Horses for Courses: See challengers to undefeated Tom Kim

Korean star Tom Kim (+1200) exploded onto the scene at the 2022 Shriners Children’s Open and torched the 7,255 yards on 24-under. The 20-year-old matched the tournament scoring record of 260 and was bogey-free. The betting favorite for 2024 at the BetMGM Sportsbook returned in 2023 for his first title defense on TOUR. Carding four more rounds in the 60s and posting 20-under to win by a shot, he became the first player to defend the title at TPC Summerlin. Never posting a score worse than 68, his two winning weekends have produced a 62-66 finish each year.

Rounds in the 60s

Players listed are in the field this week; 2024 season stats.

Over the last decade, the winning score has been 20-under or better eight times, including the previous six tournaments. The par 71 plays at 2,000 feet above sea level and can be overrun by most. Providing generous fairways and perfect, oversized greens measuring 7,400 square feet on average, the desert framing the layout and seasonal wind will provide the challenges. Double-digit scores under par are the requirement. Rarely do rounds above 70 appear on the scorecards of those cashing inside the top 10. Any loops of 70 or better will require a rebuttal in the low 60s. The cut over the last three events has been 3-under, 4-under and 5-under par, respectively.

Martin Laird (+15000) joins Kim in the club of multiple winners entered at TPC Summerlin. The Scotsman won in 2009 and was defeated the following year in defense by a walk-off hole-in-one from Jonathan Byrd (not entered) in a playoff. Winning the 2020 edition in a playoff after posting 23-under, he returned in 2021 to post T11 in defense. After 54 loops, he owns 50 rounds at par or better and a 68.00 scoring average.

Putting: Birdie or Better Percentage

Apart from the quartet of par 3s, birdie chances should be prevalent. The large fairways will set up the Bentgrass targets to be inundated with approach shots, even if the wind blows. The perfect surfaces on the greens will level the gap between ball-strikers and putters. Only two winners in the last decade have ranked outside the top 10 in this category.

Adam Hadwin (+3300) has found the top 10 in four of the last five tournaments at TPC Summerlin. The runner-up in 2023 by a shot, the Canadian cashed T10 in 2022, T6 in 2021 and T4 in 2020. Making the cut in seven of eight visits, he also painted the top 10 (T10) on debut in the fall of 2014. In his 30 previous loops, he has posted in the red 26 times including his last 12 rounds and owns a 67.30 career scoring average.

Strokes Gained: Approach the Green

The expansive landing areas off the tee, 30 yards on average, should translate into plenty of attacks from the short grass in the fairways, even with the gusty conditions forecast for Thursday and Friday. Sacrificing distance for accuracy will provide the option to go flag hunting with irons. Attacking the proper levels of the putting surfaces will translate into easier putts for birdies. Over the last decade, seven of the 10 winners have ranked inside the top 10 in SG: Approach, with nine of the 10 inside the top 22. Finding putting surfaces is job No. 1, but spinning irons closer will create even more chances for circles on the card.

Matt NeSmith (+10000) broke his streak of 19 consecutive rounds in the 60s with a 71 (T42) in Round 4 of the 2023 edition. The South Carolina native also upended his streak of cashing in four straight events at TPC Summerlin at T18 or better. Runner-up to Kim in 2022, the 31-year-old, still looking for his first victory on TOUR, owns a 67.05 scoring average in the Las Vegas desert.

Oddsmaker’s extras

Taylor Pendrith (+2200): Finishing two shots behind Kim and one shot behind his countryman Hadwin, the Canadian Presidents Cup stalwart completed the podium on 18-under in 2023, his third consecutive made cut at TPC Summerlin.

Tom Hoge (+3300): Running T4 in 2022 completed a three-year run of 50-under aggregate and three appearances T24 or better. The 2024 edition saw him post 71-71 to miss the cut.

Harry Hall (+4500): Making his fourth consecutive start in his adopted hometown, the former UNLV Runnin’ Rebel is 45-under over the last three editions and has cashed T26 or better in each.

Cam Davis (+3300): The Australian has played the weekend in all five of his previous starts and has never posted a round above 71. The 2023 event saw him cash T7, his best result, and first inside the top 25.

Adam Schenk (+15000): Since 2017, the man from Indiana has played every event. Cashing five times from seven tournaments, T27 is the worst result when making the cut. The 2021 edition saw him lead after 54 holes before securing T3. Hey, everyone needs a long shot!

Other past champions in the field this week include:

• Webb Simpson (+9000)
• Ryan Moore (+17500)

-Odds courtesy of BetMGM-

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