Draws and Fades: Tough to look past Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa despite value below at The Sentry

With half The Sentry in the books, it appears a two-horse race according to the oddsmakers, and they are clever to assume so, given the pedigree and course history of Hideki Matsuyama and Collin Morikawa.

And while I too believe your winner will come from this duo, way stranger things have happened in golf tournaments with 36 holes to play, and with that in mind, if you are a believer in any of the chasers, you could find some value on the Kapalua odds board.

Matsuyama put up his second straight 8-under 65 to move to 16-under while Morikawa flashed home late, making five straight birdies on the back nine for his own 65 to be one back of Matsuyama on the leaderboard.

Matsuyama is given the edge by FanDuel, sitting at +240 as the favorite while Morikawa is +270 with the next best on the board being Canadian Corey Conners at +800.

Conners (66) sits two shots behind the leaders, joined by The RSM Classic winner Maverick McNealy (64), first round leader Tom Hoge (68) and Belgium’s Thomas Detry (65) at 14-under. Keegan Bradley (64), Wyndham Clark (64), Harry Hall (65) and Cameron Young (67) are just three shots back at 13-under.

With two rounds down, here are how FanDuel has set the current odds.

• +240: Hideki Matsuyama (-16, first)
• +270: Collin Morikawa (-15, second)
• +800: Corey Conners (-14, T3)
• +1100: Maverick McNealy (-14, T3)
• +1600: Wyndham Clark (-13, T7)
• +1800: Thomas Detry (-14, T3); Cameron Young (-13, T7); Keegan Bradley (-13, T7)
• +2000: Tom Hoge (-14, T3)
• +2800: Harry Hall (-13, T7)

Lay up option (conservative)

OUTRIGHT

Collin Morikawa (+270)

As we said yesterday, only some short-game yips cost Morikawa this title two years ago, and he continues to play well across the board. While Matsuyama is dominating on approach (+4.940), Morikawa is inside the top 12 in all Strokes Gained metrics through two rounds. Either can obviously win, but you get a little more juice on Morikawa while Matsuyama’s putter wasn’t as cooperative as he would have liked on Friday.

Risk/reward options

OUTRIGHT

The putters: Maverick McNealy (+1100), Thomas Detry (+1800), Wyndham Clark (+1600)

As I stated above, I believe the win will come from the top two players on the board. BUT, if you are looking for a chaser, perhaps start with the guys who were good putters throughout last season because clearly, they’ll need to go low on the weekend.

Of the top 10 players on the leaderboard at the halfway mark, only Detry (10th), Clark (19th) and McNealy (T29) were amongst the top 30 putters on TOUR in 2024. We saw eight rounds of 64 on Friday, so we know low ones are out there. Turning a 65 or 64 into a 61 will come with elite putting.

If you also believe one of the top two will prevail, you can still get plus money on a top five for this putting trio.

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