Horses for Courses: Saddle Scottie Scheffler for TPC Sawgrass
5 Min Read
Written by Mike Glasscott
The horse for the course, Scottie Scheffler (+400), returns to TPC Sawgrass to add his name to the history books for a third consecutive season. A victory this week at THE 51st PLAYERS Championship would match Jack Nicklaus for the most wins in PLAYERS history, regardless of host course. The Texan would become the first player since Steve Stricker (2009-2011 John Deere Classic) to win three editions of a TOUR event in three consecutive seasons.
- The list of superlatives accomplished over the last two events is impressive:
- Only eight players have posted all four rounds in the 60s. Scheffler has done it twice in consecutive seasons.
- Scheffler is the only player to sign for EIGHT consecutive rounds in the 60s and his streak is alive beginning Thursday.
- Closing with 64 in 2024, he matched the lowest winning final-round score for a champion.
- Posting 20 under 268 in 2024, he owns the lowest tournament total this century at TPC Sawgrass.
- He is one of six players to win the event twice.
Scoring average: THE PLAYERS Stadium Course – TPC Sawgrass
Career scoring averages from top players entered this week (minimum eight rounds played).
Rank | Player | Rounds | Scoring Avg | Odds |
1 | Scottie Scheffler | 14 | 69.57 | +400 |
4 | Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 12 | 70.33 | +12000 |
6 | Hideki Matsuyama | 32 | 70.41 | +3300 |
8 | Xander Schauffele | 18 | 70.44 | +2500 |
9 | Aaron Rai | 8 | 70.50 | +6500 |
10 | Si Woo Kim | 29 | 70.52 | +6500 |
11 | Tommy Fleetwood | 26 | 70.62 | +3000 |
12 | Joel Dahmen | 18 | 70.67 | +20000 |
13 | Corey Conners | 18 | 70.72 | +6000 |
T14 | Min Woo Lee | 8 | 70.75 | +10000 |
16 | Justin Thomas | 33 | 70.79 | +2200 |
17 | Viktor Hovland | 14 | 70.86 | +7500 |
18 | Jason Day | 44 | 70.86 | +6500 |
20 | Sungjae Im | 18 | 70.89 | +6000 |
21 | Tom Hoge | 23 | 70.91 | +30000 |
Justin Thomas (+2200) closed with 64-68 en route to victory in 2021, matching the lowest final 36-hole total for a winner, and hit the podium for a second time in six starts. He extended his run of consecutive cuts made to eight straight seasons before falling short in 2024. Posting 24 of 33 rounds at par or better, the two-time major champion has excelled at TPC Sawgrass in both March and May editions.
The return to March in 2019 saw Rory McIlroy (+1100) lift the trophy for the first time in 10 starts. A run of four consecutive seasons in May saw him finish between T6 and T12, but he cracked the code in March. Since his victory, he has played the weekend just twice from four tries, cashing T19 in 2024 with an opening round of 65, after closing with 66 for T33 in 2022.
SG: Tee to Green
Since the event has returned to its original March roots, all five champions (four players) have ranked in the top seven in SG: Tee to Green, a key stat. To tame Pete Dye’s Par-72, playing 7,352 yards and 77 more than last year, pushing the line of attack to the edge of the danger produces the best angles to attack the putting surfaces. Handling the wind, four inches of overseeded rough, bounces off the mounds, sand, and water with the other 13 clubs before wielding the putter on the TifEagle greens is required. Finding fairways is the first test, followed by hitting greens in regulation from less-than-premium positions. Target golf!
Players listed below are competing this week.Stat ranking from 2024 season.
Rank | Player |
1 | Scottie Scheffler |
2 | Xander Schauffele |
3 | Hideki Matsuyama |
4 | Tony Finau |
5 | Justin Thomas |
6 | Rory McIlroy |
7 | Kurt Kitayama |
8 | Keith Mitchell |
9 | Aaron Rai |
10 | Corey Conners |
A champion in 2016, Jason Day (+6500) racked up T5 in the final May event and returned in 2019 with T8, his fourth-career top-10 payday. The Australian owns 44 loops around TPC Sawgrass and cashed nine times from 13 starts, including T35 or better eight times.
