FedExCup live blog: Track the top-30 race for TOUR Championship spots

Thirty TOUR Championship berths were finalized Sunday at the BMW Championship, and sky-high Castle Pines Golf Club delivered tension and theatrics as the top-30 bubble was finalized down the stretch of the TOUR's second of three FedExCup Playoffs events.

BMW Championship winner Keegan Bradley, the last man in the field, moved from No. 50 to No. 4 on the FedExCup and comfortably advanced to East Lake. The 30th spot went to Justin Thomas, who completed his final round hours before the final pairings and sweated out a yo-yo afternoon where he often oscillated between the Nos. 30 and 31 positions. The gut-wrenching 31st spot went to Brian Harman, who made double bogey on the 72nd hole when a par would have secured his TOUR Championship appearance.

All 30 TOUR Championship qualifiers also earn a TOUR exemption through 2026, at minimum, and will likely qualify for all four major championships in 2025. The stakes are high around the top-30 bubble, and Harman wasn't alone in disappointment on the bubble's wrong side; Alex Noren arrived on the 16th tee inside the number but finished bogey-bogey-bogey to close at No. 37.

Four players moved inside the top 30 at the BMW: Bradley, runner-up Adam Scott, Tommy Fleetwood (T5), and Chris Kirk (T9).

The four players to fall outside the top 30 at the BMW: Brian Harman, Jason Day, Davis Thompson, and Denny McCarthy.

The thirty TOUR Championship qualifiers also remain in contention for the FedExCup title via the Starting Strokes format. All 30 players in the TOUR Championship field will start the week at East Lake within 10 shots of the lead, with FedExCup No. 1 Scottie Scheffler starting at 10-under and No. 2 Xander Schauffele starting at 8-under.

Click here for FedExCup standings.

Here's a capsule look at critical moments around the bubble as Sunday's drama unfolded, high above sea level at Castle Pines.

5:55 p.m. ET: Keegan Bradley wins the BMW Championship, moving from No. 50 to No. 4 on the FedExCup and punching his ticket to East Lake in style. His playing partner Adam Scott finishes in a three-way T2, moving from 41st to 14th on the FedExCup and also earning a spot at the TOUR Championship.

5:52 p.m. ET: As the dust settles on the top-30 bubble, it appears Brian Harman (projected No. 31) will be the odd man out. Earlier this afternoon, Harman made double bogey on the 72nd hole to fall to 3-under total; had he made par, he would have finished No. 28 (Justin Thomas would have been the odd man out).

A year after narrowly missing the FedExCup Playoffs on the wrong side of the top-70 bubble at the Wyndham Championship, Thomas will find the right side of the line for a trip to East Lake.

5:45 p.m. ET: Alex Noren's FedExCup Playoffs campaign will end in frustrating fashion, as he follows bogeys at Nos. 16 and 17 with another bogey at No. 18; he will not finish inside the top 30. Noren (currently projected No. 37) held a spot inside the projected top 30 when he arrived at the 16th tee; that spot will now go to Justin Thomas, whose position inside the top 30 was in flux all afternoon.

Si Woo Kim made a spirited effort with two birdies in his last three holes to finish in a four-way T5 at 8-under; Kim is projected No. 32 and will fall one stroke outside the top 30.

5:30 p.m. ET: It's a costly bogey at the par-5 17th for Alex Noren, who can't convert a 25-footer for par after laying up on his second shot and finding a greenside bunker for his third. Noren falls into a five-way T5 at 8-under and is now projected No. 34 in the FedExCup standings. His best path to the top 30 (appearing that he needs a two-way T4 to pass Justin Thomas inside the top 30) would involve a birdie at 18 coupled with an Adam Scott bogey on one of the last two holes.

The final five spots in the top 30 are currently projected to Tom Hoge, Chris Kirk, Aaron Rai, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Justin Thomas, respectively.

Brian Harman, who made double bogey at the 72nd hole, is currently projected No. 31 (29 points behind Thomas), with Jason Day projected No. 32.

5:19 p.m. ET: Although Keegan Bradley (leader by one) and Adam Scott (who made bogey on 15, falling back into T3) could each fall outside the top 30 with a late collapse, it's shaping up to be a two-man race for the final spot: Alex Noren and Justin Thomas.

Thomas, who finished more than three hours ago, currently holds the No. 30 spot, five points ahead of Noren. It's a minimal cushion, as the par-5 17th is playing as Sunday's easiest hole, and Noren would project to surpass Thomas if he plays his last two holes in 1 under.

