Expert Picks: Valero Texas Open

With a new season comes a new evolution for PGA TOUR Expert Picks. Fans of PGA TOUR betting can now see tips and picks for specific markets that the Golfbet team will be riding with each week. The traditional format for lineups and rosters will remain with Experts looking to come out on top in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf.

How it works: Each week, our experts from PGATOUR.COM will make their selections in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Each lineup consists of four starters and two bench players that can be rotated after each round. Adding to the challenge is that every golfer can be used only three times per each of four Segments.

Aside from the experts below, Golfbet Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field at the Valero Texas Open in this week's edition of Power Rankings.

Betting picks

WILL GRAY (Lead, Fantasy & Betting)

• Winner: Billy Horschel (+3300) – The former Gator is heating up. Horschel rallied for a top-10 result in Houston, his third top-12 in his last four starts, and his Valero history includes three previous top-five finishes.
• Longshot: Kevin Yu (+12500) – He’s been feast-or-famine this year, mixing missed cuts and unexpected top-10s. Here’s hoping he leans more toward the latter this week on a course that should emphasize his ball-striking skills.
• Top 10: Corey Conners (+225) – Does he have a key to the city yet? If not it might be in the mail. The two-time champ is a great fit for a difficult track, and his 2024 results have been solid enoughto believe he’ll be in the mix.
• Head-to-Head (H2H): Aaron Rai (-110) over Beau Hossler – The “Fade Beau” operation continues, as I’ve (profitably) opposed Hossler each of the last two weeks and it’s the only area where I’m not bleeding units. Give me Rai, who enters off a top-10 in Houston and has a pair of top-30s here over the last two years.

BEN EVERILL (Senior writer, Fantasy & Betting)

• Winner: Byeong Hun An (+3300) – Three top 21s in his last four starts. Two top-10s in his last three Valero Texas Open starts. Sits 25th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, second in birdie average, and has great proximity from outside 250 yards. Just need to hope his focus doesn’t wander to next week early.
• Longshot: Ryan Moore (+12500) – This veteran has three Valero top-10s and a recent T5 at the Valspar Championship. Ranks fourth on TOUR in SG: Approach and 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Only his putter is holding him back.
• Top 10: Corey Conners (+225) – The defending champion has the perfect game for this place as evidenced by his multiple wins. I’ll take a conservative finish this season despite the fact another win would not be a shock.
• H2H: Corey Conners (-120) over Collin Morikawa – Conners is a collector of cowboy boots at this event, winning twice. Morikawa has been below his best this season.

CHRIS BREECE (Senior Content Manager Golfbet)

• Winner: Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800) – It feels like we keep waiting for him to have a big week. 2024 has been all over the map, but I’m hoping his top five at THE PLAYERS lit a spark.
• Top 10: Hideki Matsuyama (+200) – His worst finish in his last four events is T22. I like the fact he’s rested after THE PLAYERS.
• Longshot: Erik van Rooyen (+6600) – Two top 10s in his last four starts.
• H2H: Aaron Rai (-110) over Beau Hossler – Rai played well last week. He has three top-25s in his last five starts.

MATT DELVECCHIO (Social content manager, Fantasy & Betting)

• Winner: Keith Mitchell (+5500) – Mitchell seems like he has a win right around the corner. T20 in five out of 10 starts this year with most notably his stumble on Sunday at the Valspar. His game is ready to win especially at TPC San Antonio, ranking 10th in SG: Approach and first in Ball Striking on the year.
• Longshot: Erik van Rooyen (+6600) – Probably the hottest golfer in the world between Vidanta and Bay Hill, I’m expecting van Rooyen to break through soon this season. He makes birdies in bunches (19th in birdie or better percentage) and avoids the bad numbers (17th in bogey avoidance). Two attributes that should do him well this week in Texas.
• Top 10: Rory Mcilroy (+120) – Chalking the top 10 this week because I think Rory is in fantastic form and will do well this week as he gets ready for his chase at the Green Jacket. I don’t think he wins but still has a great week resulting in a high finish.
• H2H: Corey Conners (-120) vs Morikawa – Corey checks all the boxes this week. Morikawa’s game has been a work in progress so far in 2024.

Odds were sourced on Tuesday, April 2. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

Want to see how to set up your PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf lineup? Scroll below.

THINK YOU'RE BETTER THAN OUR EXPERTS? The PGA TOUR Experts league is once again open to the public. You can play our free fantasy game and see how you measure up against our experts below.

Joining the league is simple. Just click here to sign up or log in. Once you create a team, click the "LEAGUES" tab. Then click on "FEATURED," and then on the PGA TOUR Experts league that populates.

RESULTS

*Brett Jungles joined the Expert Picks league at the beginning of Segment 1 and did not accumulate any points from the FedExCup Fall.

Golfbet experts longshot: 0-13

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.