Horses for Courses: Defending champ Collin Morikawa poised for more ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP success

Winning by six shots in 2023, Collin Morikawa (+700) is not the tournament betting favorite at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. But he set the tournament record for the margin of victory last year at ACCORDIA GOLF Narashino Country Club in Chiba, Japan, and is once again a player to consider for more success in the limited-field event.

One of just two past champions in the field this week, the Californian is making his fifth start and owns an aggregate of 27-under after posting four of 16 rounds at 64 or better.

Cashing in the top 10 (T7 in 2021) in two of his previous three visits, the two-time major champion is the only player in the field this week with multiple top-10 results over the last three tournaments.

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green

Players listed are in the field this week; 2024 season stats.

The parkland layout at Narashino moves throughout the 7,079 yards and plays 34-36 to par 70. The tree-lined parkland layout is framed by almost four inches of Zoysia rough and features two greens on each hole. Finding fairways has proven difficult in past years, but large putting surfaces allow for recovery shots. Morikawa found only 19 of 52 fairways last year but was T3 in greens in regulation, painting 53 of 72. Tiger Woods, in the inaugual editing in 2019, was the only one of four previous champions ranked in the top 10 in fairways. All four winners have finished the week in the top three in GIR.

Par-3 Scoring

The outward nine offers three par-3 chances, while the inward nine provides two more. Four of the five short-hole opportunities play 183 yards or less and annually rank as some of the least difficult on TOUR. Tipping at 205 yards, hole No. 5 is the meatiest of the quintet. Keegan Bradley, who won here two years ago, is the only winner of four to not rank first or second in par-3 scoring average.

Hideki Matsuyama (+850) is the only player in the field to hit the podium twice in the previous four events outside Tokyo. Finishing second to Tiger Woods in the inaugural event at 16-under, the fan favorite returned the next year to sign for 15-under and lift the trophy. There have been just 24 total scores posted at double digits under par over the previous four years. Matsuyama is the only player to do this twice. Cashing T51 and T40 in his last two visits, the native son is healthy and will look to add to his two victories in 2024.

Scrambling

With only 24 players in the four previous editions producing double-digit scores to par, the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP is not a shootout. Par is a decent score, and bogeys (and others) will be lurking. The par-4 holes – 10 total on the card – provide five chances of 480 yards or longer and rank in the top half on TOUR. The three par-5 holes averaged 4.65 or worse over the last three editions, ranking in the top half of most difficult used on TOUR. There will be bogeys, but there will not be birdie chances around every corner. Getting up and down will keep the momentum going and reduce the pressure to keep up. With fairways hard to hit from the tee, inaccurate approach shots will require a deft touch around the greens.

Making his third visit, Beau Hossler (+3300) has never posted a round above 70 in eight loops. Sitting one shot off the 54-hole lead in 2023, the Californian posted 70 and shared second after cashing T16 in 2022. Circling 39 birdies over 144 holes, he also led the field in putting for the 2022 edition.

Oddsmaker’s extras

• Ryo Hisatsune (+8000): The 22-year-old is making his fourth appearance and has already cranked out results of T6, T12 and T52. In 12 rounds, he’s posted par or better nine times, including seven of his last eight loops.
• Eric Cole (+4500): Tying for second on debut, the Florida native circled 20 birdies and only needed 111 putts on unfamiliar greens.
• Sahith Theegala (+1800): Highlighted by a Round-3 63 on debut in 2022, the 2023 Procore Championship winner added T19 in his second visit last year.
• Satoshi Kodaira (+35000): The sponsor exemption, who knocked out Si Woo Kim in a playoff at Harbour Town in 2018, has cashed T12 and T16 in the last two events.

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