Horses for Courses: Justin Thomas looking to extend consistent run of success at TPC Sawgrass

The 50th edition of THE PLAYERS Championship returns to TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, for the 42nd consecutive season. The Florida swamp that has evolved into THE PLAYERS Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass has chewed up and spit out the best players in the world for over 40 years.

Pete Dye’s ultimate creation has flummoxed the best of the best on an annual basis. Time does not heal all wounds or provide guaranteed results. The infrequency of elite players cashing in the top 10 demonstrates the difficulty of the golf course, the depth of the field and the pressure of winning the most lucrative tournament on the PGA TOUR.

Nobody has won this event more than twice. There has never been a champion successfully defending the title. Only one champion has posted a top-10 payday in defense. The recipe containing the deepest professional field in golf (no amateurs, no club pros) and unsteady spring weather conditions provides a thorough examination.

Justin Thomas (+2200) has never missed the weekend from eight visits. The 2021 champion is one of a small group of players who can brag about this fact. Teeing up as one of nine champions entered, he is one of three (of a possible four) who have won since the return to March. Posting the closing 36-hole scoring record (64-68), the two-time PGA Championship winner claimed just his second top-10 paycheck and first since T3 in 2016.

Strokes Gained: Approach the Green

Players listed are in the field this week; 2023 season stats.

Every shot requires the fullest concentration. The mental aspect is just as important as the physical traits to get the ball in the hole. Intricate driving holes armed with doglegs and tree canopies rarely provide the chance to grip it and rip it. The money will be made this week navigating approach shots. The four winners in March have ranked in the top six in this category, and three of the four ranked No. 1 in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Adjusting to the never-ending sea breeze is prevalent for every shot. With no two holes playing in the same direction, calculating the wind direction adds another challenge. All 18 holes provide water penalty areas. After two weeks in Florida with greens averaging 7,000 and 7,500 square feet on average, the overseeded Poa annua targets in week three only average 5,500 square feet. Finding the middle of the green will not lead to issues this week, especially if not playing from the difficult-to-hit fairways.

Scottie Scheffler (+550) broke through on just his third attempt. After missing the cut on debut and posting T55 in 2022, he roared to the winner’s circle last year. Blowing away the field by five shots, the largest margin of victory since 2006, the Texan posted all four rounds in the 60s. Not surprisingly, it was his fantastic tee-to-green game that provided the separation. Leading the field in GIR, Ball-Striking, SG: Tee-to-Green and Bogey Avoidance, nobody was worried about his putting stats.

Par-5 Scoring

Ranking in the middle of the pack annually, the par-5 holes, if navigated properly, can provide relief on the scorecard. Evenly split across the front and back, only one of the four stretches past 558 yards. The major change for the 2023 edition featured adding yardage to No. 9 and making it the first 600-yard hole at TPC Sawgrass. The only guarantee this week is the players will earn everything.

The beauty of Pete Dye’s beast has found Rory McIlroy (+1400) scratching his head. The par-72 layout, playing 7,275 yards for the second consecutive season, appears to be a course the four-time major champion should run over annually. Instead, he’s made only seven cuts from 13 appearances. Posting four top-10 paydays, tied for the most in the field this season, the Ulsterman won the 2019 edition, the first in March since 2006, but has missed the weekend in two of the last three.

Scrambling

Missing the targets off the tee and into the greens will bring short-game creativity, nerves, and execution into the equation. Players able to navigate bunkers, waste areas, mounds, closely mown areas, and hollows will keep the big numbers off the card. Escaping from the proper misses by getting up and down can keep the mind stable and the momentum rolling. Dye will test every club in the bag and the space between the ears.

Jason Day (+5000) matches McIlroy with the most top-10 finishes (4) and a victory, although his title was in May of 2016. Finishing T19 or better six times in eight weekends, the Australian produced in March (T19, 2023, T8 2019) and May.

Playing for the fourth time in March, Hideki Matsuyama (+2800) looks to add to his haul of recent top-10 paychecks. Closing 66-67 in the 2019 edition, he cashed T8. After missing the 2022 edition, he returned last season, posted 67-68 on the weekend and secured solo fifth place. All six of his weekend results have produced T23 or better. The next step is onto the podium.

Oddsmaker’s Extras

Viktor Hovland (+2500): After missing the cut in his first visit in 2021, the Norwegian star produced seven rounds of 71 or better in his last eight loops. Sitting at five consecutive rounds of 71 or better, he’s cashed T3 and T9 over the last two editions.

Max Homa (+2800): Making his fourth start, he doesn’t have any May memories or nightmares taking up space above the ears. Cashing T6 and T13 over the last two editions suggests he’s a quick study.

Brian Harman (+5000): Never missing the cut since the return to March, the Georgia native has 11 previous experiences to draw knowledge. Matching his best payday from 2015 with T8 in 2019, he hit the podium (T3) two shots behind Thomas in 2021.

Justin Rose (+15000): The veteran Englishman makes his 19th start this week. Before the return to March, he produced one top-10 payday from 15 starts. In three events in March, he cashed T8 in 2019 and added T6 last year. From 10 rounds, he’s signed for rounds in the 60s six times.

Tommy Fleetwood (+5000): Cashing in four of his last five visits, the Englishman racked up a top-10 in both the May and March editions. Never finishing worse than T27 in three weekends from four March trips, he posted 65 in Round 3 last year and 66 in Round 1 in 2022.

Keegan Bradley (+8000): The last five editions have produced T29 or better in four straight events before missing the cut last season. Highlighted by solo fifth in 2022 and T7 in 2018, he’s produced 14 of his last 18 rounds at par or better.

Tom Hoge (+6600): Joining Thomas and Hovland in the never-missed-the-cut club, the North Dakota native has played all five weekends. Setting the course record of 62 last year in Round 3, he secured his first top-10 payday.

Shane Lowry (+3300): The Irishman opened with 77 last year but rallied to cash for the third consecutive season. Cashing solo eighth place in 2021, he added T13 in 2022 before T35 last year.

Here’s a look at the top 30 in the world, and how they’ve fared at this event historically:

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