Live bets: Mark Hubbard chasing historic week in Napa at Procore Championship

Mark Hubbard forgot to enter the Procore Championship and was forced to go through Monday qualifying to get a start. Now the popular player represents a value live bet in the outright markets for those teeing it up in Napa.

The opening to the FedExCup Fall at Silverado Resort in wine-country California saw David Lipsky set the pace with a 7-under 65 to be one shot clear of Scotland’s Martin Laird (66) and American Patton Kizzire (66).

Hubbard was one of five players to shoot 5-under 67, however, this came despite a triple bogey on the 17th hole, his eighth of the round. A 30 in his closing nine showed how worry-free his mindset is ahead of the final three rounds.

Joel Dahmen, Kevin Dougherty, Wilson Furr and Kevin Streelman were those joining Hubbard in a tie for fourth just two off the lead while there are 36 players within four of the top of the leaderboard.

Pre-tournament favorite Sahith Theegala remains in the mix after a 69, while fellow soon-to-be Presidents Cup debutant Min Woo Lee shot one better at 68. Max Homa, a two-time champion at Silverado opened with a 71 to be T54 as he searches for form ahead of the biennial team event in Montreal.

Theegala remains the betting favorite at +1100 with BetMGM while others have now shifted in behind him as follows:

• +1100: Sahith Theegala (-3, T22)
• +1200: Min Woo Lee (-4, T9)
• +1400: Wyndham Clark (-2, T37)
• +1600: Mark Hubbard (-5, T4)
• +1800: J.J. Spaun (-3, T22)
• +2200: Patton Kizzire (-6, T2)
• +2200: David Lipsky (-7, 1st)
• +2500: Keith Mitchell (-3, T22)
• +2800: Luke Clanton (-2, T37)

With 54 holes still to play, let’s look at some live betting options across the markets. I’m still holding out hope for my chalky pre-tournament outright pick of Theegala, but another guy I highlighted in the lead-up is on my radar also.

Outright

Mark Hubbard +1600

Call me a sucker for a great storyline, but I just can’t ignore Hubbard. I threw him up as my pre-tournament longshot at +5500, so hopefully a bunch of you are already on him after his crazy mishap in forgetting to register and then casually going off and winning the Monday Qualifier. Hubbard dropped four shots in back-to-back holes Thursday yet still managed nine birdies on his round to be in the event up to his eyeballs. He is looking to be the fifth player in TOUR history to win as a Monday qualifier, the first since Corey Conners in 2019.

Losing over half a stroke to the field (-0.659) in SG: Approach wasn’t ideal but again, -2.42 of that came from two holes. He ranks inside the top 25 of Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Around the Green and Putting (6th), and of those in the mix has the most likely “improvement” based on his 2024 season metrics. He also has three results inside the top 21 here from his last four starts. Hubbard explained post-round how a change in putter and mental resolve was helping his form.

Top 10 (including ties)

Patrick Fishburn +220 via DraftKings

Already sitting on the bubble of a top-10 finish, I continue to like Fishburn as a data-backed play. He had three top 15s in his last four starts and a +2.689 SG: Total over his last five starts, the best of the entire field coming in. Most importantly, his strength is SG: Off-the-Tee and with Silverado fairways some of the toughest to hit, great play off the tee always helps. Inside the top 15 in SG: Off-the-Tee on Thursday with improvement to come.

Top 20 (including ties)

Kevin Dougherty +160 via DraftKings

Like my thinking on Fishburn above, Dougherty is a stud at SG: Off the Tee, ranking second on TOUR last season. He led the field in the metric on Thursday, which is the reason why I am going to try to ignore the fact he got to T4 mainly via two eagles, including one from 41 yards. I am expecting some regression from him on the greens but am hopeful he can continue to play well enough off the tee to remain inside the top 20.