Expert Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

With a new season comes a new evolution for PGA TOUR Expert Picks. Fans of PGA TOUR betting can now see tips and picks for specific markets that the Golfbet team will be riding with each week. The traditional format for lineups and rosters will remain with Experts looking to come out on top in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf.

How it works: Each week, our experts from PGATOUR.COM will make their selections in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Each lineup consists of four starters and two bench players that can be rotated after each round. Adding to the challenge is that every golfer can be used only three times per each of four Segments.

Aside from the experts below, Golfbet Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in this week's edition of Power Rankings.

Betting picks

WILL GRAY (Lead, Fantasy & Betting)

• Winner: Winner: Max Homa (+2200) – This is an eye-catching price for a limited-field event, especially on a track where Homa has finished T17 or better each of the last three years.
• Top 10: Chris Kirk (+375)– In his last 10 starts at Bay Hill, Kirk has finished T16 or better six times. Expect The Sentry winner to contend again on a course that suits his style.
• Longshot: Keegan Bradley (+5500) – For a New Englander, he sure does like this track. He’s never missed the cut here in 11 starts and finished T11 or better each of the last three years in Orlando.
• Head-to-Head (H2H): Viktor Hovland (-110) over Xander Schauffele – I still believe Hovland’s (relative) swoon will be short-lived, and it could end this week on a course where he’s had back-to-back top-10 finishes.

BEN EVERILL (Senior writer, Fantasy & Betting)

•  Winner: Jason Day (+3300) – He’s been threatening to join the winner's circle again recently and there’s arguably no better place for him to do it than here where he’s a proven winner.
• Top 10: Matt Fitzpatrick (+240)– Fitzpatrick always plays well when pars mean something extra and he’s almost destined to eventually win at Bay Hill so I’ll take this conservative approach with confidence.
• Longshot: Corey Conners (+5000)– Traditionally a ball striker's venue so when reaching for a longshot why not look at a proven striker of the golf ball?
• H2H: Jason Day (+105) over Tommy Fleetwood - Given I’m taking my Aussie mate to beat the field it stands to reason I’m salivating at the plus money on offer for him to beat one player.
• Bonus Pick Puerto Rico Open Winner: Ryo Hisatsune (+2200) – It’s been a pretty decent start for the DP World Tour graduates and I expect this continues for this Japanese star.

CHRIS BREECE (Senior Content Manager, Golfbet)

• Winner: Rory McIlroy (+900) – I would argue there is not a better course on TOUR for McIlroy than Bay Hill. In nine starts here he’s gone (most recent first) T2, T13, T10, T5, T6, 1, T4, T27, T11
• Top 10: Cameron Young (+220) – I’m going to keep picking him until he does something for me. He’s been one of the most consistent high finishers this year and he’s gaining 1.8 strokes on the field per round at Bay Hill.
• Longshot: Jake Knapp (+5000) – I know, it’s right on the border- but who else do you feel good about right now that’s a better/smarter play here?
• H2H: Patrick Cantlay (-130) over Sam Burns– Here’s the thing. Cantlay has been playing pretty well. He just can’t close. All he needs to do is close out one player.
• Bonus Pick for Puerto Rico Open Winner: Victor Perez (+4000)– Flashes of brilliance last week at PGA National with rounds of 67-66.

MATT DELVECCHIO (Social Content Manager, Fantasy & Betting)

• Winner: Sam Burns (+2200) – So close he can almost taste it. Coming in with four straight T10s, I would be shocked with anything less than that this week. One of the hottest players on TOUR this season, but the game-changer for him this week will be his putting. The last five winners averaged 12th in putts gained. Burns comes in 14th for the year in Strokes Gained: Putting and finished last season at 8th.
• Top 10: Erik van Rooyen (+450)– The field is stacked this week, but I can’t ignore how amazing van Rooyen has looked on TOUR this past month. The number is insanely juicy I just had to take it. The icing on the cake was a win in the net portion of the Seminole Pro-Member on Monday after already going 8-under and grabbing a T2 at PGA National the day prior.
• Longshot: Matthieu Pavon (+8000) – 2nd in SG: Approach, 2nd SG: Putting, 13th in bogey avoidance and 30th in Scrambling. No further explanation is needed, this man has been a machine.
• H2H: Jason Day over Tommy Fleetwood (+105) – Day is another guy coming into the week playing some fantastic golf (solo 9th and T6 in his last two starts). Combo that with his great history at Bay Hill, we may see Day high up on the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.
• Bonus Pick for Puerto Rico Open Winner: Ben Silverman (+3300): The 36-year-old Canadian continues to impress with a T13 in Mexico and a T16 at PGA National.

Odds were sourced on Tuesday, March 5. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

Want to see how to set up your PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf lineup? Scroll below.

THINK YOU'RE BETTER THAN OUR EXPERTS? The PGA TOUR Experts league is once again open to the public. You can play our free fantasy game and see how you measure up against our experts below.

Joining the league is simple. Just click here to sign up or log in. Once you create a team, click the "LEAGUES" tab. Then click on "FEATURED," and then on the PGA TOUR Experts league that populates.

RESULTS

*Brett Jungles joined the Expert Picks league at the beginning of Segment 1 and did not accumulate any points from the FedExCup Fall.

Golfbet experts longshot: 0-9

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.