With a new season comes a new evolution for Expert Picks. Below are picks and analysis for both betting and fantasy, as fans have a new version of the PGA TOUR Fantasy Game presented by PGA TOUR Superstore for 2025. Each week our panel of experts will offer picks and analysis for the fantasy game, including insight on who will captain their roster for extra points. Users can submit their rosters via PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, with the current segment running through the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard.

Our Golfbet experts will also share betting picks, both for the outright winner of the tournament and which prop markets have caught their eye.

How it works: Each week, our experts from PGATOUR.COM will make their selections in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore. Each lineup consists of four starters, including a captain, and two bench players that can be rotated after each round. Adding to the challenge is that every golfer can be used only three times per each of four segments.

Aside from the expert insight below, Golfbet's Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field in this week's Power Rankings and offers Fantasy-specific advice in this week's Fantasy Insider.

Betting picks

WILL GRAY (Lead, Fantasy & Betting)

Winners

• Justin Lower (+7500): Lower went on a tear last fall in search of his first win, and he contended at both Mexico stops in 2024 including a T3 finish at VidantaWorld. Also contended last month at The American Express and this feels like a stage where he could break through.
• Aldrich Potgieter (+7000): One of the most intriguing players on TOUR with driver in hand. Trailing only Rory McIlroy in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee this season, Potgieter won last year on the Korn Ferry Tour and will take full advantage of the wide fairways in play this week.

Props

• Stephan Jaeger, Top 10 (+300): Jaeger won for the first time on TOUR last spring and was T3 here a year ago just before that. He’s since added a pair of top-three finishes in his last seven starts, including last month in Hawaii.
• Chris Gotterup, Top 20 (+320): Gotterup has been feast or famine since his win last year in Myrtle Beach, but this is the type of course that should suit his strengths off the tee.

BEN EVERILL (Senior writer, Fantasy & Betting)

Winners

• Alex Smalley (+4000): Got a taste of contention recently at the WM Phoenix Open and while he retreated on the weekend, he will be much better for the experience. Drives it long enough and was T6 at VidantaWorld on debut. Currently third in SG: Total and seventh SG: Tee-to-Green.
• Jake Knapp (+4500): We are getting the defending champion at similar odds to last year and just as he’s finding some form once again with a T17 last week at Torrey Pines. It was his form from Torrey (Farmers Insurance Open) in 2024 that helped Knapp catapult to a win. Ranks 19th on TOUR in relation to par on approaches outside 200 yards, a big factor this week. His driver has been wayward lately, but still long. Less danger lurks in Mexico than other TOUR stops.

Props

• Rasmus Højgaard and Nicolai Højgaard, Top 20 (including ties) parlay (+466): The reality is, I don’t mind both twins as contenders this week so let’s have some fun and say they both have a nice week! Rasmus was a serious contender in Phoenix before sliding to T12 and he’s eighth in relation to par from outside 200 yards and 11th in Driving Distance. Nicolai showed glimpses in Phoenix also and will be spurred on by what his Ryder Cup teammate Ludvig Åberg just produced.
• Patrick Rodgers, Top 10 (including ties) (+225): Rodgers has the talent to win but seemingly has lacked the killer instinct when it counts having now notched up eight TOUR top threes, without winning. I hope he defies that narrative and wins soon but I’m not about to bet on it. Instead, I’ll advocate that he parlays his T3 week at Torrey Pines and his three previous top 10s at VidantaWorld, into another.

CHRIS BREECE (Senior content manager, Golfbet)

Winners

• Alex Smalley (+4000): I’m leaning heavily on the statistics at a place like VidantaWorld. A player who continually gives himself excellent looks at birdie will win. Smalley is third in SG: Tee-to-Green and seventh in SG: Total in 2025. He’s also shown he can content, with an 11th and a T21 recently.
• Nicolai Højgaard (+5000): I think one reason these odds are so high is because we have seen Højgaard on the PGA TOUR once this season (T36 in Scottsdale). Now he comes to a course where birdie chances will be everywhere. Any time you get a number like this for a player with this kind of talent against this field, you need to give it a serious look.

Props

• Aaron Rai, Top 20 (+150): It’s been a slower start to 2025 for Rai, but I think a decent performance at The Genesis Invitational (T37) sets up for a good week. He was top 10 on TOUR last year in SG: Tee-to-Green. If we see more of that this week he’ll easily be inside the top 20.
• Jake Knapp, Top 20 (+210): He hasn’t been able to put it all together for four rounds yet this year, but Knapp is showing signs of solid play. His opening rounds at Pebble Beach and TPC Scottsdale are proof. I think the good vibes from last year’s win will help him.

CASEY JOHNSTON (Senior content manager, Golfbet)

Winners

• Patrick Rodgers (+2200): Three top 10s in three starts here and riding the hot hand from last week at Torrey Pines. It seemed like something clicked mentally last week for Rodgers as well, and I see that carrying over to Mexico.
• Patrick Fishburn (+6000): Taking a shot with Fishburn here in my debut. He hits the ball a mile which works great for Mexico, and is gaining strokes on the greens this year. Finished T6 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, give me Fishburn for his first TOUR win.

Props

• Will Chandler, Top 10 (+1600): I'll take the man who beat Scottie Scheffler by six while paired together on his first PGA TOUR Sunday at the WM Phoenix Open. His experience in Phoenix should help his mental game and confidence in his fourth TOUR start.
• Aaron Rai, Top European (+900): Finished T15 in a stacked field at The Sentry and has two top 25s in Mexico. I think the Englishman delivers another strong performance at VidantaWorld

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