PALM HARBOR, Fla. – Justin Thomas believes he can win the Valspar Championship. He just needed to reach the weekend first.

Thomas posted a two-round total of 1-over 143 at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course, a solid comeback from an opening-nine 40 in Thursday’s first round that included four consecutive bogeys on Nos. 6-9. Thomas righted the ship from there, making just one bogey across the next 27 holes, and he drained a crucial 16-foot birdie on the par-4 seventh Friday, his 16th hole of the day, to move inside the projected cut line at the time. It reminded of THE PLAYERS Championship last week, where Thomas rebounded from an opening-round 78 with a course record-tying 62 in Friday’s second round.

The top 65 and ties advanced to the final two rounds at the Valspar, and the cut line hovered between 1-over (61% chance) and 2-over (39% chance) late Friday afternoon. It finalized at 2-over in the waning moments Friday, as Neal Shipley made a bogey on his final hole that moved 2-over into a tie for 65th. The beneficiaries included Michael Kim, Adam Scott, Camilo Villegas, Brandt Snedeker and PGA TOUR rookie Steven Fisk, who made an ace Friday and played alongside Shipley for the opening two rounds.

The probability of the cut line backpedaling to even-par was virtually zero, per PGA TOUR probability models. But as Thomas finished his second round early Friday afternoon, there was a reasonable chance that the cut line would move back to even-par; the wind looked to be dying down, a development of which Thomas was keenly aware. It meant a nervous afternoon of monitoring the projections and probabilities.

“It's like a drug,” Thomas said of monitoring the cut line. “You just keep getting more and more of it and it's not good for you at all and you get pissed off and you're mad at bounces and putts lipping in and the wind dying down. But it is what it is, I can't control it, I should have just played better and wouldn't be here.

“It’s … more often more nerve-wracking than trying to win a golf tournament, just because – especially a week like this, like I'm literally nine holes from leading the golf tournament right now, and I might not even get to play this weekend. So it sucks, because I'm really – I really played well today and a lot of things are going well, but, you know, I just have to hope and hope somehow the wind keeps blowing.”

Thomas hasn’t missed a cut since last year’s U.S. Open, and he knew the Valspar leaderboard was bunched to the point where two low rounds could move him into serious contention come Sunday afternoon. As recently as last month, Joe Highsmith made the cut on the number at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches and went on to win the tournament. It’s doable.

That heightened Thomas’ interest in the cut projections Friday afternoon – if he reached the weekend outside Tampa, the final two rounds would be far from ceremonial. The numbers worked in his favor, and he's around for the weekend in west Florida.

Thomas played alongside Jordan Spieth for the Valspar’s first two rounds; Spieth rallied from an opening-round 74 with a second-round 69, joining Thomas inside the cut line at 1-over 143. The duo will play together once again in Saturday's third round.

Notables to miss the cut included Sam Burns (3-over), defending Valspar champion Peter Malnati (4-over), newly minted 17-year-old pro Blades Brown (7-over), Jake Knapp (9-over) and Cameron Young (9-over). Young finished solo second at last year’s Valspar Championship.