Koepka holds lead going into Sunday at PGA Championship

FARMINGDALE, N.Y. – Seventy-two holes is a small sample, tiny enough to produce outlier results, but it also provides ample time for regression.

That’s what happened to Brooks Koepka on Saturday at Bethpage Black. His record-setting pace slowed, but he still played well enough to put the PGA Championship to a premature end.

This thing is over after Koepka shot 70 on Saturday to keep his seven-shot advantage. He sits at 12-under 198 (63-65-70). It’s the largest 54-hole lead in this tournament’s history, one that would require a historic collapse for Koepka to not leave Bethpage Black with the Wanamaker Trophy in hand.

“I’m definitely not going to let up,” said Koepka, who continued to bash driver with abandon even as his lead neared double-digits early in Saturday’s round. Bethpage Black may feature single-file fairways, but they’re no match for Koepka’s combination of length and accuracy.

It was the putter that let him down in the third round. Even though the putts didn’t fall, he still beat the field scoring average by more than two shots on a day when an inconsistent breeze blew through the Black Course.

Six shots is the largest 54-hole lead lost in PGA TOUR history. It was done most recently by Dustin Johnson, at the 2017 World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions.

Johnson is in the pack of Koepka’s closest pursuers, and he’s the only one with a PGA TOUR victory, let alone a major, to his name. Luke List, Harold Varner III and Jazz Janewattananond also are 5-under par.

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“I know guys are going to have to push on this golf course, and if you have to push, you’re going to make mistakes,” Koepka said.

He seems immune to them because he has the strength to recover even on the rare occasions that he does miss his mark. He hit just half his fairways Saturday, but still hit 14 greens. He’s made just five bogeys in 54 holes.

The 15th hole provided the perfect example of the advantage that his strength provides. Both he and playing partner Jordan Spieth missed the fairway on that long, uphill par-4. Spieth had to swing with all his might just to get his ball in the front bunker. Koepka was able to give himself a 15-foot birdie putt.

Koepka leads the field in greens hit (43 of 54) and proximity (26 feet, 1 inch). His Strokes Gained: Approach is +11.16, four more than the next-best player.

“When I'm over the shot, I'm very confident,” Koepka said.

His iron play was good enough for him to shoot even-par Saturday despite losing more than two strokes on the greens. Two of Saturday’s three bogeys were three-putts, including a miss from 3 feet on the ninth hole.

Players can be deserted quickly by a hot putter. It’s less likely that their ball-striking will leave them when they need it most. That’s why it seems unfathomable that Koepka’s incredible week at Bethpage Black would end with him setting an ignominious mark. When asked if he had any doubt that he would win, Koepka was quick to answer. “No.” It was the only reasonable answer, even if players are taught to hide behind humility."

“I feel confident. I feel good. I feel excited,” Koepka said. “I was excited to get to the golf course and try to build the lead.”

He did, with birdies on two of his first five holes. But then he had to grind as the wind picked up and he entered Bethpage’s toughest holes. He made back-to-back bogeys on 9 and 10 after making just two in his first 44 holes. Playing the last eight holes in even par, with a birdie on 13 and three-putt on 16, was enough for him to regain a seven-shot advantage.

“He’s tough. Major championships are about heart and taking pain,” said his instructor, Claude Harmon III. “You ask any of the guys who do it, you’re going to have these runs. He made two bogeys back-to-back and then he made birdie when he needed to and had good looks on 15 and 17. He stands up and hits good shots when it counts.”

That may be an even bigger asset than his strength. Even brutish Bethpage Black has yet to get the best of him. His demeanor never changed, even when the New York fans booed after he missed short putts.

“I know what I’m doing. It’s simpler than what guys think,” Koepka said. “It’s just focus. It’s grind it out, suck it up and move on.”

Koepka kept doing that Saturday, and with each step he got closer to another major championship.