Draws and Fades: Justin Lower may go lower but value is in Matti Schmid, Bermuda chasers

Justin Lower has thrown down the gauntlet to the rest of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship field as he surged to a two-shot lead at the near halfway point at Port Royal Golf Course.

Lower, T2 a week ago at the World Wide Technology Championship, has continued his good form, forcing those behind to keep pace should they have designs of taking home the trophy in windy conditions. A second consecutive 6-under 65 has him at 12-under for the tournament, two ahead of Robby Shelton (64) and Ryan Moore (65) at 10-under.

Sam Ryder showed low scores are still out there despite strong gusts, with his 62 moving him to 9-under and a tie for fourth with veteran Kevin Kisner (66). David Lipsky (66), Matti Schmid (64), Francesco Molinari (66) and Greyson Sigg (through 16 holes) were T6 at 8-under when darkness halted play.

While Lower looks determined to continue his impressive efforts over the weekend, the current +250 betting favorite odds are not something to snap up with so many double and triple bogeys lurking in high winds. Instead, you need to look lower than Lower on the betting boards for value at this point.

That’s not to say he can’t win. Of course, the man ranked first in the field in Putting Average, Sand Saves, Par-4 Scoring, Bounce Back, Three-Putt Avoidance and Bogey Avoidance is in great shape. His odds just aren’t super actionable from this point.

Here are the latest odds via BetMGM Sportsbook and other players to consider from here.

• +250: Justin Lower (-12, first)
• +1000: Ryan Moore (-10, T2)
• +1400: Greyson Sigg (-8 through 16, T6); Robby Shelton (-10, T2); Matti Schmid (-8, T6)
• +1600: Sam Ryder (-9, T4)
• +2000: Lucas Glover (-7, T10)
• +2500: David Lipsky (-8, T6); Andrew Novak (-7, T10)

Big odds

Vince Whaley, 7-under (+4000): If you are looking for a potential long shot from here, enabling you to not spend too much outlay, then Whaley could be your guy. He will need a low Saturday, but he comes in with two T16s in his last four starts and top 10s in his last two Bermuda starts. Continues to lead the field in the tough Par-3 Scoring, a recipe for contention in Bermuda. He is also tied best at Sand Saves and third in Scrambling. Importantly for someone looking to make a splash with a low round … he’s second in the field in Bogey Avoidance. The +180 for a Top 10 (including ties) at DraftKings is certainly worth a look.

Shorter odds

Matti Schmid, 8-under (+1400): I hope you listened yesterday when I suggested this man at +5000! But if not, the 16 to 1 on offer could still turn tasty. Three top 16s in his last four starts and was third in Bermuda a year ago. While Lower has not eaten up the par 5s, Schmid is tied best in the field on the long holes, the spot he can eat into the lead should he maintain the rage. Also tied first in the field in Sand Saves and is T4 in One-Putt Percentage.

Ryan Moore, 10-under (+1000): Quite frankly, if you didn’t get on Moore at the +10000 I suggested pre-tournament, or the +4000 last night, then you have probably missed the boat. At this point, as much as I think Moore can continue contending, you might have missed the juice. But if I was to stay bullish on the five-time TOUR winner I would mention again that he knows how to play in the wind given his Las Vegas background and he was fifth here a year ago. I would also point out he leads the field in Total Birdies, is second in Driving Accuracy despite the winds and second in Putting Average and Par-4 Scoring.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.