Why a Masters in November could benefit Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy – needing a win at Augusta National to complete the career Grand Slam -- plays well late in the season, and therefore will benefit from a rescheduled Masters.

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That was the logic Jack Nicklaus used when he recently told the Golf Channel the new November date could benefit the two-time FedExCup champion. After all, it was only last November when McIlroy beat Xander Schauffele in a playoff at the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions. McIlroy’s late-season theatrics also include winning two FedExCups, two PGA Championships, and two (European Tour) DP World Tour Championships in Dubai.

All of those accomplishments came in golf’s late, August-through-November stretch.

And now the Masters is set for Nov. 12-15 in the revised golf calendar announced earlier this week. A win that week by McIlroy would make him the sixth player to achieve the career Grand Slam, although theoretically Jordan Spieth (PGA Championship, now Aug. 6-9) or Phil Mickelson (U.S. Open, now Sept. 18-21) could beat him to the punch. (Mickelson, by the way, is not yet qualified for the U.S. Open.)

In a sense, trying to predict how McIlroy might fare at a November Masters is a fool’s errand. For one thing, the coronavirus pandemic may or may not allow for the tournament, and others, to come off at all. For another, the top-ranked player in the world is by definition best equipped to adapt to any change – be it a new date or some other twist.

Oh, also: It’s not like McIlroy needs to change his fortunes all that much to win the Masters. He has finished in the top 10 there in five of his last six starts. That the course suits him has been obvious since he led by four shots through 54 holes in 2011, only to fall apart on the back nine on the way to a final-round 80.

As he said last year about Augusta National, “If I haven’t figured it out by now, there’s something wrong.”

Had the Masters been held as originally scheduled this week, McIlroy surely would’ve been a a big favorite. Not just because of his track record and obvious motivation, but also his recent form – seven consecutive worldwide top-5 finishes, including all four of his PGA TOUR starts in the 2020 calendar year that has left him currently No. 3 in the FedExCup standings. In fact, going back to his last 14 worldwide starts, he has two TOUR wins and 10 other top-10 finishes.

He seemed to be peaking at the perfect time.

Now he’ll need to peak again in six months.

Asked on a Golf Channel media conference call Thursday what they thought of Nicklaus’ assessment, analysts Notah Begay III, Brandel Chamblee and Justin Leonard did not disagree, but gave their own reasons why November might suit McIlroy just fine, or better than that.

“I've never been to Augusta in November, but my guess is that the golf course could play a little bit softer,” Leonard said. “… We know how well Rory McIlroy plays in kind of softer conditions.” (McIlroy cruised to his first major title, the 2011 U.S. Open, on a wet, soft course at Congressional and has since dominated on other wet, soft venues, particularly at the PGA.)

Added Chamblee, “My friends who have played there in November tell me the golf course plays quite long.” (McIlroy was second in driving distance and sixth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee when the season was suspended after round one of THE PLAYERS Championship last month.)

“I can't imagine any scenario that doesn't favor Rory,” Chamblee added.

Leonard and Chamblee also noted McIlroy’s remarkable consistency (a TOUR-leading 14 top-10s, with three wins, last season), and his ability to put together long stretches of greatness. That could bode well for him in a late summer and fall that could be chock full of big events.

Begay seconded that and added another factor that might help McIlroy: No longer the season’s first major, the Masters – if the reconfigured schedule goes according to plan – would be the last.

“So that might change a little bit of the mind-set,” Begay said. “That might change a little bit of the approach. He might have already won one by then.”

Not only would McIlroy be coming in hot, he would be coming to a Masters for which the golf world would not be converging with quite the usual amount of pent-up anticipation.

“So it actually could benefit him in a couple of ways from a mental standpoint,” Begay said.

Added the Golf Channel’s Rich Lerner, moderating the discussion: “Just to put a button on this Rory conversation: 27 pro wins combined, European Tour and PGA TOUR, seven of those wins have come in the month of September or beyond, and deep into November.”

Add it all up and a Masters in November might leave McIlroy with a very warm feeling, indeed.

The coronavirus pandemic is hitting Native Americans, including Begay’s Navajo Nation, especially hard. To donate to his COVID-19 response fund, go to nb3foundation.org.