to avoid his first missed Playoffs since 2012.

KEVIN KISNER

FedExCup ranking: 192nd

It’s been an anomalous season for the 39-year-old who was a member of last year’s U.S. Presidents Cup Team. Kisner isn’t at risk of losing his TOUR card -- he’s exempt through next season – but he’s in serious jeopardy of missing the Playoffs for the first time since 2014. In 15 events, Kisner has missed more cuts than he’s made and has yet to finish inside the top 25. His last made cut came at THE PLAYERS Championship (he finished 75th).

It’s unclear if Kisner is dealing with any ailments. He’s withdrawn twice this year, including last week at the Travelers Championship due to illness.

THE NEXT FIVE

Joel Dahmen (80th) – Inside the top 70 for the entire season, Dahmen has missed his last three cuts to fall outside the top 70 and will need a turn of fortune to make his seventh Playoffs appearance.

Gary Woodland (92nd) – Hovering around 100th all season, Woodland has had encouraging finishes in top tournaments (T9 at The Genesis Invitational, T14 at the Masters, T14 at Wells Fargo) but has struggled elsewhere.

Harry Higgs (122nd) – A T12 at the RBC Canadian Open is his best finish in three months and could spark a late-season charge for the 31-year-old.

Cameron Champ (140th) – He’s missed the most cuts in his career (14) and is on the brink of missing the Playoffs for a second year in a row

Webb Simpson (157th) – Consistently one of the best putters on TOUR after finding the arm-lock method, Simpson ranks 129th in SG: Putting. That has left the 37-year-old on the outside looking in.