International Team’s path to an upset

MELBOURNE, Australia – My colleagues at the PGA TOUR still laugh about it to this day. For me, though, it was no laughing matter.

It was Saturday afternoon in the media center at Liberty National in New Jersey during the 2017 Presidents Cup. The U.S. team were in the middle of an epic performance, demolishing the Internationals at almost every turn. In fact, it was almost over before Sunday Singles even arrived.

There I was … slumped in a chair, a defeated man. Some say they could see tears. I don’t know about that, but I was certainly drained of my usual enthusiasm, which many can attest is strong – and perhaps occasionally over-the-top -- in patriotic matters.

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Now you can argue I shouldn’t have cared that much. Should’ve been more objective – or at least less partisan. Or maybe that I should have even expected defeat, given the one-sidedness of this event.

But I am a very proud Australian and have always been a passionate supporter of the Internationals in the Presidents Cup. Even with an American wife and two American-born (but dual citizen) children, my loyalty remains tied to the Internationals.

And so – having been so adamant we could and would win at the start of the week – I was, at least for a little while, broken.

And so here we are again. Two years later and now in my home country. Pretty much everyone says the Internationals can’t win again. The Americans are stacked … look at the world rankings … the Internationals haven’t won since 1998 … Tiger Woods is the U.S. captain and he won’t lose. It’s true, the reasons are vast.

But this is not the time for me – or anyone else who bleeds International – to give up on hope. This is not the time to be the broken man I was. This is the time to believe again. Truly believe.

Buster Douglas knocked out Mike Tyson in his prime. Remember the Miracle on Ice at the 1980 Winter Olympics? There is always a path to victory in a two-horse race and here it is for Captain Ernie Els and his underdog team.

1. PLAYERS MUST BELIEVE IN THE DATA

Els has shaken things up in terms of pairings for his team. With the Internationals’ 1-10-1 record in the competition, Els figured something drastic had to change. So gone are the gut feelings and player-requested matchups. Els crunched the numbers with the gurus who helped Europe win the Ryder Cup in Paris. And despite the fact they are not what he thought they’d be, he’s running with it.

Now the key is getting the players to believe in it.

“Everyone has bought in completely. This is the way it's happening, and that's more important than anything else I think; that everybody believes that they are with the right guy and everybody's out in the right groups and the captain's got a plan,” assistant captain Geoff Ogilvy said Wednesday.

“With so much information we have … you'd be silly not to access that. There's been good results from other teams, and others doing it this way. So far, so good. I think everyone really is liking the process.”

It would help to get off to a fast start Thursday to reinforce the approach. The first day may be the most critical this week.

2. FANS CAN’T BE STAR-STRUCK

The Internationals are imploring the local Australian fans to get behind them. This doesn’t mean simply cheering loudly for the home team. This also means ignoring the opposition and making a challenging – but still respectful – environment.

Not only is this outside the norms of golf, it’s particularly hard for Australian fans given they rarely ever see the American stars up-close like this. It may even be the last time they see Tiger Woods live. As former International Presidents Cupper Frank Nobilo said on Golf Channel this week, “Tiger is going to be treated like a rock star.”

It’s easy for fans to forget he’s not supposed to be the winning captain this week.

If the Internationals are to really feed off the crowd, the crowd has to adapt. If you are a New York Jets fan, do you cheer for the Patriots when they score? Obviously not. That same kind of attitude would be very welcome for one week. It certainly was hostile in New Jersey the other way around two years ago.

“The crowd is going to help if they get on our side a little bit. I think it was quite lonely for us at Liberty sometimes with those mega-roars for them and crickets for us sometimes. It's difficult to play in that environment,” Ogilvy said. “Hopefully that environment shows up a little bit here. That's clearly an advantage, when you feel like you have got 20,000 members of your team, as opposed to 12, I think that really, really helps. I think that's more powerful.”

As for the Tiger factor, especially in the first Four-Ball match out on Thursday?

“He’s gonna get respectful cheers,” Ogilvy said. “We just want it lopsided like when we play over there. Thursday or Friday, everybody will be excited to see Tiger play. They’re all heroes. Rickie Dustin, everyone watches them every week. Once we get into the tournament and we make putts, our cheers get bigger. And those cheers grow and escalate.

