Analytics predict the finishing stretch of the Wyndham Rewards Top 10

After exciting finishes at both the World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and Barracuda Championship, only two tournaments remain in the race to determine the Wyndham Rewards Top 10. The season-long competition gives out $10 million in bonus money to the top 10 in the standings at the conclusion of the PGA TOUR’s regular season.

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Using a projected tournament field for next week’s Wyndham Championship, player performance data and other forecasting tools, 15th Club ran more than 20,000 simulations of the PGA Championship and Wyndham Championship. Below are some key players to keep an eye on as they try to maneuver themselves into the Wyndham Rewards Top 10 or defend their spot in the top 10.

Brendon Todd

Current FedExCup position: 9
Odds of finishing in Wyndham Rewards Top 10: 58%

Twice since the PGA TOUR season resumed in June, Brendon Todd has entered the final round with the lead and a chance to notch his third win of the season. Unfortunately, Todd struggled in each of those final rounds, failing to record a birdie in either. A win at either the Travelers Championship or last week at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational would have locked up his spot in the Top 10, but now he enters the last two weeks of the season in a precarious position. Todd’s story in 2019-2020 has been a terrific one, but he’ll need a strong closing stretch to secure a piece of the $10 million bonus.

Jon Rahm

Current FedExCup position: 10
Odds of finishing in Wyndham Rewards Top 10: 62.5%

Rahm enters the PGA Championship as one of the favorites, and rightfully so: he’s finished 11th or better in four of the last five majors contested. The one exception to that trend, though, came at last year’s PGA when Rahm missed the cut at Bethpage Black. Currently the last man in the Wyndham Rewards Top 10, Rahm will need to avoid replicating that to keep his footing in the Top 10.

TPC Harding Park is expected to cater to elite players off the tee, which bodes well for Rahm. He’s ranked fifth this season in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and eighth in average distance of all drives. Rahm last played in the Wyndham Championship four years ago, and a return to North Carolina might be necessary to lock down a finish in the Top 10.

Xander Schauffele

Current FedExCup position: 11
Odds of finishing in Wyndham Rewards Top 10: 22.7%

Schauffele has seen growth in virtually every aspect of his game over the last two seasons. Consider this: he’s jumped up the rankings each of the last two years in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (57th to 22nd to seventh), Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (62nd to 11th to sixth) and greens in regulation (119th to 43rd to fifth). He’s one of two players ranked in the top 10 in both scrambling and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee this season. And since the PGA TOUR season restart, he’s ranked fifth in Strokes Gained: Total.

Our model says Schauffele has an outside shot at making a big leap in the standings, as well. Our model says he has a 5.5% chance of leaping into the top five in the standings.

Abraham Ancer

Current FedExCup position: 13
Odds of finishing in Wyndham Rewards Top 10: 20.8%

Ancer came out of the blocks hot in the restart, finishing in the top 15 in the first three events. Since the restart, Ancer ranks fifth in scoring average, sixth in Strokes Gained: Total and 11th in bogey avoidance. A second-round 75 last week may have derailed his victory plans, but Ancer shot 65-66 on the weekend to bring momentum into the year’s first major championship.

Ancer has played in the Wyndham Championship three of the previous four years, missing the cut twice and finishing 24th in 2018.

Hideki Matsuyama

Current FedExCup position: 18
Odds of finishing in Wyndham Rewards Top 10: 8.4%

He’s eight spots out of the bonus pool at the moment, but our model still gives Matsuyama a reasonable shot at moving into the Wyndham Rewards Top 10. Matsuyama has been solid if not spectacular since the Return to Golf, finishing in the top-25 in three of his last four events. Matsuyama has averaged +1.25 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round since golf returned, seventh-best in that span.

Matsuyama has three top-15 finishes in his career at the Wyndham Championship, including a tie for third in 2016. Another high-level performance there could be the key to move Matsuyama into the Top 10.

Patrick Cantlay

Current FedExCup position: 31
Odds of finishing in Wyndham Rewards Top 10: 3.1%

Patrick Cantlay is one of the most interesting potential movers over the next two weeks. 15th Club performance analytics are incredibly high on Cantlay – he ranks third in our Performance Index – and predict a strong performance this week in San Francisco. The UCLA product has no statistical weaknesses, ranking in the top 60 in every Strokes Gained category this season.

With 21 players to leapfrog to get into the bonus pool, Cantlay will need to finish with a flourish to jump into the Wyndham Rewards Top 10. A great week at the PGA Championship and return to the Wyndham for the first time in six years could do the trick.