5:13 p.m. ET: Alex Noren finds trouble off the tee at the par-3 16th en route to a bogey, and the Swede falls to projected No. 31 on the FedExCup.

This moves Justin Thomas (who finished hours ago) back to projected No. 30 on the FedExCup. Thomas now has a 60% probability of finishing inside the top 30, per Data Golf.

With one birdie in his last two holes, Noren would jump past Thomas inside the top 30.

5:03 p.m. ET: After sharing the lead earlier Sunday, Adam Scott has moved back toward the bubble with three consecutive bogeys to begin the back nine. He has rebounded with a par-birdie stretch on Nos. 13 and 14, moving into a tie for second at 11-under, two back of leader Keegan Bradley.

Scott is now projected No. 11 on the FedExCup and has two shots of cushion on the top 30 with four holes to play. He's in a good spot but nothing is for sure.

Bradley, who began the week at No. 50 on the FedExCup, leads by two and is projected to No. 4 with a win.

4:55 p.m. ET: Needing a bogey to stay inside the projected top 30, Tom Hoge makes bogey at 18 to post 5-under 283, currently T14. He's projected 28th on the FedExCup and should be good for a trip to the TOUR Championship.

4:40 p.m. ET: It might go under the radar in the overall narrative, but North Dakota's Tom Hoge comes through with a big-time birdie at the par-5 17th, striping a 225-yard second shot onto the green and two-putting from 61 feet. Hoge moves from projected 27th to 24th in the FedExCup, and he would still project inside the top 30 with a bogey on the final hole. That's a huge development considering the difficulty of the beastly par-4 18th, ranked as Sunday's third most difficult hole.

4:34 p.m. ET: Here's a look at players around the current top-30 bubble and where they stand, as the final few holes approach at Castle Pines:

• Projected No. 27: Tom Hoge (T14, 5-under), playing No. 17
• Projected No. 28: Aaron Rai (T43, 4-over), final
• Projected No. 29: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (T33, 1-over), final
• Projected No. 30: Justin Thomas (T39, 2-over), final
• Projected No. 31: Alex Noren (solo fifth, 9-under), playing No. 14
• Projected No. 32: Brian Harman (T24, 3-under), final

4:24 p.m. ET: There's no quit in Alex Noren, who makes a 15-foot par from the fringe at No. 13 to stay at 9-under. In a testament to the fine line of the bubble, though, he moves from projected 26th to 31st on the FedExCup due to playing partner Ludvig Åberg's birdie at No. 13 (Åberg moves into a two-way T3 at 10-under, bumping Noren into solo fifth place).

4:17 p.m. ET: Sweden's Alex Noren is showing some fight, as he has started the back nine par-birdie-par to move into a tie for fourth on the leaderboard; he's now projected No. 26 on the FedExCup.

Meanwhile, the 18th hole is a heartbreak hotel for Brian Harman, who makes double bogey to fall from projected 29th to 32nd. Harman, who began the week at 29th on the FedExCup, is now projected 32nd (he stands T24 for the week). He will now need ample help in order to qualify for East Lake.

It has been a whirlwind of a final few holes for Chris Kirk (birdie-birdie on 14 and 15, double bogey on 16, birdie on 17), and it's looking to end well as he stripes a drive on No. 18 and flips a wedge to inside 15 feet. Kirk is projected 27th on the FedExCup, and a par should cement his spot at East Lake.

4:10 p.m. ET: The Justin Thomas yo-yo experience continues, as Chris Kirk makes birdie on No. 17 to move from projected No. 31 to No. 27 (from T11 to T9 on the leaderboard). Brian Harman also makes birdie on No. 17 to earn some cushion; he moves from projected 30th to 29th.

This moves Thomas from projected 29th to 31st, as the numbers continue to move fast and furious around here.

4:00 p.m. ET: The final pairing has reached the 11th hole, with Keegan Bradley (13-under) leading by one over Adam Scott.

Bradley was the last man in the BMW field, and he's projected to move from No. 50 to No. 4 with a win. Scott entered the week at No. 41 on the FedExCup and is projected No. 10 with a solo second.

3:52 p.m. ET: It doesn't get much closer than this, as Brian Harman (projected No. 30) and Chris Kirk (projected No. 31) each have two holes remaining in the battle for East Lake.

Harman, who entered the week at No. 29 on the FedExCup, currently stands T20 for the tournament at 4-under. Kirk entered the week at No. 32 and is currently T11 for the tournament at 6-under.

