Draws and Fades: Will draw advantage help Taylor Pendrith keep pack at bay at Shriners Children's Open?

Taylor Pendrith got a good break at the Shriners Children’s Open. Now we’ll see what he can do with it.

As my colleague Ben Everill outlined on Thursday, draw bias is a real factor this week in Las Vegas. High winds whipped across TPC Summerlin Friday, leading to a four-hour delay of play to start the day. The late-early field that faced the difficult conditions for most of their first 36 holes suffered. The early-late crew, headlined by Pendrith’s opening 61, sat back and watched most of the carnage Friday from afar before playing a handful of holes.

No one got within two shots of Pendrith’s 10-under total until nearly dusk, when Rico Hoey went birdie-eagle to reach 9-under before officials blew the horn. It means that the Canadian maintained a lead despite playing six holes in Even before darkness fell at TPC Summerlin. It also means he’s still the man to beat in the eyes of oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook, with a long day ahead on Saturday.

Updated odds to win Shriners Children’s Open (via BetMGM)

• +275: Taylor Pendrith
• +1200: J.T. Poston
• +1600: Harry Hall, Davis Thompson, Kurt Kitayama, Matti Schmid, Matt Kuchar
• +2000: J.J. Spaun, Rico Hoey
• +2200: Doug Ghim

The draw bias is not expected to even out, with calmer conditions developing Saturday when Pendrith and others from his wave will play the majority of their second (and third) rounds. Knowing that players like Pendrith, Hoey and J.T. Poston got a leg up on the field, how should bettors approach in-play targets with others on the leaderboard already in the house until Round 3 resumes? Let’s take a look.

Draw

J.J. Spaun (+2000)

My colleague Chris Breece had Spaun as his top pre-tournament selection, so I’m late to the game here. But any injury concerns from a withdrawal at the Sanderson Farms Championship appear to have been solved. Spaun has gained more strokes per round over his last five starts at TPC Summerlin than any other player, and that shined through during rounds of 65-69 this week.

Spaun has a TOUR win to his credit, unlike Hoey and Ghim among those on the leaderboard that he’ll compete with over the weekend, and at seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green thus far he can lean heavily on strong ball-striking to stay in the hunt. Expect this in-play number to be shorter come Saturday night.

Fade

Taylor Pendrith

There’s just too much golf left, and he didn’t capitalize on a chance to put distance between himself and the field Friday evening. Pendrith has successfully brought the Presidents Cup momentum with him to Sin City, and he flirted with a 59 in the opening round. But one good round will not a Shriners title deliver, as the winning score is expected to approach 20-under despite Friday’s blustery conditions. Simply put, Pendrith has work to do.

Pendrith hit some great approach shots Friday evening, but his work around the greens was woeful – a big reason why he was unable to put a circle on the scorecard. The short-game issues will need to be corrected in short order should he remain the man to beat and challenge for a wire-to-wire triumph, but the margin thins with every hole.

When they finished their second rounds, players like Ghim, Spaun, Davis Thompson and Kurt Kitayama – all in the house at 8-under – faced a realistic prospect that they might trail by five or six shots before they got back on the tee box. Instead, the overnight margin is two.

Pendrith is likely to get things going Saturday morning when play resumes, and he could very well have a multi-shot lead when Round 2 concludes. But this is no runaway. Expect those in close pursuit to have a little extra pep in their step when they get to the course Saturday, and don’t run to the window to get a piece of Pendrith at this price which is largely impacted by the work he did Thursday – not the issues that lurked just below the surface at the start of his second round.

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