Horses for Courses: Sam Burns befitting of top snake charmer at Copperhead Course

The Florida Swing ends on the Gulf Coast outside Tampa, Florida, in Palm Harbor, Florida, for the Valspar Championship. The flat track and beachy feels of PGA National, Bay Hill Club & Lodge and TPC Sawgrass are replaced this week by rolling hills and oak trees.

Established in 2000, the event has only known one host venue. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort has provided the challenge annually. March tee times have been the norm since the 2007 edition. The one exception was the 2021 tournament, which was held in early May.

Sam Burns (+1100) easily sits at the top of the list this week of players who have tamed the “Snake Pit” at the Copperhead Course. Winning for the first time on TOUR in 2021, the Louisiana native proved he could also win in March the following year. Posting 17-under during each victory, he set the tournament scoring record for the spring edition. The all-time money leader at the event added solo sixth place last spring to run his streak of top-10 paydays to three. Playing the weekend in all five visits, he has posted red numbers in 15 of 20 rounds and has cashed outside T12 once.

SG: Approach the Green

Players listed are in the field this week; 2023 season stats.

Framed by oak trees, the rolling hills and unstable spring weather outside of Tampa will provide a different challenge this week. Approaching four inches, the dense ryegrass overseed rough combined with overhanging limbs will slow down the attack on hole locations. Perched greens, protected heavily by bunkers, closely mown areas, and rough will catch errant approaches not struck properly from the uneven fairway lies or clumpy rough. Hitting greens in regulation and flag hunting are the exceptions to the rules this week. In the last six seasons, the Copperhead Course has ranked in the top eight in most difficult greens to hit five times, including the third most difficult last year. Overall Proximity rankings usually place in the upper third most difficult on TOUR, while Fairway Proximity rated in the top 13 in five of the last six years. All winners since 2015 ranked 14th or better.

After cashing T7 on debut in 2013, Jordan Spieth (+1400) needed only one more rep (T20, 2014) before finding the winner’s circle at Innisbrook. The Texan started a trend of winners who needed five or fewer attempts to win at the Copperhead Course. Missing the cut in 2018, the three-time major champion returned in 2023, posted four rounds of 70 or better, and hit the podium for the second time. Making his seventh appearance, he’s taken home paychecks of T20 or better five times.

Gary Woodland (+15000), victor of the 2011 event, is the only player to win on debut since 2007.

Bogey Avoidance

Only four times since the move to March has the Valspar Championship played under par. Those four events, 2011, '12, '21 and '22, are the only times the Copperhead Course has not been rated inside the top 17 most difficult on TOUR. In nine other events, the course ranked inside the top 10, including the third-hardest non-major in 2019. There is less acreage of fairway off the tee than TPC Sawgrass. The rough is penal. Birdies and Par Breakers are few and far between on the par-71 (7,340 yards) layout. Birdies averaged less than three per round four times in the last six years, while Par Breakers have ranked in the top seven over that same period. Making up strokes on the difficult four par-5 holes isn’t guaranteed. Neither is prospering on the five par-3 holes. Toss in the “Snake Pit”, one of the most difficult three-hole stretches on TOUR, and it’s time to grind. Posting 10-under par, 2023 winner Taylor Moore (+6600) led the field as he squared just four bogeys and one double in his second appearance.

Making his fourth consecutive visit and seventh total since 2015, Justin Thomas (+1400) will look to break the streak of winners who needed five or fewer attempts. Posting 26-under over the last three years, he’s signed for 10 of 12 rounds in red figures and collected T10, T3, and T13 paychecks. Making six cuts, half have resulted in top-10 payouts.

SG: Putting

Adam Hadwin (+4500), the champion from 2017, is one of six winners to finish the week in the top 15 gaining strokes on the greens. The Canadian cashed T12 in defense before adding another top-10 payday (T7) in 2022. The other side of the loon is that he’s missed the weekend in the other three appearances.

If there’s one place to catch up, it is on and around the greens. The Poa Trivialis surfaces average almost 5,300 square feet and run a pure 12 feet on the Stimpmeter. Ranking in the top 10 of easiest tracks for Overall Putting Average, strokes can be saved on the shortest of grasses. One-putt percentages are more favorable than three-putt percentages. Plenty from distance fall. This is not the U.S. Open. It’s a difficult and fair test of golf. Recent winners Moore, Burns, Hadwin, and Spieth, in the old days, made their money on the putting surfaces.

Oddsmaker’s extras

Adam Schenk (+6600): Playing with Jordan Spieth in the final round, the Indiana native began the day alone in first place. Tied with three holes left, he held off the multiple major champion by a shot, but his bogey on the final hole missed forcing a playoff with Moore.

Matt NeSmith (+10000): After missing out on the 2023 edition, don’t forget he tied the course record in Round 2 of 2022. Also, that season he posted the 36-hole scoring record (67-61) before sharing third, one shot out of a playoff. Making his debut in 2021, the North Augusta, South Carolina, native posted four more rounds of par or better for T21. Over eight rounds, he’s never posted a score above par.

Webb Simpson (+10000): Making his 13th start, the North Carolina native secured his fourth top-10 result last season with T7 in his eighth weekend. Half of those weekends have resulted in top-10 paydays and this year’s sponsor’s exemption will look to impress again.

Davis Riley (+15000): Pipped to the title in a playoff by Burns in 2022, the Alabama man returned last season and took home money for T19. Posting those two results with finals rounds of 74 and 72 is impressive. Imagine if he figures it out on Sunday.

Kevin Streelman (+25000): The 2013 winner has played every edition since 2012 (T10). The last two visits over the last two years produced paydays of T27 last year and T7 in 2022. Everyone needs a long-shot selection.

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