3:45 p.m. ET: Chris Kirk projects 25th on the FedExCup after back-to-back birdies on Nos. 14 and 15, but he finds trouble with a water ball on the par-3 16th. He would project to No. 31 with a double bogey, which would bump back in his fellow Georgia Bulldog, Brian Harman, who currently projects No. 31 with two holes to play.

Justin Thomas currently holds down the projected 30th spot, seven points ahead of Harman.

3:35 p.m. ET: The game within the game, regarding the top-30 bubble, involves players not necessarily around the bubble who serve as "point stealers" for those near the bubble. Case in point: Byeong Hun An, who makes birdie at No. 15 to join Brian Harman in a tie for 19th (now a four-way T19), which takes four points away from Harman -- bumping Harman to projected No. 31 on the FedExCup. The beneficiary is Justin Thomas, who is now projected as No. 30. It's a high-wire battle for the final spots at East Lake.

3:27 p.m. ET: Cam Davis finishes with a bogey on 18 for a 6-under 66; it's a noble charge for an 8-under 280 total (currently T6), but it will leave him short of the TOUR Championship. Davis, who won his second Rocket Mortgage Classic earlier this year, entered the week at 49th on the FedExCup and is now projected 37th.

Justin Thomas and Jason Day, both in the clubhouse, are projected Nos. 31 and 32 on the FedExCup respectively. Thomas entered the week at 22nd on the FedExCup and currently stands at T39 for the tournament; Day began the week at No. 25 on the FedExCup and stands at T33 for the tournament.

Brian Harman (T19 for the week, three holes to play) currently holds the pivotal No. 30 spot. He would project to No. 28 with a birdie; he would project to No. 31 with a bogey. It's a high-stakes closing stretch for the gritty Georgia Bulldog, who is currently projected a single point ahead of Justin Thomas for the final spot at East Lake.

3:22 p.m. ET: Cam Davis doesn't chip in for birdie at the par-4 18th hole, his 85-foot birdie pitch finishing 15 feet short, and it looks like his electric final-round charge will come up just a bit shy. Davis began the day in 27th place on the leaderboard but has rocketed into a tie for fourth by playing his first 17 holes in 7-under.

3:17 p.m. ET: Cam Davis isn't going away, as he makes birdie at No. 17 to move to T4 for the week; he's now projected No. 32 on the FedExCup. With a birdie at 18, Davis would project to No. 27 on the FedExCup.

Meanwhile, Brian Harman makes a 9-foot birdie at the par-5 14th, his third birdie in four holes, to move to projected No. 30. Suddenly Justin Thomas is on the wrong side of the bubble, projected No. 31.

3:10 p.m. ET: We have moved into the final few hours of the BMW Championship and the race for top-30 spots at the TOUR Championship. Two players in near-certain shape to advance are Aaron Rai (projected No. 27) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout (projected No. 28), both in the clubhouse and outside the top 30 for the week but with greater than 99% probability of finishing inside the top 30 (per Data Golf).

Justin Thomas (in the house) is hanging onto the No. 30 spot but not by much; Brian Harman (currently projected No. 31) would project to pass Thomas with one more birdie. Harman has five holes remaining.

3:00 p.m. ET: It's a big-time birdie at the par-4 10th, Castle Pines' most difficult hole, for bubble character Tom Hoge. The North Dakota native is now projected No. 26 on the FedExCup, trying to cement a trip to East Lake. Hoge entered the week at No. 28 on the FedExCup and is currently T13 for the week.

2:50 p.m. ET: Sweden's Alex Noren, who entered Sunday in a tie for third, has played his first seven holes in 2 over and is now projected No. 32 on the FedExCup (he began the day projected No. 21). Noren is now T5 for the week at 8-under.

Noren's fall has pushed Chris Kirk into the projected No. 30 spot; Kirk is T11 for the week (6-under) with six holes to play. Kirk, who is also battling for a Presidents Cup spot, began the week at No. 32 on the FedExCup.

Justin Thomas (in the house) is projected No. 29, with Brian Harman (five holes remaining) projected No. 31.

2:45 p.m. ET: After narrowly advancing to the BMW Championship at No. 49 on the FedExCup, Cam Davis is hanging around with an outside chance to qualify for East Lake. Davis goes birdie-birdie at Nos. 14 and 15 to move into T5 for the week at 8-under; he's now projected No. 35 on the FedExCup. He needs continued heroics for a chance, but magic is sometimes in the air at Castle Pines (think Steve Lowery at The International in 2002).

