Horses for Courses: Former winner Will Zalatoris back in heat of TPC Southwind

The FedExCup Playoffs began in 2007 and used four courses to determine the champion. Much has changed as the postseason has evolved – like the tournament hosted at TPC Southwind outside of Memphis, Tennessee.

The Ron Prichard design opened in 1988, debuted for the 1989 Federal Express St. Jude Classic, and has since hosted a PGA TOUR event annually.

The 2007 edition began a run of a decade-plus as a tune-up the week before the U.S. Open in June. The 2019 event on the same grounds evolved into a World Golf Championship event preceding the August PGA Championship. In 2022, the par 70 (7,243 yards) layout elevated to the lead-off spot for the three-event FedExCup Playoffs and is back for the third edition in 2024.

Only two of the last five champions at TPC Southwind qualified for the Playoffs this week. It's time to start digging in different directions!

SG: Approach

Players listed are in the field this week; 2024 season stats.

Tipping at 7,243 yards, the defense at TPC Southwind is some of the smallest greens complexes on TOUR. The Champion Bermuda putting surfaces, averaging only 4,300 square feet, rank third smallest on TOUR. Only 25 yards on average at their widest point, the Meyer Zoysiagrass fairways catch less than 60 percent of all tee balls. The combination of avoiding water off the tee and 3 inches of nesty and inconsistent Bermuda rough make controlling the golf ball into the greens a priority this week. Judging fliers and jumpers can be easier with a more lofted club.

All five recent winners finished 16th or better in gaining shots into the putting surfaces, while four of the five winners ranked in the top 10 in GIR, including 2022 winner Will Zalatoris (+9000), who led the field in this category. The Dallas man doesn’t mind a bit of heat and humidity and has never cashed outside of T8 from two visits. Returning to TPC Southwind for the first time since missing his defense in 2023 after back surgery, the Wake Forest alum joins Camilo Villegas (2008 BMW Championship) as the only two players to win for the first time on TOUR in the Playoffs.

Bogey Avoidance

When the summer winds pick up, the narrow landing areas become even more restricted at TPC Southwind. It’s right there in the name! Avoiding penalty areas for Bermuda or bunkers is always the prudent play. Getting up and down around the greens and keeping crooked numbers off the card matters. If fairways and greens are missed, par is a good score. The contenders on the weekend will not need to force anything with trouble around any corner. Picking and choosing the right battles never hurts.

Justin Thomas (+4000), the 2020 winner at TPC Southwind, is one of just two previous winners from the August events in the field this week. Of the last five champions, he’s the only one not to lead the field in Bogey Avoidance (T4), but he is one of just two winners who did not need a playoff. Winning by three shots at 13-under, he squared six bogeys for the week but did not have any doubles or others. Cashing T26 or better from four events at TPC Southwind with 13 of 16 rounds 70 or better, the two-time PGA Championship winner did not qualify for this event last year.

Par-4 Scoring

The par-3 and par-5 holes have played under par for the last two editions. The separation will come on the dozen par-4 opportunities. The last five champions have all finished the week ranked T3 or better in navigating the four-shotters, while none of those winners have ranked better than T4 in Par-3 or Par-5 Scoring. The fewer shots given away on the par-4 holes, the less pressure to score on the gettable chances. The requirements to hit the podium and top 15 in recent seasons necessitated double-digit scoring under par.

Rory McIlroy (+1000) is making his eighth visit to Memphis and will look to hit the top 10 for the fourth time. After missing the cut in 2022 (70-69) when the field was 121 players, he fired 65 on Sunday in 2023 and missed the Lucas Glover-Patrick Cantlay playoff by a shot. The 2021 edition saw him post 10-under for T12.

Oddsmaker’s Extras

• Billy Horschel (+4500): The Florida man is one of the very few to have multiple reps on this track over the last decade. Making his 13th start, he previously racked up five top-10 paydays and seven others T25 or better. Making his first start since falling short of the weekend in 2022, he should be excited to get back to a familiar hunting ground.
• Patrick Cantlay (+2500): Without multiple recent winners, I’ll pivot to players who lost recently in playoffs! Posting all four rounds in the 60s for the first time in five visits, the Californian closed 66-64 to force a playoff and cash his first top-10 paycheck in Tennessee.
• Sepp Straka (+6600): The Austrian played in the final group on Sunday in 2022 and lost in extra holes. Returning last season, it took him three rounds before he finally put it all together with 65 on Sunday, one shot off the best round of the day, but was a distant T63.
• Tommy Fleetwood (+2200): Making his fifth visit to Memphis, the Englishman added T3 last season to his T4 from 2019. Opening with three consecutive rounds of 66 in 2023, he sat just two shots off the 54-hole lead after skipping the 2022 event.
• Hideki Matsuyama (+2500): Like many in the field this week, the Japanese star didn’t start heading to Memphis until the World Golf Championship event was moved here in 2019. After T43 in his first start, he’s rattled off T20, P2 and T16 over his last three visits scattered across four seasons. Closing with 64-63 in 2021 to join a three-man playoff, he posted 65 in the 2023 edition to cash T16. Be patient.
• Sam Burns (+5000): The Louisiana native posted two rounds of 64 in the 2021 event, including one on Sunday to force a playoff. The results have faded to T20 in 2022 and T52 in 2023, but only two rounds are over par.
• Collin Morikawa (+1200): Posting T20 on debut in 2020, the two-time major champion added T26, T5, and T13 over the last four tournaments.
• Sungjae Im (+3300): T6 in 2023 followed solo 12th in 2022.

FedExCup Top 30 (not listed above)

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