Si Woo Kim (+6500) became the youngest champion at 21 in May 2017. Craig Perks (2002) and Hal Sutton (1983) are the most recent winners on debut at TPC Sawgrass, but Kim needed just one previous start before he cracked the code. He cashed four times from five March starts, including T9 in 2021 and a 68-64 finish last year for T6. The Korean solved another Pete Dye mystery, winning on the Stadium Course at PGA West in 2021.
Brian Harman (+11000) owns three top-10 paydays in five starts in March. One of three players to share second in 2024, he posted 19-under, a total that would have won the other 49 PLAYERS Championships.
Coming off T6 in 2024 and solo fifth in 2023, Hideki Matsuyama (+3300) has posted 12 of his last 14 rounds at par or better. Like Harman, he is the only other player to have three top-10 paydays since the return to March. The former Masters champion has played the weekend seven times from 10 starts, and T23 in 2014 on debut is his worst finish.
Notables
- Tom Hoge is the only player to ever shoot 62 (Round 3, 2023).
- There are eight previous champions in the field, including Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler, and Matt Kuchar.
- The overseeded fairways average 28 yards in the landing areas.
- The last five winners have registered seventh or better SG: Approach the Green.
- Three of the par-5 holes play less than 575 yards.
- Nos. 15 and No. 18 are the only two on the card that were not adjusted for the 2025 tournament.
- The last five champions were 30 years old or younger.
- Since 2007, the average amount of attempts required before winning for the first time is 7.4.
- The oldest winner is Fred Funk (48 years in 2002). Funk is the only local resident to win the event.
- Sam Ryder circled 27 birdies in 2024 and established the new tournament record.
- The Official World Golf Ranking is represented by 48 of the top 50 players and 86 of the top 100.
Oddsmaker’s extras
Xander Schauffele (+2500) is one of only 10 players to finish second or T2 at TPC Sawgrass. He was four behind Simpson in 2018 on debut and missed a birdie putting 2024 to force a playoff with Scheffler. His last six rounds are 70 or better and included five loops in the 60s.
Wyndham Clark (+6000) was one of three players in the 2024 event to miss a birdie putt to force a playoff. Making his fifth start in 2024, he posted 65-65 after two rounds and missed sharing the 36-hole record by a shot. Seven of his last eight rounds are par or better, including five in the 60s.
Ludvig Åberg (+1600) joined a list of elite players in the last decade who shined the first time tackling TPC Sawgrass. The Swede took home money for solo eighth place and posted three rounds of 67 to join Schauffele, and Jordan Spieth (T4) on this prestigious ledger. He circled 15 birdies and THREE eagles against just five bogeys and a double.
Shane Lowry (+3000) needed time, like most, to figure out TPC Sawgrass. After missing the weekend in three of his first five visits, the light went on in 2021 and has not diminished. In his last 16 rounds, 13 have resulted in 72 or better. Solo eighth in 2021 was followed by T13, T35, and T19 in 2024.
Austrian Sepp Straka (+4500) missed the weekend on debut in 2021 but owns a streak of three consecutive paydays including T9 in 2022 and T16 last year.
Over the last four tournaments, Matt Fitzpatrick (+11000) has provided a wonderful all-or-nothing roller coaster ride. One of only 10 players to post four rounds in the 60s at TPC Sawgrass, he signed for 16-under and solo fifth last year after missing the weekend in 2023 and 2022. His previous top-10 result was T9 in 2021. Volatile.
In four March starts, Justin Rose(+12000) missed the weekend twice and cashed T6 in 2023 and T8 in 2019. Making his 20th tee time on Thursday, only Adam Scott (23) has more experience in the field this week.
Making his first start since the 2022 edition, Daniel Berger(+6500) deserves a mention this week. The Florida native ran T13 in 2022 after T9 in 2021.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout(+12000) is only one of a handful of players in the field to not have missed the weekend. The South African has finished T13 over the last two seasons after cashing a check of T41 on debut in 2021. He did not qualify for the 2022 event.
Corey Conners (+6000) owns T13, T26, and solo seventh results over the last four years and 13 of 18 rounds are par or better.
Denny McCarthy (+9000) has never hit the top 10 or missed out on the weekend in five events. His streak of rounds at par or better is currently eight.
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