FedExCup update: Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Thomas, Nick Dunlap highlight big names on bubble ahead of Sunday at BMW Championship

CASTLE PINES VILLAGE, Colo. – Tommy Fleetwood just hoped to have a chance on Sunday. When you start outside the bubble, that’s all you're asking for.

Mission accomplished. Now comes the hard part: sealing the deal.

Fleetwood is amongst a horde of big names that find themselves in a precarious position around the top-30 bubble after three rounds of the BMW Championship. Fleetwood began the week 31st, the last man out of East Lake, but a Saturday 70 was enough to vault him to 29th.

“I’m sure [the FedExCup] will play a part in [the drama],” Fleetwood said. “I would love to make it to TOUR champ.”

He’s not alone. The bubble is littered with name-brand stars many would expect to play at the TOUR Championship. More than a few will be on the outside looking in come Sunday evening. Brian Harman is 28th; Justin Thomas is 31st; Jason Day is 32nd. A little further down, Will Zalatoris (38th) and Nick Dunlap (40th) lurk, still with a realistic chance ahead of the final round.

It’s the game within the game that will play out on the grounds of Castle Pines Golf Club. Fleetwood and Dunlap have had the best weeks of the bunch, tied for ninth at 5-under. But seven shots back from leader Keegan Bradley, they’re playing in a different tournament.

Some have more control over their fate than others. Zalatoris and Harman have great opportunities to control their own destiny. Zalatoris, who shot even-par 72 on Saturday, is just two shots back from Si Woo Kim and Taylor Pendrith tied in seventh at 6-under. Current TOUR projections show Zalatoris needs to jump into the top seven to reach the top 30. Harman, who shot 71, only needs to maintain his current position on the leaderboard.

Thomas is tied for 45th at 6-over but is only four FedExCup points behind No. 30 Christiaan Bezuidenhout, the difference of a single shot. He’s trying not to miss East Lake for just the third time in his career.

“I know I'm in a good place, and I feel like likely if I play how I feel like I should, I'm fine,” Thomas said Tuesday.

His margin of error is much bigger than others.

Jason Day, tied for 37th, needs to jump at least eight spots on the leaderboard to have a chance. That’s a difference of four shots. Nick Dunlap needs to finish solo-fourth or better to potentially play his way into East Lake. He’s currently T9.

Dunlap was part of the pressure-packed Sunday at the FedEx St. Jude Championship a week ago. He said he was a “train wreck” coming down the stretch, needing and securing par on the 18th to play his way into the top 50. He finds himself in a familiar position. Can he secure the same outcome?

Moving in

Keegan Bradley (No. 50, projected to No. 4): After sweating out the bubble in Memphis to earn the final spot in the 50-player BMW field, Bradley could quickly vault himself into the thick of contention at East Lake. Bradley made eight birdies and six bogeys in a topsy-turvy day that ended with him at the top of the leaderboard, ahead of Adam Scott by one shot.

Adam Scott (No. 41, projected to No. 9): The Australian needs a two-way T20 at minimum at the BMW, and likely more, to move inside the top 30 and qualify for his 13th TOUR Championship. He stumbled on Saturday but is still just one shot back, eying a victory more than the bubble.

Alex Noren (No. 45, projected to No. 22): The Swede needs a solo 14th at minimum for a chance to qualify for his first TOUR Championship, and he’s well on his way after a back-nine 32 pushed him into a tie for third.

Tommy Fleetwood (No. 31, projected to No. 29): He’s in for now, but that could change in an instant. Fleetwood shot a solid Saturday 70 to push himself into the top-30.

Moving out

Justin Thomas (No. 22, projected to No. 31): It’s a precipitous fall for Thomas, who has not played well through three days. After entering the Playoffs at No. 16 in the rankings, almost assured of returning to the TOUR Championship, the two-time major winner is barely on the outside looking in, just four FedExCup points from the top 30.

Jason Day (No. 25, projected to No. 32): Still battling back from a 6-over 78 in the first round, the Aussie carded his second straight under-par round. He will need another to move into a top-30 position.

Davis Thompson (No. 26, projected to No. 35): The second-year TOUR pro, who broke through for his first title at the John Deere Classic, is 3-over through three rounds at the BMW, projected outside the top 30.

Denny McCarthy (No. 30, projected to No. 37): McCarthy rode the bubble at last year’s BMW before finishing No. 33 on the FedExCup; he looks to avoid the same fate. McCarthy shot 3-under on Saturday but only improved his projection by one spot.