Five players with a lot at stake Sunday at FedEx St. Jude Championship

MEMPHIS, Tenn. – Hideki Matsuyama holds a five-shot lead entering the final round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship, a margin that may remove any drama from Sunday’s title chase. But there’s always more than a trophy to pursue during the FedExCup Playoffs.

Matsuyama already has had a strong year, winning The Genesis Invitational and an Olympic bronze medal. He entered this week ranked eighth in the FedExCup, his 10th TOUR Championship berth in the last 11 years all but a guarantee.

Players won’t just be looking at the leaderboards on Sunday. They’ll be following the projected FedExCup standings, as well, to see if they can earn one of the 50 coveted spots at next week’s BMW Championship. Qualifying for the BMW Championship comes with starts in all of next year’s Signature Events, making it an important threshold.

The Presidents Cup also is rapidly approaching, and the Playoffs are players’ last opportunities to rehearse for their respective captains.

That means that while Matsuyama sits comfortably atop the leaderboard, storylines will abound Sunday at TPC Southwind. Here’s a look at five players with a lot at stake Sunday at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

1. Viktor Hovland

The struggles of last year’s FedExCup champion have been well-documented. A third-place finish at the PGA Championship is his lone top-10 of the year. As it pertains to his FedExCup defense, however, he’s peaking at the right time. Hovland enters the final round alone in third place, projected to qualify for the two Playoffs events he won last year. Hovland entered the Playoffs at No. 57 in the standings but now stands 20th in the projections.

Hovland was 2 over for the first 15 holes this week but has gone 13 under since. He birdied the final two holes of his first round to salvage a 70, then followed his Friday 63 with a 66 today. He has just one bogey over his past 36 holes.

“Off the tee and into the greens, it was very good,” Hovland said. “I put myself in nice positions off the tee and hit a lot of greens, gave myself a lot of looks. I would have liked to have put a ball a little bit closer, but it was very solid from start to finish. A lot of the good swings, I'm seeing those more often. The ball is starting to behave like I'm expecting it to.”

On Saturday, Hovland ranked first in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and second in Approach-the-Green. He missed just four fairways and four greens. That’s the Hovland we’re accustomed to seeing.

Hovland surely wants to defend his title at next week’s BMW Championship, and he’d like to get a first-hand look at the restored East Lake, where he won the 2023 TOUR Championship. Hovland has struck up a friendship with Andrew Green, the architect who led East Lake’s restoration, while Green has renovated Karsten Creek Golf Club in Stillwater, Oklahoma. That’s the home course for Hovland’s alma mater, Oklahoma State. Hovland would love to get a first-hand look at Green’s work at East Lake instead of watching his friends play it without him.

2. Nick Dunlap

Nick Dunlap has been watching the broadcast of this week’s U.S. Amateur when he hasn’t been on the golf course. The timing has added context to his incredible 2024. Dunlap knows he could have been at Hazeltine Golf Club as the U.S. Amateur’s defending champion. Instead, he’s competing in the FedExCup Playoffs opener already with two PGA TOUR titles to his name.

Dunlap has an opportunity to add a third. He will play alongside Hideki Matsuyama in Sunday’s final group. Even if Dunlap doesn’t win, he has a lot to play for Sunday. He was one of the last players to qualify for the Playoffs – he didn’t earn his spot until winning last month’s Barracuda Championship – and started this week ranked 67th in the FedExCup (only the top 70 in the standings qualified for the FedEx St. Jude).

Dunlap is currently projected to rise to 12th in the standings, which would lock up his spot at both the BMW and the TOUR Championship. By cracking the top 50 in the FedExCup, Dunlap would earn starts in all of next year’s Signature Events (a perk he got to enjoy this year by winning The American Express in January). Making the top 30 comes with starts in the majors.

But a strong finish here also could make Dunlap a candidate for this year’s U.S. Presidents Cup team. He’s one of just four players with multiple individual wins this season. Dunlap has fought inconsistency this season – he has just one top-10 in addition to his wins and has missed eight cuts – but that is understandable considering the rapid transition from college sophomore to PGA TOUR pro that took place over a matter of days. A strong Playoffs run would prove he’s peaking at the right time.

