Horses for Courses: Scottie Scheffler aims to join rarified air in Masters title defense

The field for the first major championship of the year makes the annual pilgrimage to the hallowed grounds of Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia.

Course history is one of the most important factors this week. Navigating the 7,555 yards (par 72) of undulating fairways, judging the nuanced Bentgrass greens, and handling the pressure of joining an elite club of winners comes with experience. The last winner on debut, outside the first handful of events in the 1930s, was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

The average player needs around seven starts to win the Masters. There is nothing average about Scottie Scheffler (+400) and his ability to impose his will on this course. Winning his first green jacket in 2022, he posted T10 after hosting the champions’ dinner and returned last year to pick up his second victory. The Texan would join Jack Nicklaus, Sir Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods as the only players to defend the title successfully. He would also become the first player since Nicklaus to win three events in four years. The only player of the four to produce 10-under or better twice in the last four tournaments, his scoring average from 20 rounds is a stout 70.40, with his worst finish T19 on debut in 2020.

Former champion Jon Rahm (+1400) is the only player in the last three years to slow down Scheffler. The Spaniard, a winner in 2023 at 28, is the fourth player from his native land to don the green jacket and is one of three players over the last four years to be 30 years old or younger at the time of victory. Seven of the previous 10 champions were in their 20s, but the average winner is 33. Making his ninth start, Rahm has made the cut in all eight visits and owns five top-10 results. Last year, as defending champion, he posted T45, his only payday outside T27. His scoring average from 32 rounds is 70.97.

SG: Approach the Green

Players listed below are competing this week; 2025 ranking

With generous landing areas off the tee and a second cut off the fairway not reaching an inch and a half, attacking the 6,486-foot Bentgrass greens is the key to success at Augusta National Golf Club. Almost as critical as landing the ball on the proper level is knowing where to miss the green if a perfect club or yardage is unattainable. The experience of knowing when to push the gas or step on the brakes and execute the trajectory and spin to hold shots will separate the top of the leaderboard again. Since 2015, Patrick Reed, who putted the dimples off the golf ball, is the only player not to register in the top 10 of Greens in Regulation. Seven of the last 10 winners have registered in the top 10 in SG: Approach the green. Only Reed, Sergio Garcia, another short-game wizard, and Scheffler in 2024, broke this trend.

Patrick Reed (+9000) added his name to history books in 2018 by putting on a clinic with his putter and elite short game. Earning seven paychecks from each start since his victory, including four paydays of T12 or better, he has qualified for the weekend nine times in 11 starts. His formula for success is getting up and down and gaining strokes on and around the greens.

Bursting onto the scene with T2 in 2014 on debut, Jordan Spieth (+3500) revealed that he was a quick study of Augusta National. On return in 2015, the Texan matched Tiger Woods’ tournament scoring record (18-under) and blew away the field by four shots to earn his only green jacket. Rae’s Creek cost him dearly on the 12th Sunday in 2016, as he finished T2 but failed to add his name to the list of winners who successfully defended the title. Adding a solo third in 2018 and T3 in 2021, he owns five podium finishes. Earning T4 in 2023, he owns six top-10 paydays from 11 starts. In 40 rounds, his career scoring average is 70.95

Par-5 Birdie or Better Percentage

Players listed below are competing this week; 2025 ranking

The demanding par-4 holes, plus the nuanced par-3 challenges, do not provide a litany of scoring chances over 72 holes. The four par-5s can save the day or stretch the lead. Those four holes rank Nos. 15 through 18 as the easiest on the card, but the two opportunities on the inward nine provide water on approach. In 2024, Hole No. 15, the final par-5, produced only one eagle. The previous five winners have ranked T6 or better in par-5 scoring for the week. Not only does power play off the tee, but the ability to hold wedges and lag putt, essentially a full bag, is required to push into the top of the leaderboard here.

