Experts roundtable: FedExCup Playoffs

The FedExCup Playoffs have arrived, and PGATOUR.COM’s experts take dead-aim at some of the pressing issues going into the three-tournament stretch that will decide the FedExCup trophy. Check back in two weeks for another roundtable heading into Playoffs finale, the TOUR Championship at East Lake.

1. The new format reduces the Playoffs from four events to three. Your thoughts?

MIKE McALLISTER, Managing Editor: It’s going to add more drama to THE NORTHERN TRUST. In the previous format, just 25 players were eliminated in the first event. Now it’s going to be 55 players eliminated on Sunday. No longer can you just ease your way into the next event. Gotta put the pedal down immediately.

BEN EVERILL, Staff Writer: It makes it feel even more cutthroat and that’s because it is. Sure, you may have secured your PGA TOUR card by making the top 125 but if you have serious designs on the FedExCup, you better play well throughout the Playoffs. It will also give more chance of the one-man Playoff blitz. We’ve constantly had guys go two or three weeks with sizzling form only to fade in the fourth. This should reward the hot hand.

SEAN MARTIN, Senior Editor: I appreciate the cut from 125 to 70. It really brings a sense of urgency to THE NORTHERN TRUST. Half the field at Liberty National faces the prospect of their season ending if they don’t perform well in the opener of the Playoffs.

CAMERON MORFIT, Staff Writer: With the week off prior to next year’s Wyndham Championship, I foresee the Wyndham becoming a place where guys go to try and solidify their FedExCup position. If you're in that 70-125 zone, why try and do all your work to move up in just one week?

ANDREW TURSKY, Equipment Insider: It certainly adds urgency and excitement to THE NORTHERN TRUST, but it also allows players to be a bit fresher come TOUR Championship time. I'd expect the final field of 30 to be sharp and game-ready after two events, rather than some players feeling the exhaustion after three.

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2. Brooks Koepka enters No. 1 in points. Will he end up there after the final putt at East Lake? And if not Brooks, then who?

McALLISTER: Koepka’s played 15 Playoffs events in his career and has just two top 10s. His best finish was a solo sixth at the 2017 TOUR Championship. So his track record in the Playoffs isn’t great. Will that matter this year? Doubt it. I think he’ll use this month to reconfirm that he’s the game’s best player.

EVERILL: I don’t think you can bet against him, especially with the new TOUR Championship format where you only need to look at the leaderboard to see your fate and don’t need to rely on others changing their positions. He’s on an incredible two-year run and enters the Playoffs fresh off destroying a world-class field, and Rory McIlroy head-to-head. If I had to lean to anyone else, it might be McIlroy. The venues help him and maybe he’s got the drive to fight back against Brooks.

MARTIN: Xander Schauffele. He has a win and a T7 at East Lake. He may not have the victories that Brooks does, but like Koepka, Xander has a knack for showing up in the big moments. I think this will be his time to steal some of the spotlight.

MORFIT: Koepka is already FedExCup No. 1, and should do well at the BMW at Medinah, so I foresee him going into East Lake with a nice cushion. Let's face it: This is his year.

TURSKY: I could see Rory McIlroy coming into the Playoffs feeling like he has something to prove, especially after last year's final-round 74 in the TOUR Championship while paired in the final group with Tiger Woods. Betting against Brooks right now, however, just isn't smart.

3. Tiger Woods has made five starts in the last four months. Is he ready for a busy August?

McALLISTER: Tiger has managed his playing schedule this season knowing (or at least assuming) he’ll have a compressed Playoffs run. He’s 28th in points, so he needs to do something in the first two events to make sure he reaches East Lake. His track record at Liberty National (two T2s) and Medinah (two wins) offers hope that he’ll be a factor the entire month.

EVERILL: It’s all about management for Woods. I think he goes all-in entering the opening round at THE NORTHERN TRUST and then evaluates from there. If he’s close to the lead, he invests full energy into the final three rounds looking to boost his positioning. Then he takes to Medinah with a less-is-best attitude in terms of practice, etc. before ramping back up at East Lake. If he starts slow in New York, he might be best off conserving some energy over the weekend (which might be forced on him if he misses the cut).

MARTIN: Tiger only has so many swings left. He’s said so himself. It’s been a long year, and the letdown from the Masters was more intense than even he would have expected. I think he’ll give it all but it’s going to be tough sledding. The fact that he’s on the bubble to qualify for the TOUR Championship will provide some motivation, however. I’m sure he wants to get back to defend his title and relive last year’s memorable scene.

MORFIT: He's going to be rusty for THE NORTHERN TRUST, so I'm not sure how that's going to go. But I think he'll do enough at the BMW at Medinah, one of his old favorites, to make it back to East Lake.

TURSKY: Tiger will certainly benefit from the Playoffs being reduced to three events, and like Sean said, he surely wants to get back to the TOUR Championship to defend his title. A well-rested and motivated Tiger Woods is dangerous, particularly on courses he's proven to play well. I expect at least one top-5 finish from the 2019 Masters champion.

4. Name two players who have the most at stake during the Playoffs.

McALLISTER: C.T. Pan is ranked 35th in points, so there’s the goal of moving inside the top 30 and nailing down all the benefits that go with it. He’s also eighth in Presidents Cup points, so he needs to at least keep that position after the BMW to automatically qualify for the International Team. Meanwhile, Sungjae Im is battling for Rookie of the Year honors with a handful of guys who’ve already won this season. If Im – whose best finish is a T3 – can win one of the Playoffs events, that may be enough to sway voters.

EVERILL: Jason Day has had a frustrating season, but he can rescue it with a hot Playoff run. Day starts the Playoffs outside the top 30 and is amazingly under pressure to remain inside the automatic selection zone for the International Presidents Cup team in the next two weeks. A potential International teammate for Day in C.T. Pan must also be feeling some heat. He’s around the International team and Tour Championship bubble. As good as he was in his win this season, Pan is no certainty of earning a pick from Ernie Els if he doesn’t stay inside the top eight.

MARTIN: Collin Morikawa and Matthew Wolff. They’re not just competing for the FedExCup. They’re also in the running for the Rookie of the Year honors, a pick on Tiger Woods’ team at this year’s Presidents Cup and a spot in the record books. I think at least one of them will be a captain’s pick, but like Jordan Spieth in 2013, they’ll need to impress in the postseason to earn a pick. I think Morikawa has a slight edge right now because of his consistency. He’s posted three consecutive top-5 finishes, including last week his win at Barracuda. Also, Morikawa and Wolff could each set the record for fewest starts needed to reach the TOUR Championship in the FedExCup era.

MORFIT: I agree with Ben that Jason Day has a lot riding on the Playoffs. It's been a strangely quiet year. What's happening with his health? What's happening with his quest to get back to the top of the game? What about his new partnership with Steve Williams? I have questions. The other guy with a lot at stake is No. 32 Lucas Glover. He's only made it to East Lake once and has done a lot of hard work to overcome operations on both knees. He'd like to get back to the elite level, which he briefly enjoyed with that U.S. Open victory a decade ago.

TURSKY: Morikawa and Wolff certainly have a lot on the line here, but it's all icing for their cake. Right now, Rickie Fowler (13th in FedExCup points) is 11th in Presidents Cup standings, and a strong Playoff performance would solidify his spot on the team. Surely it would be a huge disappointment for him to miss out. Here's another name: Charles Howell III. He's 15th in FedExCup points and within earshot of the Presidents Cup team (ranked 15th), which he hasn't been a part of since 2007. If he makes a push in the Playoffs, he could sneak his way in. Now that would be a great story.