Horses for Courses: Tony Finau seeking another top 10 in Twin Cities

The annual layover in Minnesota welcomes the PGA TOUR for the sixth consecutive year at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine.

Leading the full field of 156 players at the Par-71, 7,431-yard layout designed by Arnold Palmer is the 2022 winner and BetMGM Sportsbook favorite Tony Finau (+1000). The constant presence on the leaderboard on Sundays is making his sixth consecutive appearance and will be looking to take home his second title and fourth top-10 payday. The all-time tournament money leader, Finau has posted 19 of 20 rounds in the red and has cashed T28 or better in all five visits.

Ball-Striking

Players listed are in the field this week; 2024 season stats.

The TPC Twin Cities layout was a former sod farm and now includes prairies and wetlands. Even with 75 bunkers and 27 water penalty areas spread over 15 holes, the track ranks in the top 15 of the easiest fairways and greens to hit on TOUR. Power and accuracy off the tee result in lofted irons and wedges into the above-average (6,500 square feet) Bentgrass putting surfaces. All five winners have ranked T20 or better, and the last two ranked inside the top four.

On his way to record-setting and first on TOUR victory last year, Lee Hodges (+6000) rated T3 in Ball-Striking and ranked first in both SG: Tee to Green and converting GIR into birdies. The man from Alabama, who won on his second attempt after cashing T16 in 2022, continued the streak of champions (four straight) who finished in the top 10 of Scrambling for the week.

Scrambling

Missing the large targets off the tee and into the greens should come with a penalty. Greeted with four inches of Bluegrass and Fescue off the closely mown areas around the greens, multiple shot options are required to get up and down. The bunkers, all washed out by a September storm, have been redone, and the new, unfamiliar surface will present another challenge. Last year, the field got up and down less than 45 percent of the time from the bunkers, ranking seventh most difficult on TOUR, while ranking just sixth in Proximity from the Sand. TPC Twin Cities also ranked top 10 in Scrambling (ninth).

After missing the cut on debut in 2020, Cameron Champ (+12500) picked up his third TOUR victory here in his second start in 2021 and returned the following summer to post T16 in defense. Returning to the event for the first time since 2022, the big hitter from California bowled off the Par-3 and Par-4 holes during his victory. Champ is among five winners to rank T3 or better (T2) on the four-shot holes.

Par-4 Scoring

Interestingly, the only winner to finish in the top 10 of Par-5 scoring was Hodges last year. The highest winning score is 15-under-par, and all five winners have posted all four rounds in the 60s. With plenty of room to swing it off the tee, power players should have numbers to attack with their second shots. The large, undulating putting surfaces require spin and trajectory to get it close. On the putting surfaces, the Bentgrass greens are pure and run at a comfortable 12.5 feet, perfect for getting putts to and in the hole.

Oddsmaker’s extras

Emiliano Grillo (+5000): Only the five winners sit above the Argentine on the all-time money list. Making his fifth appearance, the former Presidents Cup player shared third on debut in 2020, ran second to Finau in 2022, and claimed his third top-10 payday (T10) last year. Half of his 14 rounds are 67 or better.

Keith Mitchell (+3000): Posting 28 under across his last two visits, the former Georgia Bulldog has cashed T5 in 2023 and shared fifth in 2021. Posting red figures in 12 of 14 trips, his current streak of rounds of 70 or better is eight.

Tom Hoge (+3000): A two-time winner of the Minnesota Amateur, the North Dakota native has cashed four times in five visits. The last two years have produced 25 under and finishes of T20 (2023) and T4 (2022).

Cam Davis (+3500): Already a winner this season in the upper Midwest at Detroit, the Australian looks to make it five consecutive finishes of T28 or better in Minnesota. Posting 16 rounds from 18 loops in red figures, his finish of T10 last year was the best of his results.

Adam Hadwin (+4500): The Canadian is one of a handful with multiple top-10 paydays at TPC Twin Cities. Be aware he cashed fourth on debut in 2019 and T6 in 2021, but his last two resulted in MC-T38.

Callum Tarren (+20000): The Englishman got his feet wet with T7 in the 2022 edition before returning last season and pocketing the cash for T13. Hey, everyone needs a long shot!

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