Mar 1, 2025

Draws and Fades: Russell Henley primed for comeback at Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

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Written by Will Gray

Now that the shine has faded from Jake Knapp’s course-record 59 and the unexpected low scoring in the opening round, a tight race has broken out at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches.

Knapp remains the man to beat, posting a 13-under total through 36 holes, but he’s just one shot ahead of Matthieu Pavon and two clear of a group that includes former playoff runner-up Daniel Berger.

Updated odds to win the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

  • +450: Jake Knapp
  • +600: Daniel Berger
  • +1000: Michael Kim
  • +1100: Matthieu Pavon
  • +1400: Doug Ghim, Jesper Svensson, Rickie Fowler
  • +1800: Russell Henley
  • +2500: Luke Clanton (a), Ben Griffin

Knapp had a chance to run away and hide from the field at PGA National, but his 1-under 70 let several players back into the mix – notably including a former winner on the Champion Course.

Here’s a look at how I’d assess the betting options at the halfway mark in Palm Beach Gardens:

Draws

Russell Henley (+1800)

I’m buying Henley in this spot, as he sits four shots behind Knapp 11 years after emerging from a four-man playoff at this event with the trophy. Henley would have been higher up the board were it not for an unusually chilly putter, as he ranked 133rd in Strokes Gained: Putting during a second-round 70. But that’s the sort of metric that is prone to turn around for the Georgia product, who has plenty of familiarity putting on these Bermuda greens in South Florida. Henley flashed plenty of form with an opening 63, and this feels like a buy opportunity on a player who’s clearly in contention heading into the weekend but not far off his pre-tournament price.

Daniel Berger (+600)

Might this be the time that the South Florida product gets it done in his backyard? Berger was an unknown rising star in 2015 when he lost here to Padraig Harrington in a Monday playoff, and after another close call here a couple years ago when he coughed up a late lead, he’s in great position to chase down Knapp over the weekend and put a stamp on his post-injury comeback efforts. He has made just one bogey through 36 holes, is third in Proximity and 10th in SG: Putting despite losing strokes to the field on Friday. There’s a lot to like with the veteran, not the least of which is that he has gotten to the winner’s circle on TOUR more frequently than many of the other contenders.

Fades

Jake Knapp (+450)

This was his opportunity to run and hide from the field, but Knapp let his foot off the gas. Some woeful ball-striking made the difference, as Knapp went from leading the field in SG: Approach to ranking 120th in the same category while losing -1.4 strokes to the field. That high-variance performance won’t get it done at PGA National, and I’d look elsewhere at the top of the board – particularly to Berger among the top two betting favorites. Knapp showed on Thursday just how easy he can make the game look, but as Aldrich Potgieter showed last week in Mexico it’s sometimes hard to run the entire race from the pole position.

Doug Ghim (+1400)

Ghim and Knapp have put together polar opposite performances, as Ghim struggled tee-to-green on Thursday and suddenly figured everything out a day later. His 8-under 63 paced the field in Proximity, SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green. It’s hard to do any better, but it’s also a performance that’s hard to replicate for a player who ranks 142nd in SG: Total this season. Ghim remains in search of his first TOUR win, and there’s a bit too much recency bias baked into this price following a single impressive round.

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