2:40 p.m. ET: Both players in Sunday's final pairing, Keegan Bradley and Adam Scott, are hanging tough as they vie for the BMW Championship title and spots at East Lake. The two veterans share the lead at 13-under, two clear of Ludvig Aberg, as they play the sixth hole. Bradley would project to move from 50th to fifth on the FedExCup with a win; Scott would project from No. 41 to No. 4 with a win.

2:30 p.m. ET: It might be too little, too late, but Jason Day closes birdie-birdie to move to projected No. 32 on the FedExCup. Day stands T34 for the week at 1-over; he currently holds a 13.2% chance to make the top 30, per Data Golf.

Justin Thomas has been riding the bubble all day, and it's continuing, as he projects No. 30.

2:00 p.m. ET: The bubble's razor-thin margins are being exemplified by Tommy Fleetwood, who drains a 22-foot birdie at the par-4 sixth to move from T14 to T10 on the BMW leaderboard, and crucially from projected No. 31 to No. 27 on the FedExCup standings.

1:55 p.m. ET: Christiaan Bezuidenhout completes a final-round 69 at Castle Pines for a 1-over 289 total, and he's currently T34 for the tournament. Most importantly, he's projected No. 29 on the FedExCup standings, inside the critical top 30 as he seeks his first TOUR Championship appearance. It's a sizable jump after he finished No. 109 on last year's FedExCup (No. 106 on the FedExCup Fall).

He's far from a lock, though, as several bubble characters remain on the course and could bump him.

1:45 p.m. ET: Justin Thomas two-putts for par at Castle Pines' long par-4 18th, draining a 7-footer, to post a final-round 68 for a 72-hole total of 2-over 290. Now he waits.

Thomas, currently T37 for the week, began the week at No. 22 on the FedExCup standings and is currently projected at No. 29. It's a shaky position, with players on the course who could impact his spot including Brian Harman, Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, Chris Kirk (projected Nos. 30-33, respectively) and more.

1:33 p.m. ET: The par-5 14th hole could prove costly for current bubble boy Jason Day, whose second shot sailed out of bounds en route to a triple bogey. The setback moves Day from 30th to 31st on the projected FedExCup, moving Brian Harman to projected No. 30. Harman is T26 for the tournament (3 under) with 10 holes to play Sunday.

After a birdie at the par-5 17th hole, Justin Thomas stands T39 for the week (2-over) to the 72nd hole. Thomas is projected as No. 29 on the FedExCup, but it could be a tenuous spot as the afternoon unfolds.

1:25 p.m. ET: The top-30 bubble is shifting fast and furious, with Jason Day currently the projected No. 30.

Day, who began the week at No. 25 on the FedExCup, began Sunday T38 on the tournament leaderboard and is 4 under through 13 holes, jumping nine spots to T29.

1:10 p.m. ET:Matt Fitzpatrick is fighting to make a last-ditch run to East Lake, and he's doing so without the use of his driver. Fitzpatrick, who entered the week at No. 33 on the FedExCup, suffered a hairline fracture in his driver midway through the front nine Sunday, but the damage's extent didn't render it out of play, per a conversation with PGA TOUR Rules staff on-site.

Under the USGA’s Model Local Rule G-9, a club is not replaceable solely because of a crack, and he was not permitted to replace it at the time due to lack of significant damage.

Fitzpatrick is even-par Sunday through 11 holes, 1-over total, and T32 for the week. He currently projects No. 41 on the FedExCup.

1:05 p.m. ET: As things stand, four players are projected to move inside the top 30 at the BMW Championship, led by 54-hole leader Keegan Bradley, who is projected to move from No. 50 to No. 4. Adam Scott (solo second) is projected to move from No. 41 to No. 9, with Alex Noren (T3) projected to vault from No. 45 to No. 21. Tommy Fleetwood (T8) is projected to move from No. 31 to No. 26.

The four players currently slated to fall outside the top 30 are Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Davis Thompson, Brian Harman and Denny McCarthy.

1 p.m. ET: There's no shortage of top-30 bubble action among Sunday's early starters at the BMW, with Justin Thomas taking center stage into his final few holes, currently projected No. 30 on the FedExCup.

Thomas is 3 under for the final round through 14 holes, 3 over for the tournament, and he stands T39 on the tournament leaderboard after beginning the day in a tie for 46th. The two-time major winner looks to be set up for a nervy afternoon on the bubble, similar to the fate of Keegan Bradley (who finished No. 50) and Tom Kim (who finished No. 51) at last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Thomas, who fell short of the FedExCup Playoffs a season ago, entered the BMW at No. 22 on the FedExCup.