Expert Picks: Valspar Championship

With a new season comes a new evolution for PGA TOUR Expert Picks. Fans of PGA TOUR betting can now see tips and picks for specific markets that the Golfbet team will be riding with each week. The traditional format for lineups and rosters will remain with Experts looking to come out on top in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf.

How it works: Each week, our experts from PGATOUR.COM will make their selections in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Each lineup consists of four starters and two bench players that can be rotated after each round. Adding to the challenge is that every golfer can be used only three times per each of four Segments.

Aside from the experts below, Golfbet Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field at the Valspar Championship in this week's edition of Power Rankings.

Betting picks

WILL GRAY (Lead, Fantasy & Betting)

• Winner: Keegan Bradley (+4000) – Going back to the well with Bradley, one of my picks at Bay Hill who always starts quickly at Innisbrook Resort. Should’ve won here in 2021.
• Longshot: Kevin Yu (+10000) – Consistently strong off the tee this year, which you need at Innisbrook. When the other parts of the game have clicked, it’s netted him top-10 results.
• Top 10: Doug Ghim (+400) – He’s still in search of his first TOUR win but has cobbled together five straight top-20 finishes, including a T16 result last week at TPC Sawgrass.
• Head-to-Head (H2H): Adam Hadwin (-110) over Beau Hossler – The former Valspar champ should rebound from last week’s club toss/missed cut. This is more of a fade of Hossler, who has missed the cut in four of five trips to Innisbrook.

BEN EVERILL (Senior writer, Fantasy & Betting)

• Winner: Sam Burns (+1100) – If you only get one winner option Burns is the man to take at Innisbrook until he proves otherwise. Two wins and a T6 last three years here and showed glimpses of great at TPC Sawgrass.
• Top 10: Nick Taylor (+300) – I went close to plumping for Taylor as my outright but let’s just pick up some quick units here instead. T10 last year and one of the best putters on TOUR this season so far.
• Longshot: Adam Schenk (+6600) – Runner-up here last time out he certainly knows how to get around this joint. Finally showed some recent form with a top-20 last week at TPC Sawgrass.
• H2H: Doug Ghim (-140) over Sepp Straka – I was hoping Ghim would fit into the longshot bracket but at +4000 he’s under that mark (but still worth an outright look). No worse than T16 his last five starts… he’s potentially building to something big.

CHRIS BREECE (Senior Content Manager, Golfbet)

• Winner: Sam Burns (+1100) – I’m not going to overthink this. Way too good here every here. He’s been trending upwards. A few bad holes derailed him from being in contention at THE PLAYERS.
• Top 10: Nick Taylor (+300) – He’s been in the mix almost every week in 2024, including Thursday/Friday at TPC Sawgrass. He was T10 here last here.
• Longshot: Matt NeSmith (+10000) – His two finishes here have been T3/T21. Had two good rounds at TPC Sawgrass last week for a T26.
• H2H: Justin Thomas (-125) over Brian Harman – I’m banking on the mental exhaustion from Harman after a close call last week.

MATT DELVECCHIO (Social Content Manager, Fantasy & Betting)

• Winner: Nick Taylor (+3500) – There’s so much to like about Taylor and his game so far this year. Was in the mix for a bit at THE PLAYERS. Nothing worse than a T39 finish since his playoff win at the WM Phoenix Open. Combo that with the fact that he likes Innisbrook (T10 last year), it seems to me all signs pointing in the right direction for Taylor.
• Top 10: Brian Harman (+200) – He’s been putting up some really low numbers lately and I see no reason to think that will stop this week. T5 here in 2022. I considered Harman for outright as he looks like he’s ready to win but I’ll settle for a safer pick with a top-10 finish.
• Longshot: Brendon Todd (+6600) – Todd has been very hit or miss this season. He has the game that I think will allow him to maneuver around Innisbrook and get him within striking distance for a run at the win come Sunday.
• H2H: Nick Taylor (-120) over Eric Cole – Going back to the well with the double down on one player. Taylor aside, Eric Cole’s game has been in a bad place as of late, with two missed cuts in his last four events. With that being said he’s also a boom or bust candiate (T21 at Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, T10 at The Genesis Invitational). I’ll bet on the bust this week.

Odds were sourced on Tuesday, March 19. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

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RESULTS

*Brett Jungles joined the Expert Picks league at the beginning of Segment 1 and did not accumulate any points from the FedExCup Fall.

Golfbet experts longshot: 0-11

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