Draws and Fades: Avoid leader Scottie Scheffler in live betting options

Scottie Scheffler allowed the wide margin to close a little on Friday but you still have to assume he’s on his way to winning the TOUR Championship and with it the FedExCup.

Scheffler’s overnight seven-shot lead was whittled to four after the second round at East Lake Golf Club but the Texan remains in control of the season-long race.

Scheffler added to his Thursday 65 with a 5-under 66 to move to 21-under for the tournament. It left the six-time winner this season four shots ahead of Collin Morikawa at 17-under.

Morikawa produced the round of the tournament, a very tidy 8-under 63, to be one of just a handful of players who remain a realistic chance.

Xander Schauffele is five off the lead at 16-under, the likely only other contender given Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala and Adam Scott share fourth at 12-under, nine shots adrift.

The oddsmakers at BetMGM see it the same way with Scheffler the -350 favorite, Schauffele at +550 and Morikawa at +700 before a huge drop to Clark at +10000.

Updated odds to win the TOUR Championship (via BetMGM)

• -350: Scottie Scheffler (-21)
• +550: Xander Schauffele (-16)
• +700: Collin Morikawa (-17)
• +10000: Wyndham Clark (-12)
• +15000: Adam Scott (-12), Sam Burns (-11)
• +20000: Sahith Theegala (-12)
• +50000: Hideki Matsuyama (-9), Rory McIlroy (-8)

While Scheffler gave up a six-shot lead at East Lake two years ago this is a different beast. For starters, he’s a much better player and the restoration of the course has also helped his previous struggles.

You can certainly jump on Morikawa’s odds now if you feel lucky, but I wouldn’t be loading up. And I wouldn’t be touching -350 odds either just because two days is a long time in life and unforeseen things can happen.

Instead you could look around at other markets. I’ve homed in on the top five market from DraftKings where I’ve found one player I can see moving in, and another who may move out.

Draw

Sam Burns +135 for Top 5 including ties via DraftKings

At 11-under Burns currently sits in seventh spot on the leaderboard, one spot out of cashing this bet. While I have concerns about whether my Australian mate Adam Scott can maintain his great putting so far over the weekend, I expect Burns to lift his efforts on the greens. While Burns is inside the top 10 of SG: Off-the-Tee, Approach and Around-the-Green he’s a distant 26th in the 30-man field in Putting. This is his usual strength. I’m hoping the learning curve of the opening two rounds kicks in and he makes a move up the boards. He finished inside the top five in the first two Playoffs events, as well.

Fade

Adam Scott +135 for Top 5 including ties via DraftKings

This feels almost sacrilegious to write but I don’t feel like this number is juicy enough when it comes to suggesting Scott will remain in the top five. At T4 right now off the back gaining +4.872 strokes in SG: Putting he looks vulnerable. We saw at the BMW Championship he couldn’t maintain lofty putting standards all week and while the fact he sits third in SG: Off-the-Tee is very encouraging… his 29th of 30 players in SG: Approach. If that number stays, he can’t possibly stay up this high with the likes of Burns, Ludvig Åberg and Rory McIlroy closing in.