Scottie Scheffler is one day away from perfect ending to historic season

ATLANTA – Scottie Scheffler is 18 holes away from finishing his dominant season on a fitting note and winning one of the few titles that has evaded him over the past three years.

Scheffler will take a five-shot lead into Sunday’s final round of the TOUR Championship. The player atop the leaderboard at day’s end will be crowned the FedExCup champion.

Scheffler has won the last two PGA TOUR Player of the Year Awards, the first player since Tiger Woods to win that honor in consecutive years, but he has not been able to win the FedExCup. This also is the third straight season that he’s arrived at East Lake as the No. 1 seed in the season-long standings.

The third time may prove to be a charm. The FedExCup leader begins the TOUR Championship with a two-stroke lead over the field, but Scheffler has not been able to parlay that advantage into victory. He lost a six-shot lead to Rory McIlroy in the final round of the 2022 TOUR Championship, then finished in the middle of the pack last year.

The TOUR Championship’s FedExCup Starting Strokes format gives one player the lead from the moment he steps on the property. It is a unique situation, one that Scheffler has tried to downplay by ignoring the leaderboard at the start of the week. Sunday also will mark the fourth consecutive day that he plays in the day’s final group.

He’ll tee off at 1:05 p.m. ET on Sunday and play with Collin Morikawa, his teammate on the 2017 Walker Cup team, for the third consecutive day. They’ve been the best two players this week, with only Scheffler’s Starting Strokes advantage separating them.

Scheffler started the week at 10-under par, and his 16-under 197 total (65-66-66) is the second-lowest this week. Morikawa has been one shot better (66-63-67), but he started the week six shots back.

When asked what he needs to do to finish the job, Scheffler said, “Keep doing what I've been doing, staying in the moment, staying patient out there.

“I've bogeyed the first two holes of the last three days and both times when I bogeyed the first hole I didn't make any bogeys after that, so that's kind of good momentum for me,” he added. “I feel like I've done a lot of stuff well and played solid, so I'm looking forward to the challenge of trying to finish off the tournament tomorrow and continuing to do that.”

Scheffler leads the field in greens hit (41 of 54), is second in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (+2.6) and second in Strokes Gained: Putting (+4.1). It would be fitting if the putter proves to be the difference-maker in his FedExCup quest.

His switch to the mallet putter set the stage for his dominant year. After struggling with his putting for much of the previous year, he debuted the club at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. He went on to win five more times on the PGA TOUR, as well as the Olympic gold medal.

Morikawa is the only player within eight of Scheffler, who has a 92.3% chance of winning, according to the PGA TOUR’s predictive model. Though the restored East Lake is very different than the version that existed 12 months ago, the objective remains the same. There are plenty of birdie opportunities for players who find the fairway, but they often have to scramble for par from the rough.

That’s why it’s no surprise that Morikawa, who has hit the most fairways this week (35 of 42), also has the lowest score. He also leads the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (+3.3) and is second in Strokes Gained: Approach (+3.5).

“Five shots is a lot, but two-shot swings happen,” Morikawa said. “I think I've seen a couple over the past few days.”

“I've just got to play my game. I've got to go low. I know that. Hopefully I've got that in me today. I've got 18 holes left to the season. I keep talking about that, but I'm going to put everything I have into these next 24 hours.”

Scheffler and Morikawa had one of these swings just as Morikawa was threatening Scheffler’s position atop the leaderboard, but it was in Scheffler’s favor. Scheffler, who was seven shots ahead after the first round, led by four to start Saturday.

His lead dwindled to three after he bogeyed Saturday’s opening hole, and he was only two ahead after he failed to birdie the par-5 sixth hole. Scheffler made his first birdie of the day at the next hole, however, as Morikawa was making his first bogey.

The two-shot swing put Scheffler four ahead once again. Both players birdied the next hole, as well. They both parred the next five holes before Scheffler birdied the par-5 14th to gain an unexpected shot on Morikawa. Scheffler holed a 20-foot birdie putt after laying up, while Morikawa three-putted from 60 feet for par.

Morikawa birdied the next hole, the island 15th, to regain the stroke he lost, but Scheffler responded by making birdie on the final three holes. That included the 17th, where he had to hit his approach shot from the wood chips surrounding a tree. Morikawa parred 16 before making birdie on the final two holes.

“Today we both had really solid days out there,” Scheffler said. “We were both playing some good golf.”

It will take more than good golf to unseat Scheffler at East Lake, however.