“I'm honestly looking forward to a little bit of a break and to kind of recap the year and sit back and celebrate and look back on some of the things that have happened this year,” Dunlap said. “It's honestly incredible, and I never would have thought I'd be standing here.”

That rest may have to wait.

3. Scottie Scheffler

Barring the most unlikely scenarios, Scottie Scheffler will ride his FedExCup lead all the way to East Lake. This will mark the third consecutive year that he arrives at the TOUR Championship in the No. 1 position, but he has yet to capitalize on that advantage.

Entering the FedEx St. Jude Championship’s final round in fourth place, seven behind Matsuyama, Scheffler still stands to grow his lead over Xander Schauffele. So, what’s at stake for Scheffler if he can’t be supplanted from atop the FedExCup?

History.

He already has six PGA TOUR wins in 2024, and that doesn’t include the Olympic gold medal. These final three weeks of the FedExCup chase offer opportunities to add to his incredible season. Seven wins would be the most on TOUR since Tiger Woods in 2007.

While coming back from a seven-shot deficit may seem unlikely – PGATOUR.COM puts his win percentage at 3.2% -- Scheffler need only look back to the Olympics. He started that round six shots behind leader Jon Rahm, but shot a back-nine 29 for a 62 that gave him the gold medal.

Like Le Golf National, the Olympics venue, TPC Southwind features a plethora of penalty areas that can result in rapid scoring swings.

“Going into tomorrow, I'll do what I can to put some pressure on Hideki, but if he goes out tomorrow and shoots another 5-, 6-under, he's going to be a pretty tough guy to catch,” Scheffler said. “But I'm definitely not totally out of the tournament.”

4. Will Zalatoris

He won his first PGA TOUR title here two years ago, but so much of the ensuing 24 months has been defined by his back injury. He had to sit out the remainder of 2022 after winning the FedEx St. Jude Championship, then competed in just eight events last year.

This year has been frustrating for its fits and starts. There were promising signs when he finished in the top-5 in two early Signature Events, and T9 at the Masters, but he hasn’t had a finish better than T41 since. He’s missed the cut or withdrawn in five of his last six starts.

Zalatoris is enjoying a good week in his return to Memphis. He is T6 entering the final round and projected to leap from 49th to 34th in the FedExCup. Zalatoris had to rely on a sponsor exemption into The Genesis Invitational this year, where he finished second. Now he’s one day away from locking up his spots in next year’s Signature Events. Considering the plethora of points available atop the leaderboard, another good round also could lock up his East Lake spot. That would provide a happy ending to a difficult season.

“It's been a pretty long year, to put it mildly,” Zalatoris said. “Some ups and downs with kind of the recovery with the back. … I've busted my tail for three or four months and haven't gotten much out of it. But hard work and a good attitude, eventually the good stuff is going to come, and it's nice to do it at a place that I really love.”

5. Sam Burns

Burns started the week on multiple bubbles. He’s 29th in the FedExCup standings and 13th in the U.S. Presidents Cup standings. He could burst both Sunday. Burns enters the final round in a tie for fourth with his good buddy Scheffler.

Burns is currently projected to rise to 17th in the FedExCup, a position that would lock up his fourth consecutive TOUR Championship appearance. Burns also has appeared on the last two U.S. teams (2022 Presidents Cup, 2023 Ryder Cup). The United States’ six automatic qualifiers will be cemented after the final round of next week’s BMW Championship, while six captain’s picks will be made after the TOUR Championship.

So far, Burns is acing his audition. He’s had a solid year – his six top-10s rank seventh this season – but also is without a win. He had four consecutive top-10s in January and February before slowing down in the spring. He’s been showing positive signs in the summer, however, finishing T9 at the U.S. Open and contending at The Open before a final-round 80. He also finished T12 in his last start, at the 3M Open.

“I've had some ups and downs,” Burns said of his season. “I haven't really been as consistent as I would have liked to have been. But this is a good time to play well. Hopefully we can finish it off.”