Scenarios for TOUR Championship: Jordan Spieth projected No. 31 into Sunday at BMW

OLYMPIA FIELDS, Ill. – Entering the final round of the BMW Championship, several players are tightly bunched around the pivotal top-30 bubble.

The top 30 players on the season-long FedExCup standings after the BMW Championship will qualify for next week’s TOUR Championship, which uses a Starting Strokes format to determine the FedExCup Champion.

All 30 players who qualify for the TOUR Championship will have a chance at the FedExCup crown. The first order of business is simply getting there, and the final round at Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course) promises to bring abundant drama.

The action amongst the standings is sure to be fast and furious Sunday in Chicagoland. Here’s a look at five players around the bubble and how their scenarios are shaping up.

Jordan Spieth (projected No. 31): The always-entertaining Spieth faces a staunch fight Sunday as he eyes his third consecutive TOUR Championship appearance, after missing three in a row from 2018-2020.

After entering the BMW Championship at No. 27 on the FedExCup, Spieth has carded rounds of 68, 70 and 72 at Olympia Fields and stands T30 ahead of the final round. He’ll begin Sunday projected No. 31 on the FedExCup, trailing Denny McCarthy by just 3 points.

Just one birdie would project Spieth to No. 28 on the FedExCup, while a bogey would drop him back to projected No. 32, showing just how close this race will be down the stretch. One bogey by McCarthy would move Spieth into the No. 30 spot.

Spieth has long possessed a flair for the dramatic, and he’s shaping up as Sunday’s central bubble boy of intrigue. He’ll tee off Sunday at 9:44 a.m. local time, more than three hours before the final pairing, meaning he could be in for a topsy-turvy afternoon of seeing the numbers shake out.

Denny McCarthy (projected No. 30): The University of Virginia alum has developed into a steady TOUR veteran, but he has yet to qualify for the TOUR Championship (last year was his best shot to date; he finished No. 37).

McCarthy entered the week No. 34 in the standings, and carded a third-round 65 to move into position for his first trip to East Lake. He currently stands T7 on the leaderboard and if the tournament ended today would secure the 30th and final spot at the TOUR Championship.

McCarthy’s narrow 3-point advantage over Spieth puts immense pressure on each shot in his final round. A bogey would drop him to projected No. 33; a double bogey would project him to No. 34.

The Maryland native said he strived for a “don’t-care attitude” on Saturday, and it led to a 5-under 65 that was bettered by only Sam Burns (62) and Scottie Scheffler (64). The final-round implications at Olympia Fields will put that perspective to the ultimate test.

He’ll tee off Sunday at 12:17 p.m. local time, alongside Sam Burns, who entered the week 30th on the FedExCup and is currently projected No. 19 (tied for seventh this week) after tying the course record on Saturday.

Matt Fitzpatrick (projected No. 5): The Northwestern alum entered the week at 40th on the FedExCup, needing an eighth-place finish at minimum (and likely more) to punch his ticket to East Lake.

Fitzpatrick has answered the bell to this point, carding rounds of 66-67-66 at Olympia Fields to assume the co-lead into Sunday alongside Scottie Scheffler. Fitzpatrick is projected No. 5 in the FedExCup standings into the final round, but will need to hold onto that lead to maintain a final spot anywhere close to the top five. A bogey would drop him to projected 10th; two bogeys would project him 16th, with the points continuing to fall off from there.

The upshot: Even if Fitzpatrick falls short of the BMW Championship title, his score could very much have TOUR Championship implications down to the final putt.

“There’s no guarantee I’m in Atlanta yet,” Fitzpatrick said after the third round. “Happy to give myself at least a chance going into tomorrow.”

He’ll play in Sunday’s final group at 12:50 p.m. local time, alongside Scheffler.

Tyrrell Hatton (projected No. 29): The feisty Englishman will be one of Sunday’s early starters at Olympia Fields, and he’s riding the bubble as he seeks a trip to East Lake.

With rounds of 70-72-68, Hatton stands T30 on the leaderboard and is projected No. 29 in the FedExCup, just .114 points ahead of Denny McCarthy.

Hatton has no wiggle room; one bogey would drop him to projected No. 32 in the standings. He’ll tee off Sunday at 9:55 a.m. local time, looking to embrace the grind and secure his second TOUR Championship appearance.

Sahith Theegala (projected No. 34): The second-year TOUR member qualified for last year’s TOUR Championship and is looking to make it 2-for-2. He’ll have a chance, but his work is cut out for him.

Theegala, 25, has opened in rounds of 66-72-69 at Olympia Fields, and he stands T19 into the final round of the tournament. He entered the week at No. 31 on the FedExCup and is now projected No. 34.

One birdie would move Theegala to projected No. 33; two birdies would project him at No. 29. He’ll tee off Sunday at 11:06 a.m. local time alongside defending champion Patrick Cantlay, looking to showcase his finest form and extend his Playoffs run.