“We need the crowd to buy into us.”

3. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF HOME COURSE

Royal Melbourne is sandbelt golf. A different style where length is not always the advantage, thanks to hard and fast greens and a design that punishes anyone who doesn’t respect the correct angles of attack.

With Els, the Internationals have a Royal Melbourne specialist. He won the Heineken Classic at the course in 2002, 2003 and 2004 and was runner-up in 2005. In 2004 he opened with a 12-under 60, still the course record today.

The team also has Ogilvy. He grew up playing Victoria Golf Club just down the road and has played Royal Melbourne more times than he can remember. Add Adam Scott, an honorary member at the course, and Marc Leishman, who is also from the wider area and there is significant course knowledge to tap in to.

“If we ever feel like we have a slightly higher level of comfort with a golf course, it's here,” Scott said. “Ernie, the assistants and the guys who have played here have really settled our first timers to Royal Melbourne nicely. I'm very optimistic.”

4. MAKE ROOKIES A PLUS

There are seven rookies on the International Team. And with an average age of 29.8, it’s the youngest team in Presidents Cup history. So yes, there is inexperience. On the flip side, there’s less scar tissue and more raw enthusiasm. The youngsters aren’t haunted by the memories of past failures, especially from two years ago.

The youthful infusion can rub off on the older guys.

“I think when you look at some of the guys like Scotty and Hideki and Louis that have been around for a while, in a certain way it's given them a little bit of life, too, to find some guys that they really can mentor and show them around, particularly on a golf course like this,” said assistant captain Trevor Immelman. “You know, maybe just a fresh perspective and maybe a little bit of a new energy and we'll see what happens

Added Ogilvy: “The young guys are just bouncing out of their skin to come play. The excitement level is just contagious.”

5. RIDE THE NEW RULES

Els successfully argued a change in the rules for the competition this time around that could potentially work in his favor. It is now required for each player to only play one of the four team sessions before Singles on Sunday.

If he needs to, Els can hide out-of-form players much better now. That could help negate the fact that 10 of the 12 U.S. players are ranked higher in the world rankings than the highest-ranked International.

6. PLAY YOUR BEST (DUH!)

At the end of the day, this is what it all comes down to. Only Louis Oosthuizen has a personal winning Presidents Cup record on the International Team. More Americans have played closer to top form.

Argue if you must about any disparity in talent level, but that assumes all players will have their ‘A’ game this week. The deeper American team might have a better chance of winning without bringing their best, but the Internationals don’t have that luxury. It’s why, as mentioned earlier, Els is taking a different approach.

“If the Internationals just went strength with strength, we know on paper they are going to lose,” Nobilo said. “To a certain degree when you look at this, Ernie Els thinks the only way they can win is that they have to roll the dice.”

Yet, they can negate that reliance on luck and risk-taking by simply playing well. Every golfer inside the top 100 in the world has a legitimate shot in beating a top-10 player on any given day. It’s why the No. 1 seed doesn’t always win the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play each year, or why the top point producer in the regular season doesn’t just roll to the FedExCup title each season.

At their best, the International Team has a chance. It’s a big ask, to be sure, but Els’ team is full of great stars and they have all proven good enough to best their American counterparts.

In all the Presidents Cups played outside North America, the Internationals have actually fared half-decent. There was the win at Royal Melbourne in 1998, a tie in South Africa in 2003, a loss at Royal Melbourne in 2011 and a very tight loss in South Korea in 2015. Points-wise, due mainly to the big 1998 win, the Internationals lead 67-63 in points in those four Presidents Cups.

Sure it is drawing somewhat of a long bow but clearly the U.S. team is more vulnerable after lengthy travel and on foreign soil.

“Look, at the end of the day, the talk is cheap,” Immelman said. “We're going to have to get out there and play some of the best golf of their lives if they want to have a shot at beating an amazing American Team. It's going to be a lot of fun for us to watch over the next few days.”

Indeed. If the Internationals bring their best, they can win.

When that happens, you won’t see me slumped in any chair. In fact you might just have to hold me back from a victory lap.