Draws and Fades: Side with Collin Morikawa over leader Hideki Matsuyama at The Sentry

There’s a chance that, while you read this, the top two players at The Sentry just rolled in another birdie or five.

Hideki Matsuyama and Collin Morikawa put on a clinic Saturday at The Plantation Course at Kapalua, firing matching rounds of 11-under 62 amid calm conditions in Maui. With the course’s main (breezy) defense rendered non-existent, it was a banner day for low scores: Sungjae Im, like Matsuyama and Morikawa, tied the course record on the par-73 layout, while Max Greyserman and Christiaan Bezuidenhout both shot rounds of 10-under 63.

But it’s Matsuyama and Morikawa who have distanced from the pack, playing together in the day’s final group and combining for 20 birdies and an eagle without dropping a shot.

As a result, Matsuyama holds a narrow one-shot lead, having tied the PGA TOUR scoring record to par with a 27-under total through 54 holes. Morikawa is one shot back, while Thomas Detry sits alone in third at 22-under, five behind Matsuyama.

While there were moments where it seemed Detry and Im would both get within reach of the two leaders, it’s now shaping up as a two-man race in the eyes of oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook who give the former Masters champ a slight edge:

Updated odds to win The Sentry (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• -150: Hideki Matsuyama (-27)
• +130: Collin Morikawa (-26)
• +5000: Thomas Detry (-22)
• +5500: Sungjae Im (-21)

Outside of those four, only Harry Hall (+30000) is listed shorter than 500-to-1 entering the final round. So even amid a limited, 59-man field, the outright options have thinned considerably from the start of the week.

Of the (smaller) chase pack, Detry has an edge in that he’ll have the final spot alongside the leaders in the final group on Sunday. But Im is no stranger to going low at Kapalua, having set a 72-hole birdie record here just a year ago. Still, even on a course where Morikawa floundered as a leader two years ago and where Chris Kirk cashed some longshot tickets last year, it’s tough to envision both Morikawa and Matsuyama coming back to the pack. If you’re looking for a flier, though, I’ll lean toward Im (+5500): he’s only one shot further back than Detry, and it’s tough to see the Belgian getting TOUR win No. 1 in these circumstances.

But what about the top two? It’s hard to fault either Matsuyama or Morikawa after a performance that tied the course record. Morikawa famously coughed this title up two years ago down the stretch, so there’s some undeniable scar tissue, but he has also finished inside the top 10 every time he has teed it up in Maui. This year will certainly extend that streak.

Morikawa is also on a ball-striking mission, having hit 52 of 54 greens in regulation. On the largest putting surfaces on TOUR that’s hardly the entire mission, but Morikawa has generally been on autopilot while trying to keep pace with Matsuyama.

The Japanese phenom, on the other hand, got away with a few wayward swings down the stretch – none more notable than the par-4 17th, when Matsuyama lost his drive way to the right only to be bailed out by a fortunate bounce near the cart path. What could have been a bogey (or worse) instead became a birdie opportunity and a tap-in par. He also hit a poor drive on the home hole, only to set up another birdie with a heroic 3-wood from 305 yards out that got to the greenside fringe.

Matsuyama isn’t exactly hacking it: He leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach. But Morikawa has been hitting it tighter, pacing the field in Proximity including a sterling average of 17 feet, 4 inches on Saturday.

Regardless of the name on the trophy, the winning score should exceed 30-under given the expectation of more calm conditions. Neither winner would come as a shock, but I feel like Morikawa (+130) has been a little tighter on the ball-striking front and has more to prove after letting this one slip away in 2023.

It’s hard for me to lay a -150 price in this sort of matchup, where the combatants are largely on equal footing (although Matsuyama starts one shot ahead). In a showdown that could go down to the wire, I’ll take the major champ with the plus-money price and take my chances.

Other finishing position bets to consider:

Will Zalatoris (+330) Top-five finish: Willy Z fired his second round of 65 this week, and he clearly has the long putter working in Hawaii. He’s starting the final round T6 at 19 under but I think this is a great price for him to crack the top five by day’s end.

Ludvig Åberg (+550) Top-10 finish: The Swede finally woke up on the greens Saturday, carding a bogey-free 65. He also tightened up the approach game after some wobbly irons in the second round, and he’ll start the day T21 and four shots outside the top 10. Still, this could be like The RSM Classic where Åberg starts slow and makes a late creep up the leaderboard.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.