Draws and Fades: Remember chase for TOUR cards in live place betting

Just one round into The RSM Classic and we already have a heavy betting favorite in Maverick McNealy at +300 following his 8-under 62 on the Seaside Course at Sea Island, good enough to be tied for the lead with Michael Thorbjornsen (+800).

McNealy’s round came on the host course, a par 70, while Thorbjornsen’s 8-under 64 came at the easier Plantation Course, hence some of the discrepancy in their current odds.

Andrew Novak is well poised in third at 7-under from the Plantation Course, where Chandler Phillips shot 6-under to sit at T4 with Adrien Dumont de Chassart who tackled the Seaside Course Thursday.

The Seaside Course averaged 70.24, or just over par for the field on Thursday while the Plantation Course was at 71.03, almost an entire shot under par and more than a shot of difference than the host course.

As such, the oddsmakers believe McNealy has the chance to separate himself on Friday when he hits the easier Plantation before returning to the Seaside course for the final two rounds.

The key, if you are looking for value in the outright market, might be figuring out who will match McNealy’s efforts on the harder Seaside on Friday. The majority of winners in recent times at RSM have started their tournament on the Plantation before three straight loops of Seaside.

Here are the latest outright odds via BetMGM Sportsbook:

• +300: Maverick McNealy (8-under at Seaside, T1)
• +800: Michael Thorbjornsen (8-under at Plantation, T1)
• +900: Andrew Novak (7-under at Plantation, third)
• +1400: Patrick Rodgers (5-under at Seaside, T6)
• +1800: Harris English (5-under at Plantation, T6)
• +1800: Michael Kim (5-under at Seaside, T6)
• +2200: Keith Mitchell (5-under at Plantation, T6)
• +2200: Austin Eckroat (5-under at Plantation, T6)
• +2800: Adrien Dumont de Chassart (6-under at Seaside, T4)
• +3000: Chandler Phillips (6-under at Plantation, T4)

If I were to focus on the players heading to Seaside Course for a potential three straight days, I would start with Harris English at +1800. He is a Sea Island native and was on my pre-tournament radar given he’s posted three straight top-15s this fall. While we have limited stats to work with from the Plantation Course, we do know he was 5-for-5 Scrambling on Thursday and only needed 26 putts. If he uses his local knowledge better on approach at Seaside Course and maintains the rage with his putter he could make a move.

Don’t sleep on Mackenzie Hughes at +4000 either. A former winner and twice runner-up, up he sits just four shots off the pace.

But as we mentioned in the leadup to this week, the game within the game is where to continue to look for betting options. With TOUR cards and Signature Event status on the line for many, we can get a read on who might be playing well under the pressure of needing to and bet accordingly.

Here are the latest Top 10 including ties odds from DraftKings:

• -350: Maverick McNealy (8-under at Seaside, T1)
• -140: Andrew Novak (7-under at Plantation, third)
• -110: Michael Thorbjornsen (8-under at Plantation, T1)
• +105: Patrick Rodgers (5-under at Seaside, T6)
• +125: Harris English (5-under at Plantation, T6)
• +125: Michael Kim (5-under at Seaside, T6)
• +160: Austin Eckroat (5-under at Plantation, T6)
• +180: Chandler Phillips (6-under at Plantation, T4)
• +190: Keith Mitchell (5-under at Plantation, T6)
• +220: Adrien Dumont de Chassart (6-under at Seaside, T4)

Immediately I am intrigued at the +220 for Adrien Dumont de Chassart who sits T4 after playing the harder Seaside Course. Dumont de Chassart, is well aware he needs to finish in the top five this week if he is to have a chance to retain a full TOUR card in the top 125 of the standings. His Thursday round projects him moving from 142nd to 124th although there is a lot of golf left to be played yet. While this has not been a great season, the Belgian was tied for third last week in Bermuda and has continued on. Perhaps he is the type of player who needs to be under pressure to perform better. At least we know he will continue to chase birdies to stay in the mix and give himself a chance!

What about further down the leaderboard though?

Here are the latest Top 20 including ties odds from DraftKings:

• -900: Maverick McNealy (8-under at Seaside, T1)
• -340: Andrew Novak (7-under at Plantation, third)
• -250: Michael Thorbjornsen (8-under at Plantation, T1)
• -225: Patrick Rodgers (5-under at Seaside, T6)
• -190: Harris English (5-under at Plantation, T6)
• -175: Michael Kim (5-under at Seaside, T6)
• -150: Austin Eckroat (5-under at Plantation, T6)
• -140: Chandler Phillips (6-under at Plantation, T4)
• -115: Keith Mitchell (5-under at Plantation, T6)
• +100: Adrien Dumont de Chassart (6-under at Seaside, T4)

Not on that list, given he is currently +450 for a Top 20, is Wesley Bryan. Bryan came into the week as No. 125 on the FedExCup points list knowing a good finish will solidify his TOUR card but a weak one could put him at risk. A 2-under 70 at Plantation Course has him T34 and facing a crossroads on Friday. Go low on the Seaside Course to make the cut and get one step closer, or struggle and leave his fate in the hands of others. With four top 25s this Fall, Bryan has been clutch so far ... and if you think he can be again, the live number for a Top 20 is healthy.

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