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Horses for Courses: Slate Jordan Spieth, other champions at Innisbrook for Valspar Championship

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Written by Mike Glasscott

Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida, welcomes the two-time champion Sam Burns (+2200) and a field of 155 to the Copperhead Course. Burns started his reign of terror on the west coast of Florida just north of Tampa in 2018 with T12 before picking up back-to-back victories in 2021-22. His three-peat fell short with a solo sixth the following year, and his streak of five straight-made cuts crashed and burned in 2024 with a missed cut. The all-time money leader at the Copperhead Course owns a stroke average of 69.09 and posted 17 of 22 rounds at par or better, including 14 in the 60s. Signing for 17-under-par 267, he set, then matched, the tournament scoring record since the event returned to March in 2007. Forty percent of Burns’ five TOUR wins are on this layout.

The 2024 champion Peter Malnati (+100000) cracked the code on his eighth try after missing the cut in six of his seven previous visits. The 36-year-old won for the first time in eight years on TOUR and needed every club in the bag to get over the finish line. Gaining 3.58 strokes off the tee, a career-best, set the table for an incredible week on the par 4s. Malnati set the tournament record for Par Scoring (11-under), Scoring Average (3.69), and Birdie or Better Percentage (36.11). He also matched the second-best total by a winner (3-under) at the Snake Pit and became the second consecutive champion to go bogey-free on the three-hole stretch to conclude the inward nine.

Taylor Moore (+7500), who won at Innisbrook in 2023, became the player to win for the first time on TOUR since 2017. Ranking in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Approach and SG: Putting, he navigated the rugged conditions and was the only player to post 10-under or better. Like most recent winners, he excelled on the par-4 holes and on the overseeded Poa Trivialis greens to win on only his second try. The last player to win this event on debut, Gary Woodland (+35000), is in the field this week.

SG: Copperhead Course

When the breeze blows, and it will with intent Thursday and Friday, the 7,352 yards, the exact yardage on the scorecard at TPC Sawgrass last week but playing to par 71, is more than enough to handle.

The rolling hills, oak tree doglegs and ryegrass overseed at almost four inches will give the feel of a Midwest country club rather than a tropical oasis. Five par 3s and four par 5s create the 36-35 nine-hole splits with three chances in the last six holes.

The "Snake Pit" finish is the third toughest final three holes in the ShotLink era, not including major championships. Keith Mitchell (+4000), who has never cracked the top 10 in three starts but owns paydays of T11 and T17, played the "Snake Pit" in 5-under-par last year, the best total by a player NOT to win.

SG: Approach the Green

Players listed below are competing this week (stat ranking from 2024 season).

RankPlayer
3Corey Conners
5Lucas Glover
6Xander Schauffele
8Doug Ghim
9Justin Thomas
10Kurt Kitayama
11Henrik Norlander
T12Shane Lowry
T12Keith Mitchell
16Joel Dahmen

2015 champion Jordan Spieth (+6000), the youngest ever to lift the trophy at 21, is one of eight of the last nine winners to rank inside the top 15 in SG: Approach. Only Peter Malnati (23rd) did not. The Texan has made the cut in five of seven appearances here, all resulting in T20 or better, including T3 in 2023. Falling short of the weekend in 2024, he owns 18 of 24 rounds of par or better.

The only Canadian to enter the winner’s circle, Adam Hadwin (+22000) picked up his first TOUR title in 2017 in his third attempt. Missing the weekend twice after posting T12 in defense, his last three efforts produced T7-MC-T5, and tees it up for the 10th consecutive season.

Notables

  • The course record is 61, posted twice, but neither player is entered this week (Padraig Harrington, Matt NeSmith).
  • There are seven previous champions in the field, including Luke Donald (+100000).
  • The overseeded fairways average 25 yards in the landing area, three yards tighter than TPC Sawgrass.
  • Poa trivialis overseeded greens average 5,800 square feet and will run 12 feet and up on the Stimpmeter. The Copperhead Course has one of the best one-putt percentages on TOUR.
  • Hole No. 9 is using a new tee box for 2025 and added 12 yards to the scorecard.
  • The last 10 champions have ranged in age from 21 to 41.
  • The oldest winner is Mark Calcavecchia (46 years in 2007).
  • Lucas Glover (+7000), fresh off T3 at THE PLAYERS, makes his 20th appearance, tied for the most all-time. He owns one top-10 result (T4, 2007) but was 11th last year and has made the cut in six straight.
  • The OWGR is represented by 18 of the top 50 players, including eight of the top 25.

Oddsmaker’s extras

  • Justin Thomas (+2000) owns five T18 or better paydays, including T3 in 2022 and T10 in 2023. The 15-time winner on TOUR sat one shot off the 54-hole lead in 2024 before blowing up with 79 on Saturday -one bad round from 26 attempts.
  • Tommy Fleetwood (+1100), the tournament favorite as of Wednesday morning, has posted eight rounds of par or better in eight loops. Returning for the first time since sharing third in 2023, the Englishman also collected T16 on his 2022 debut. The only two scores of 70 or 71 he posted were in the final rounds.
  • Xander Schauffele (+1200) makes his third visit and will look to add to T5 (2024) and T12 (2022). His final loop last year saw him post 65, the round of the day.
  • Webb Simpson (+22000) has played the weekend in nine of 13 visits and has accumulated four times, including a solo second in 2011. Cashing a check in his last three visits, T7 in 2023 is the best result.
  • Cameron Young (+9000) posted four rounds in the 60s last year and finished second on debut.
  • Adam Schenk (+12000), the 54-hole leader in 2023 bogeyed his last two holes to miss out on a playoff.
  • Davis Riley (+17000), the 54-hole leader in 2022 after posting 62 in Round 3, followed with T19 in 2023 before missing the weekend last year.
  • Matt Kuchar (+9000) has made the cut in 12 consecutive appearances.

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