Draws and Fades: Case for and against Patton Kizzire and chasers at Procore Championship

Patton Kizzire took control of the Procore Championship at Silverado Resort in Napa, California on Saturday, setting himself up for a great tilt at a third PGA TOUR victory.

But while the 38-year-old is in great shape at 18-under par, David Lipsky and a couple of motivated Canadians are among those not prepared to give up the chase for the FedExCup Fall’s first trophy.

Kizzire’s 5-under 67 on Saturday gave him a four-shot buffer over Lipsky (70) who sits alone at 14-under. There is another shot gap to the next raft of chasers, which is headlined by soon-to-be International Team Presidents Cup team members Corey Conners (66) and Mackenzie Hughes (66).

They are joined at 13-under by Greyson Sigg (66) and Patrick Fishburn (70) while Wilson Furr (64), Ben Silverman (65) and defending champion Sahith Theegala (69) are the next best in a tie for seventh at 12-under, six off the pace.

Here are the latest outright odds from BetMGM Sportsbook with a round to play.

• -110: Patton Kizzire (-18, 1st)
• +700: Corey Conners (-13, T3)
• +1100: Sahith Theegala (-12, T7)
• +1100: Mackenzie Hughes (-13, T3)
• +1200: David Lipsky (-14, 2nd)
• +1400: Patrick Fishburn (-13, T3)
• +2200: Greyson Sigg (-13, T3)
• +3300: Ben Silverman -12, T7)
• +6600: Wilson Furr (-12, T7)

Kizzire is looking to best a previous runner-up finish at Silverado in October of 2016 and should go on to get it done. But this week has seen a handful of 64s out there so the chase will be on.

Here are some reasons why each contender can win, and perhaps why they won’t.

Patton Kizzire -110 (-18, First)

Case for: He has a very handy four-shot lead and is a former winner on TOUR and former runner-up of this event. Leads the field in multiple categories including Par Breakers, Total Birdies, Par 3 Birdies, Birdie or Better Percentage, Putts per Round and Putting Inside 10-feet. Is second in the field in Par 3 Scoring, Bounce Back, Back 9 Scoring, Proximity to Hole and Strokes Gained: Putting. Sits fifth in SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green.

Case against: If there is any perceived “weakness” it could be his SG: Off the Tee this week, ranking 34th. He was 112th in the metric last season and if there is trouble to be found on Sunday it will come by missing fairways at Silverado. Honestly, though, the biggest battle will be nerves. It’s been a long time since he won the 2018 Sony Open in Hawaii, the last of his two wins.

Corey Conners +700 (-13, T3)

Case for: Conners is a ball-striking wizard with nothing to lose given he’s starting five shots back. Ranking second in SG: Off-the-Tee this week, fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green and seventh on SG: Approach the Canadian can make something happen IF he can get some putts to drop. At 29th in SG: Putting this week he’s actually rolling the rock well for his standards… but will need even better Sunday. Has put up one tournament-low 64 this week. Needs another.

Case against: Five is a tough deficit to make up without help and he’s struggled in Scrambling this week, ranking T59 of the 65 players to make the cut. He’s also struggling on the Par 3s, a key component to success at Silverado as they are routinely the toughest holes. Sits T53 in Par 3 Scoring.

Sahith Theegala +1100 (-12, T7)

Case for: He’s the defending champion of the event coming off a third-place finish in the FedExCup. Sits inside the top 17 in SG: Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee, Approach and Putting and leads the field in Total Driving. If anyone can get hot and go super low it’s this guy… but he will need to, given he’s giving up a six-shot lead.

Case against: A distant 49th in SG: Around the Green has hurt his chances to defend this week. As has the fact he’s T50 in Putts per Round. He’s going to need to have a boatload of one-putts on Sunday to have any hope.

Mackenzie Hughes +1100 (-13, T3)

Case for: Full of confidence after being picked for the Presidents Cup, Hughes is the most likely of the chasers to get unconscious with his putter. Leading the field this week in SG: Approach, Sand Saves, Scrambling, Bounce Back and Par 4 Scoring and sitting second in GIR and Bogey Avoidance, and third in SG: Tee-to-Green leaves Hughes as a player to watch. He is fourth in SG: Putting on TOUR but only 31st this week… so improvement is possible.

Case against: Sitting T61 in Total Driving doesn’t look great and he’s T54 of 65 players in Par 5 Scoring, the place he will absolutely need to attack on Sunday.

Your winner likely comes from above but Lipsky is riding a week with his putter, ranking fifth in SG: Putting and Sigg sits second in SG: Approach and eighth in SG: Around the Green. Before a late Saturday fade, Fishburn was playing great. He ranks fourth in SG: Off the Tee and seventh in SG: Around the Green.

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