Horses for Courses: Look to Sea Island birdie boys at The RSM Classic

The eighth and final shootout of the FedExCup Fall welcomes 156 players to a familiar Sea Island Golf Club on St. Simons Island, Georgia, to settle all final business of 2024.

Hosting The RSM Classic for the 15th consecutive season, the Seaside and Plantation Courses are the familiar finishing line before the TOUR heads to the holiday season. Upon arrival for the first time in 2023, Sweden’s Ludvig Åberg (+1000) rewrote the record books. The 24-year-old matched the PGA TOUR all-time tournament scoring record of 253 (29-under) and set the best 54-hole total with rounds of 64-61-61 to close. Winning for the first time on TOUR, he became the ninth champion (out of 14) to earn their maiden title on the Golden Isles of Georgia. The rookie only made one bogey for the week and continued the winner’s trend of posting 17-under or better.

Rounds in the 60s

Players listed are in the field this week; 2024 season stats.

The FedExCup Fall is not for the faint of heart. Low winning totals are required to win or contend, and this week is not any different from the previous seven. Seaside tips to only 7,005 yards, plays to par 70 and will be used in three of the four loops. Plantation, added in the 2015 edition, provides two additional par-5 chances, plays to par 72 and only stretches to 7,060 yards. Nobody will be left behind off the tee.

Since moving to the two-course format in 2015, eight of nine champions on St. Simons Island have posted 19-under or better. Last year, only one player in the top 12 signed for one round at 70 or worse.

Canadian Mackenzie Hughes (+3300) looks to join Robert Streb (+40000) as the only player to win this event twice. Hughes, victorious in a five-man playoff in November of 2016, cashed second last year and was runner-up in the fall of 2021. The Presidents Cup participant would have won every other RSM Classic event by three shots with his 25-under-par solo second last year. Matching the course record of 60 in Round 3 last year, the 33-year-old has four rounds of 63 or better at Sea Island Golf Club.

SG: Approach

Generous landing areas and minimal rough — two inches or less — provide the field of 156 with green-light scoring conditions. TifEagle Bermudagrass greens provide ample targets, averaging 7,200 square feet on Seaside and over 6,000 square feet at Plantation. With the field finding greens in regulation at both courses at a clip of 70 percent or better most years, knocking it to the proper place on the putting surfaces will result in the best chances for making birdies. Seven of the last nine winners have ranked 17th in Strokes Gained: Approach and T16 or better in Proximity.

The champion in 2022, Adam Svensson (+4500), is the only winner to post a round above 70. Opening with 73, the Canadian closed 64-62-64 (-20) to win by two shots at 19-under and claim his first victory on TOUR. In his defense last autumn, he continued his mastery at Sea Island Resort as he signed for four more rounds in the 60s and posted a four-round total of 19-under, good for T5. Over his last seven rounds, he’s 38-under.

Bogey Avoidance

In a shootout, the quickest way to get behind the chains is to make sloppy bogeys. The pressure to birdie every hole will increase for every square on the card. Playing to the fat side of the green, getting up and down, and lag putting are better options than dropping shots. The winner here does not always lead the field in circles on the card, but only once since 2015 has the winner ranked outside of T5 in Bogey Avoidance.

The only player to lift the trophy more than once, Streb (+40000) is the only winner from the one-course format (2014) and the two-course format (2020). Needing a playoff to clinch both wins, the 37-year-old has never been victorious anywhere else. Making his 11th start, he has played the weekend once in his last three visits.

Oddsmaker’s extras

Kevin Kisner (+30000): The first winner in the two-course format in 2015, the South Carolina native won for the first time on TOUR. Losing a playoff in 2020 to Streb, the 40-year-old has four T4 or better paydays in his part of the world.

Webb Simpson (+12500): The North Carolina native has done everything but lift the trophy at Sea Island. Twice defeated in playoffs (2011, 2019), the former U.S. Open winner also finished third in 2018 and owns five top-10 paydays from 12 starts. Despite missed cuts in the last two years, he owns 38 of 42 career rounds at 70 or better.

The 2019 champion from the strength of a second-round 61, Tyler Duncan (+20000) posted 62-65 to close for T3 in 2023. … Chris Kirk (+4000), 2013 champion, has played all 14 events and owns 42 of 46 rounds at 70 or better. … Brian Harman (+3000) shared second in 2022 and has cashed in nine of 12. … Seamus Power (+2800) did not start in 2023 but cashed T5 in 2022 and T4 in 2021, both on 15-under.

-Odds courtesy of BetMGM-

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