Live Bets: J.J. Spaun proving pre-tournament bettors right at Procore Championship

Before a tee shot was hit in Napa this week the majority of the money at BetMGM came in for a surprise player in the outright market.

It wasn’t defending champion Sahith Theegala. It wasn’t other soon-to-be Presidents Cup players like Wyndham Clark or Corey Conners. It was for J.J. Spaun.

It saw his opening odds of +4000 slashed to +3000 and through 36 holes it seems bettors might have been on to something as Spaun moved his way into a tie for fourth at 10-under, just three behind leader Patton Kizzire.

Now the 2022 Valero Texas Open champion's odds sit at +650 to grab a second victory over the weekend, odds lower than they would be had the mountain of support at higher odds not flooded in.

Only Kizzire (+550), who like Spaun shot a 7-under 65 on Friday, and Theegala (+600), who sits at 9-under for the tournament, have shorter odds at this point. Kizzire leads by one from overnight leader David Lipsky (67) and by two from Patrick Fishburn (65).

Joining Spaun on 10-under for the week is veteran Matt Kuchar after a 64 on Friday. Three players sit in T7 on 8-under while soon-to-be International Team members Conners, Min Woo Lee and Mackenzie Hughes are part of an 11-way tie for 10th at 7-under.

The current odds at BetMGM now read as follows.

• +550: Patton Kizzire (-13, 1st)
• +600: Sahith Theegala (-9, 6th)
• +650: J.J. Spaun (-10, T4)
• +700: Patrick Fishburn (-11, 3rd)
• +900: Matt Kuchar (-10, T4)
• +1000: David Lipsky (-12, 2nd)
• +1600: Corey Conners (-7, T10)
• +2200: Min Woo Lee (-7, T10)
• +3300: Tom Hoge (-7, T10)

With 36 holes still to play, let’s look at some live betting options across the markets, including if Spaun is going to make a lot of folks happy.

Outright

J.J. Spaun +650

If you’re not on Spaun yet, honestly these are not the best odds, but in saying that… I like his stat line so far against the other contenders. Clearly Strokes Gained: Approach has been the metric through two rounds with the top five on the leaderboard housing four of the top five in SG: Approach.

But while Kizzire, Lipsky and Kuchar have needed it to prop up some deficiencies elsewhere, Spaun has been solid across the board. He’s second in Approach, and 18th in SG: Off-the-Tee, a historically important stat at Silverado Resort. He’s also a respectable 37th in SG: Putting.

Spaun is also coming off back-to-back TOUR top-10s and entered the week third in terms of Strokes Gained: Total in his last five starts. He was T11 in his last start in Napa also.

Kizzire is second in SG: Putting this week, a standard he needs to continue, and may well do so, but Lipsky is losing strokes off the tee, a recipe for trouble over the weekend. Kuchar has been even worse off the tee but leads on approach. I still like him for a top 10 like I advocated pre-tournament.

Selfishly I still hold high hopes for Theegala, my pre-tournament pick to make a run but the Spaun bettors must have sensed something. Hopefully you got a piece of the +220 for Patrick Fishburn for a top 10 last night as he remains in contention.

Top 10 (including ties)

Corey Conners -115 via DraftKings

Cream should rise to the top over the weekend and Conners has plenty to play for ahead of his home country Presidents Cup. Sits seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee so far and 35th in SG: Approach, a number I have no doubt he will improve over the final 36 holes. Is also putting well this week, a sign he will contend.

Top 10 (including ties)

Min Woo Lee +115 via DraftKings

Starting on the same score as Conners, but with a bit more juice is Lee. The Aussie also has the Presidents Cup to prepare for and won’t hold back in a chase for the top of the leaderboard. His driver, which can sometimes be erratic, has been decent, ranking 22nd in SG: Off-the-Tee. If he keeps that up, he can make birdies in bunches and fly up the leaderboard.