Leading the non-winner division of Horses for Courses, Cameron Smith (+5500) joins Adam Scott and Jason Day as Australians who have performed well at Augusta National. In all of his eight starts, The Open champion from 2022 has never missed a cut here and owns five top-10 results since 2016. Over his last five starts, he took home T10 or better four times, including T3 in 2022 and T6 in 2024. An elite scrambler and putter of this generation, his best payday was in the November edition of 2020 (T2).

With another climb up the leaderboard on the weekend, Rory McIlroy (+650) would earn his eighth top-10 result and 13th top-25 payday in his 17th start. The runner-up in 2022 to Scheffler, the last two years have produced T22-MC. A run of top-10 paydays in six of seven years from 2014 through 2020 brought more heartache than joy. A victory would see the Ulsterman complete the career Grand Slam and trail only Sergio Garica (19th) for the most starts needed to win for the first time.

The 89th Masters Tournament notables

• The field of 95 includes the top 50 from the Official World Golf Rankings.
• Winning a record sixth green jacket, Jack Nicklaus at 46, became the oldest winner in 1986.
• The youngest champion was Tiger Woods (21 years old) in 1997.
• Since 2000, three players have won on their second attempt: Charl Schwartzel (2011), Jordan Spieth (2015), and Danny Willett (2016).
• The last wire-to-wire was Spieth, becoming just the fifth player in history to lead after all four rounds.
• Only three players ranked No. 1 in the OWGR went on to win: Tiger Woods (2007), Dustin Johnson (2020), and Scottie Scheffler (2022, 2024).
• Adam Scott is the only Australian winner.
• Hideki Matsuyama is the only Asian winner.
• In 2017, Sergio Garcia was the last winner to require a playoff.
• Mark O’Meara, aged 41 in 1998, is the oldest first-time winner.
• The field will be cut to the top 50 and ties after two rounds.

Oddsmaker’s extras

• Hideki Matsuyama (+3300): The 2021 winner continued his streak of playing the weekend to 10 consecutive starts in 2024.
• Xander Schauffele (+2000): Making six fewer starts than Matsuyama and never donning the green jacket, the Californian has pocketed almost $200,000 more than the Japanese star. One of the many who believed that the second nine in 2019 would produce a green jacket, he joined the chorus in Rae’s Creek and finished T2. The last four April events resulted in T3-MC-T10-eighth.
• Collin Morikawa (+1600): The two-time major champion never missed the weekend and joins Scheffler as the only player to cash in the top 10 in the last three tournaments. Playing in the final group with Scheffler in 2024, he earned T3, his best result in five starts.
• Will Zalatoris (+5500): One of five players since 2011 to finish second on debut, the Dallas native has never cashed outside the top 10 from three starts.
• Cameron Young (+17000): Posting 77-77 to miss the weekend on debut, the New York state native cashed T7 in 2023 and T9 in 2024.
• Ludvig Åberg (+1800): Joining Zalatoris, Spieth, Jason Day and Sungjae Im, the Swedish star played his final three rounds of his debut at 8-under and finished second in his first major championship.
• Tommy Fleetwood (+3500): After falling short on debut in 2017, the Englishman advanced to the weekend in his last seven starts. The highlight, and only top-10 payday, is T3 in 2024.
• Shane Lowry (+4000): Sharing third in 2022, the Irishman is one of 11 players in the field this week who have hit the podium in the last four years. Currently, on a streak of five consecutive weekend appearances, the former Open champion posted T-25 or better four times.
• Bryson DeChambeau (+2000): The two-time U.S. Open champion finally cracked the top 10 in his eighth start with T6 last year. I’ll point out that his opening round of 65 is his only round below 73 since Round 2 of 2021.
• Jason Day (+8000): After T2 in his 2011 debut, when healthy, the Australian owns seven top-25 paydays from 10 weekends in 13 starts.
• Phil Mickelson (+12000): The owner of three green jackets, the 53-year-old co-led the field in birdies in 2023 when he shared second. Brooks Koepka (+3000) also was second that year, his second runner-up payday in nine starts.

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