Draws and Fades: Mackenzie Hughes leads charge after surviving tough draw

A clear advantage popped its head up in the second round of The RSM Classic as gusty winds hammered the Seaside Course, leaving those on the Plantation Course to feast. Eleven of the top 14 on the leaderboard pounced.

One day after Seaside averaged 0.243-over par while Plantation was 0.975-under par, the discrepancy was even larger. On Friday, the Seaside was a brutal 3.213-over par for the field while the Plantation was 1.422-under.

Combined, those who played the Seaside/Plantation rotation over the first two rounds had an average 5.853-stroke advantage over those who played the reverse – a huge leg up in the chase for the trophy and, as it turns out, for PGA TOUR cards.

A whopping 48 of the 69 players who made the weekend (where play returns to the Seaside Course for both rounds) played the Seaside/Plantation rotation.

Leading the way was Patrick Fishburn, who shot 8-under 64 at Plantation to move to 11-under and grab a one-shot lead over fellow Plantation players Maverick McNealy and Lee Hodges. Hodges put up a 9-under 63 to make his move.

Young gun Michael Thorbjornsen was the best of the players from the tough side of the draw, moving to 9-under for the week on the Seaside Course on Friday. He sits tied for fourth by another youngster in amateur Luke Clanton.

Michael Kim, Nico Echavarria and Adrien Dumont de Chassart, all Plantation players on Friday, share sixth at 8-under with six players tied for ninth at 7-under. Of those, only Mackenzie Hughes and Kevin Yu played the tougher rotation.

From now on though, it’s Seaside for all.

Here are the latest outright odds via BetMGM Sportsbook:

• +450: Patrick Fishburn (-11, first)
• +450: Maverick McNealy (-10, T2)
• +600: Luke Clanton (-9, T4)
• +800: Lee Hodges (-10, T2)
• +1000: Michael Thorbjornsen (-9, T4)
• +1600: Nico Echavarria (-8, T6)
• +1800: Mackenzie Hughes (-7, T9)
• +1800: Michael Kim (-8, T6)
• +1800: Ludvig Åberg (-5, T17)

Since we now return exclusively to the Seaside Course we can measure the Strokes Gained data of the one round each player has put up so far. And while Fishburn is second on Strokes Gained: Approach, he lost ground on the field on and around the greens which could prove problematic in a weekend shootout with the winds abating.

Instead, the data lean is back to McNealy, who shot 8-under on the Seaside Course on Thursday. He is inside the top 16 of all Strokes Gained metrics from that round. Can he recreate it chasing a first win?

Personally – give me Mackenzie Hughes again! I ride hard having advocated pre-tournament, post-Round 1 and now post-Round 2. Currently four back at +1800, he is a former winner, twice runner-up and the all-time tournament money leader. He survived the bad side of the draw, and if we “gave” him those almost six shots, he’d be leading!

He sits first in SG: Putting, a known strength, and 13th in SG: Approach. He also has nothing to worry about in terms of TOUR card chasing, so can play with freedom.

Now let’s turn our focus to the pursuit for the top 125 in the FedExCup and see if there is a cause to jump on those chasing a job over the weekend.

As it stands, the first four players projected outside the top 125 who have made the cut at The RSM Classic and therefore can still chase down a job are: Joel Dahmen (T49), Henrik Norlander (T49), Hayden Springer (T49) and Dumont de Chassart (T6).

They all need birdies this weekend to push their way in. Currently Dahmen and Dumont de Chassart are just a shot away from where they need, to be but that’s a moving target. Norlander is two shots adrift his needed pace and Springer three shots.

If Springer is the more desperate of the quartet, will he attack more pins? And if he does, would the current +750 for a Top 20 including ties become an intriguing bet? Norlander is +600 and Dahmen +850 for the same finish, but neither of those two need to finish that high. Doing so would certainly secure them a TOUR card, but they can still weigh up risk versus reward … offense versus defense. Springer has to charge.

Dumont de Chassart needs a top-five finish, so he can’t play defense either. He’s +450 for a Top 5 including ties, and considering he played better on Seaside and showed his mettle last week with a T3 with his back against the wall, he remains a solid option in this market.

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