Draws and Fades: Will Max Greyserman get across finish line in Mexico?

I’m old enough to recall Kevin Kisner’s 2015 season, one that saw him lose three different playoffs in the span of a few months only to finally break through for his first PGA TOUR win at the year’s final tournament stop, The RSM Classic.

Could Max Greyserman be on track to produce a similar capstone this week at the World Wide Technology Championship?

Greyserman has been a perpetual bridesmaid in recent months, including a T2 finish two weeks ago at the ZOZO Championship. That was his third runner-up finish in his last five starts, dating back to the 3M Open and including the Wyndham Championship where he let the trophy slip away over the final few holes.

Greyserman’s recent run even had our colleague Brady Kannon asking oddsmakers to price up the potential for the former Duke Blue Devil to finish exactly second ahead of the tournament start in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, with only three events left on the FedExCup Fall calendar.

Well, he’s at it again. Greyserman closed his second-round 64 with an eagle to grab a share of the lead alongside Echavarria, the man who outlasted him two weeks ago in Japan. The duo sit at 12-under, one shot ahead of Carson Young, with TOUR winners like Austin Eckroat and Tom Hoge still within striking distance at the halfway point.

Updated odds to win the World Wide Technology Championship (via BetMGM)

• +225: Max Greyserman (-12)
• +500: Nico Echavarria (-12)
• +900: Carson Young (-11)
• +1200: Maverick McNealy (-9)
• +1400: Austin Eckroat (-9)
• +2000: Dylan Wu (-10)

So heading into the third round at El Cardonal at Diamante, where Greyserman will look to keep pace with and surpass Echavarria, what do the in-play options look like? Let’s take a look.

Max Greyserman (+225) to break through

Greyserman is undoubtedly one of the top talents in the field, and he’s played like it through 36 holes: taking advantage of heaps of birdie opportunities, squaring only three bogeys and leading the field in Putts per GIR. But the question remains: have the lessons from Minnesota, Greensboro and Japan made enough of an impact to alter how he handles the pressure down the stretch?

It's a bit of a chicken-and-egg scenario, much as it was with Kisner nine years ago. Greyserman doesn’t have what it takes…until he shows us that he does. That could be as soon as this weekend. But with prior TOUR winners in the mix and Echavarria riding momentum, this price is pretty short to hop on at this point.

Nico Echavarria (+500) to go back-to-back

Like Greyserman and Kisner, there’s a recent parallel to point to. In 2019 Brendon Todd broke through for a win in Bermuda, then went on to win in Mexico in his next start (with a week off in between). No one is mistaking Narashino for El Cardonal, but as they say, form travels. Such is the case this week with the Colombian, who put up a tidy bogey-free 63 on Friday.

I’d much rather buy a few shares of Echavarria than Greyserman at this point, but you’re still paying a premium given he teed off at +6000 on Thursday.

Maverick McNealy (+1200) to end the drought

No disrespect to Carson Young, who caught Brady Kannon’s eye on Wednesday and whose second-round 61 is the low score of the week, but my eye was drawn to McNealy’s long-lasting pursuit of a maiden TOUR win. Greyserman arguably has had more close calls, but McNealy has had the longer path toward a possible victory. Now he heads into the weekend T5 and three shots back, well within reach after a bogey-free 66 in the second round.

McNealy was frustrated to fall short of a spot in the BMW Championship earlier this season, which would have netted him access to all the Signature Events in 2025. While he’s well-positioned to get two Signature starts via the Aon Next 10, a victory would not only shed a well-sized monkey from his back but would instantly upgrade his schedule for next year.

The game is there, the form is there, but can he convert the opportunity? At +1200 I’m certainly intrigued.

Ryan Gerard (+6000) to be the next Matt McCarty

McCarty turned heads last month when he went from Korn Ferry Tour grad to PGA TOUR winner, claiming the Black Desert Championship. Gerard is part of the new crop for 2025, whose full-fledged card won’t kick in until the Sony Open in January, but he’s playing this week and making the most of an unexpected start after Monday qualifying into the 120-man field.

Gerard is no stranger to PGA TOUR competition, having made 22 starts last season. He heads into the weekend among a large group tied for eighth at 8-under, an impressive comeback given he was 3-over through his first seven holes on Thursday. All he’s done since is play 29 holes in 11-under, including a 66 Friday, to move into the mix.

It’s a bit of a longshot, but with a price to match heading into what could be an unpredictable third round south of the border.

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