Horses for Courses: Matt Fitzpatrick shows way in Lowcountry

Since 1983 Harbour Town Golf Links on Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, has been the place to unwind and unpack after the Masters.

The tradition of following the first major championship has been upgraded. The RBC Heritage is now designated one of eight Signature Events on the 2024 calendar. A field of 69 contains 54 players who teed it up last week at Augusta National Golf Club.

Pete Dye designed Harbour Town Golf Links, with a little bit of help from Jack Nicklaus, in the late 1960s. Shoehorned into Sea Pines resort, the par 71 winds through the overhanging oaks and pines. Nudged out to 7,213 yards for the 2023 edition, the 2024 tournament will be the first in five years not to have any changes on the scorecard.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2500): The 2023 champion needed a playoff to knock off 2022 champion Jordan Spieth (+2800) and claim his second top-10 result in his last four starts (T4, 2021). Advancing to the weekend in five of his last six efforts, the Englishman, who vacationed here with his family as a child, has posted 20 of his previous 22 rounds at par or better. Signing for 63 in Round 3 last year and 64 in Round 2 in 2021, he is more than comfortable in the Lowcountry.

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green

Players listed are in the field this week; 2024 season stats.

The challenge provided by Pete Dye this week involves pushing the golf ball off the tee to the proper angles without being swallowed up by doglegs with overhanging branches or watery graves. The good news is shots from off the fairways will only face 1 1/4 inches of rough, down from over 2 inches last year. Attacking the second-smallest greens on TOUR also comes with the challenge of water on all 18 holes. Correctly missing in the proper places, a major theme last week, is also in play at Harbour Town. The last nine winners have ranked 11th or better, with eight registering T7 or better. Fitzpatrick became the first winner in the past three years to not lead the event in this category. He was third.

Falling short last year in a playoff to Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth (+2800) missed adding his name to the players who successfully defended at Harbour Town. Never missing a weekend, the Texan has posted five T12 or better paydays from seven starts. Playing 28 rounds, he’s posted 24 at par or better, including 11 of his last 12 in the 60s. Scrambling from the bunkers or around the greens is rewarded this week.

Scrambling

Missing tight fairways off the tee and bailing on approach shots into small, overseeded greens happen. Pete Dye’s temptation island will reward boldly struck attempts, but proper misses won’t incur penalties. For the last six seasons, Scrambling at Harbour Town has ranked in the top 10 easiest courses on TOUR. Holing out frequently happens around the greens, and one-putting is the rule rather than the exception. The last three winners have all ranked in the top six.

Patrick Cantlay (+1600) must wonder what he has done to fluster the golfing gods in the Lowcountry. Making his seventh start, the mellow Californian missed a playoff by a shot last year after falling in extra holes to Spieth in 2022. The 2021 edition (71-71; MC) was the only time he turned his rental car in early, while posting T7 in 2018 is his only paycheck outside of T3. Playing 22 rounds, he's posted red figures 18 times.

Par-4 Scoring

Target golf will test the patience and club selection off the tee. Unable to overpower the set-up with the frequent use of the driver, turning metals and irons into the tight fairways will be the disciplined approach to attack the par 4s. Paying off the patience with lofted clubs creates momentum. With the average winning score approaching 17-under over the last three editions and the cut in calm conditions resting at 2-under in two of the last three years, cashing in will be required. The only winner from the last nine to finish outside T5 in this category was Fitzpatrick (T15) last year. The man he beat in the playoff led the field in this category!

Oddsmaker’s extras

• Brian Harman (+5000): The Georgia native has cashed in four straight and 10-of-14 in his career, including T7-T35-T13 in the last three editions. Posting 15 of his last 16 rounds in the red, I’d say he’s comfortable in this part of the world.
• Cam Davis (+5000): Posting 33-under from three starts in the last three years, it seems threes are wild for the Australian. Making threes this week will help push him back into the top 10 for the third consecutive season. After posting four rounds of 70 or better for T25 on debut in 2021, he closed 67-63 for T3 in 2022 before posting four more rounds of 70 or better in 2023 for T7. Sitting on a 68.25 scoring average grabs my attention.
• Shane Lowry (+4500): The only time the Irishman has not found the weekend in six visits was the June edition of 2020. Cashing in the top 10 in three of his last five, including T3 twice, the last in 2022. The sponsor’s exemption has posted four rounds of 66 or better in his last 12.
• Emiliano Grillo (+12500): Runner-up in 2021, the Argentine missed the weekend in 2022 before returning to the top 10 (T7) last year. Signing for 20 rounds, 16 have posted in red figures.
• J.T. Poston (+6600): Making his sixth start, the North Carolina native will be the closer this week. Coming from off the pace, his last three Sundays have produced 64 in 2022 for T3, 65 from June 2020 for T8, and 66 on debut in 2019 for T6. Missing the cut on his other two visits, he posted 1-under and even to fall just short.
• Sungjae Im (+6600): Missing the cut on his first two visits, the Korean will look to continue his streak of solid results into four straight seasons. Cashing T7 last year followed T21 and T13 the previous two visits.

-Odds courtesy of BetMGM.com-

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