Draws and Fades: Plus money picks abound for Butterfield Bermuda Championship place markets

With leaderboard volatility comes betting opportunity ahead of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship final round at Port Royal Golf Club.

While there is certainly still a battle for victory between a handful of contenders don’t be seduced by the outright markets alone. The Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20 markets (where ties are included) bring chances to find the players who could make significant charges up the leaderboard.

Quite simply, there could be plenty of twists and turns yet as the 35mph winds continue to smash the field. There are birdies abound everywhere but also big numbers. Wesley Bryan moved up 42 places on the leaderboard with his Saturday 10-under 61. Chances are someone will make a run from outside, to inside, each placement zone.

As for the tournament winner, the most likely are now co-leaders Andrew Novak and Rafael Campos or third-placed Justin Lower. Novak and Campos are 16-under via incredible 9-under 63s in the windiest conditions of the week. Lower, in control for most of the tournament, added a battling 68 to sit at 15-under and alone in third just one back.

Bryan’s 61 moved him from T46 to fourth place at 13-under with Lucas Glover, Troy Merritt, and Sam Ryder tied fifth and with hopes they can go low Sunday from four back at 12-under.

Here are the latest outright odds via BetMGM Sportsbook:

• +150: Andrew Novak (-16, T1)
• +300: Justin Lower (-15, 3rd); Rafael Campos (-16, T1)
• +1200: Wesley Bryan (-13, 4th)
• +2500: Lucas Glover (-12, T5)
• +4500: Sam Ryder (-12, T5)
• +5000 or higher: The rest of the field

Personally, I am looking for a rebound round from Justin Lower (+300) and that is where I’d be looking for the winner. Without his best ball-striking on the back nine Saturday Lower still showed great grit to stay in the mix. His bogey putt on 18 after finding the water off the tee will be critical for his momentum and mindset. Still leads the field in Putting Average, 3-Putt Avoidance and Bogey Avoidance and is second in the field in Par 4 Scoring and third in the field in Par 3 Scoring and Total Birdies.

Here are the latest Top 5 including ties odds from DraftKings:

• -750: Andrew Novak (-16, T1)
• -400: Justin Lower (-15, 3rd)
• -350: Rafael Campos (-16, T1)
• -105: Wesley Bryan (-13, 4th)
• +135: Lucas Glover (-12, T5)
• +230: Sam Ryder (-12, T5)
• +280: Patrick Rodgers (-11, T8)
• +320: Alex Smalley (-11, T8)
• +330: Troy Merritt (-12, T5)

Call me crazy but when it comes to a plus money option here, I’m looking at the player who “needs” the high finish the least but still has plenty to gain from it. Lucas Glover (+135) is already exempt into next season via TOUR wins but he now has a chance to push into the 51-60 bracket in the FedExCup Fall and with it a chance at the first two Signature Events of 2025. He currently projects to 57th and as a known ball-striker can get the ball through the wind better than most. Third in Par 3 Scoring and Bogey Avoidance this week and fourth in Par 4 Scoring.

Here are the latest plus money odds options for a Top 10 including ties from DraftKings:

• +100: Alex Smalley (-11, T8)
• +105: Troy Merritt (-12, T5)
• +115: Vince Whaley (-11, T8)
• +120: Hayden Springer (-11, T8), Ryan Moore (-11, T8)
• +125: David Lipsky (-11, T8), Chad Ramey (-11, T8)
• +130: Ben Griffin (-10, T15)

Of the options above I am giving one last shout-out to Ryan Moore (+120) to stay in the top 10. He was T5 a year ago and leads the field this week in Total birdies, Par Breakers and Driving Accuracy in these winds. Second in the field in Par 4 Scoring and fourth in Putting Average.

If you are looking for a Bryan-like mover at larger odds what about Francesco Molinari (+450 Top 10, +120 Top 20)? He has ground to make up, sitting T23 at 9-under, but with 18 birdies he’s third in the field. If he can limit his mistakes and continue to circle birdies, he could be a candidate for a surge up the leaderboard. Top 20 and ties bet seems a good chance to me.

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