Expert Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

With a new season comes a new evolution for PGA TOUR Expert Picks. Fans of PGA TOUR betting can now see tips and picks for specific markets that the Golfbet team will be riding with each week. The traditional format for lineups and rosters will remain with Experts looking to come out on top in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf.

How it works: Each week, our experts from PGATOUR.COM will make their selections in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Each lineup consists of four starters and two bench players that can be rotated after each round. Adding to the challenge is that every golfer can be used only three times per each of four Segments.

Aside from the experts below, Golfbet Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in this week's edition of Power Rankings.

Betting picks

WILL GRAY (Lead, Fantasy & Betting)

• Winner: Patrick Cantlay (+2000) – Once more into the fray. Cantlay’s Sunday woes the last two weeks could be symptomatic of a larger problem, or they could be creating some additional value on a player who has finished T11 or better in each of his last three trips to Pebble Beach.
• Top 10: Tommy Fleetwood (+260) – The forecast indicates it might feel a bit like The Open this week at Pebble. I like backing an “all kinds of weather” player like Fleetwood, who won on the DP World Tour earlier this month.
• Longshot: Denny McCarthy (+6600) – I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t get a breakthrough win in 2024. One of the best putters on TOUR has tamed the Pebble surfaces in recent years, with two straight top-12 finishes here.
• Head-to-Head (H2H): Viktor Hovland (-110) over Xander Schauffele – Schauffele has the recent form, but I’ll take the guy who knows how to solve Pebble Beach. Former U.S. Amateur champ here and low amateur at the 2019 U.S. Open, Hovland will still be able to get it done if the weather gets interesting.

BEN EVERILL (Senior Writer, Fantasy & Betting)

• Winner: Patrick Cantlay (+2000) – Given his last three starts in this event have been T11 or better and he was ranked third on TOUR last season in Par 4 Scoring and second on TOUR in Birdies or Better inside 125 yards… he’s my man this week.
• Top 10: Jason Day (+275) – Call me crazy after the missed cut burned me last week but Day has eight top 10s at Pebble and will be stinging to atone for his flop at Torrey Pines.
• Longshot: Brendon Todd (+9000) – A runner-up last year and a T16 the year before this putting guru could surprise again. Todd was also 10th on TOUR last season in Proximity and sixth on TOUR in Birdies or Better inside 125 yards.
• H2H: Matt Fitzpatrick (-125) over Cameron Young – In the cold, wet conditions and a possible grind on the weekend if the TOUR sets tougher pins when the amateurs are gone, the former U.S. Open champ could be in his element.

CHRIS BREECE (Senior Content Manager, Golfbet)

• Winner: Collin Morikawa (+2000) – I’m banking on our Golfbet Key Stats this week of G.I.R and Proximity and leaning on Morikawa’s irons here. He doesn’t have a Pebble history, but I’ll go with his general California history.
• Top 10: Denny McCarthy (+400) – He’s gaining more than two strokes per round on the field at this event the last five years. Only four players have been better.
• Longshot: Taylor Moore (+15000) – He’s also gaining more than two strokes on the field per round here. Don’t these odds feel like the last four weeks of longshot winners?
• H2H: Rory McIlroy (-105) over Scottie Scheffler – He’s been staying in form on the DP World Tour.

MATT DELVECCHIO (Social Content Manager, Fantasy & Betting)

• Winner: Patrick Cantlay (+2000) – A lot of value at this number for a guy of his caliber. Not a super impressive start to the year but hes getting reps in with back-to-back starts. I’ll take the bounce back week for a top player who loves Pebble.
• Top 10: Tommy Fleetwood (+260) – Taking a leap of faith on a guy without course history. With that being said he's in great form over in Europe and with the weather looking like it is, this seems like an ideal spot for a hot Fleetwood.
• Longshot: Brendon Todd (+9000) – Flying under the radar this year with solid finishes (T33-T30 in the Hawaii swing). Todd comes back to a venue he’s had recent success at (T2 last year, T16 in 2022). His good putting and amazing scrambling may come up big if condiitons pick up.
• H2H: Matt Fitzpatrick over Cameron Young (-125) – I can’t really tell if Fitzpatrick likes Pebble or not (T6 in 2022, MC last year) but I’m going to trust he’ll play well this week. Haven’t seen Young since The Sentry where he finished T33.

Odds were sourced on Tuesday, Jan. 30, at 11 a.m. ET. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

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RESULTS

*Brett Jungles joined the Expert Picks league at the beginning of Segment 1 and did not accumulate any points from the FedExCup Fall.

Golfbet experts longshot: 0-4